Laying the Draw Strategy: Betfair Football Trading...

Laying the draw has to be one of the most profitable and oldest strategies on Betfair.

But why is this?

Simply put, football is one of the largest sports on Betfair's exchange. Everybody understands the mechanics of how a game works and it's much easier to bet on something you know about and enjoy.

But does it work anymore? We'll take a more in-depth look via this article…

What is laying the draw?

Laying the draw is a Betfair trading strategy that is built around a football match that contains goals. The beauty of this strategy is that, you do not need to pick the winner. You just need to pick a game that contains goals. Of course, this means how profitable you are depends largely on match selection. But there also needs to be an edge in the price.

When would use this strategy?

Typically, most people target half time football odds.

Why? Because the price is compressed (in comparison to original starting price) meaning, there is less liability and more potential upside. Further to that, it's quite likely there's additional pressure for players to score within the second half. This makes it quite easy to see where the potential is with this strategy. After all, we’re here to win.

Another popular time to use a lay the draw strategy is when you may anticipate a very high scoring match, between teams of a similar level. It stands to reason. The harder part is knowing when to lay the draw in this kind of situation…

When is the best time to lay the draw?

Obviously, the later you can leave your entry, the better price you're going to get. But, you need to be realistic with this. Laying the draw is not about out-right betting.

Personally, I would suggest to lay the draw at the begging of half time, within a competitive match. This is because you're not likely to be the only person laying the draw. Which, in-turn is likely to affect the half-time draw odds. If the price drifts a little, you’re left in a position where it’s possible to scale out a portion of your initial stake, offsetting liability for profit.

Opening your trade from this kind of position is perfect. However, it doesn't mean there's going to be any goals. For this reason you’ll need to focus on when the best time to exit. When that is, will vary depending on the circumstances.

Match circumstances:

When using this strategy you’ll want to look at before the match characteristics before it even starts. Considering things like the lineup, which players are missing and are the star players playing? Have they just come on? Are they refreshed and ready to go? Game conditions, along with motivation to score, such as; are they playing at home? Is there significant statistics to show you the average goal time has already passed? Have there been any recent head-to-head situations that reflect the up and coming match?

Finally, it’s right to be thinking about the current market price. Is the draw price currently compressed? Or are there any biased reactions within the market, be it under or overreactions? It's not unusual to find that significant time decay occurs during the second half of any football match. This alone could be something to think about.

Lay the draw extra’s:


If you require any additional tips to lay the draw, then have a look here for a more fuller, in depth explanation.

Forum Discussion: Laying the draw HERE

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