draw inflation tool

[Thomson]

There was a big move in denmark v germany 2.5 market a couple of hours ago, AUQ was available @9 for a few minutes while "science" said new price should be around 7, look at it now

Sorry but that info is incorrect...If you look at 'traded and available' on AUQ you will see 2k traded =1k each side at 9....this was 2 hours after the market formed.
Since then the market has adjusted according to opinion....Brave man that ties up serious coin that early...So it gets matched in 5's+10's...Agree with Custard this is Bollocks......Graphs are good to show what has happened and this proves your out of order to highlight this example......

[doubleback]

Doubleback, what did you end up using as the inflation function? Seems to be somewhat empiric whether people are using geometric distribution, Bernoulli or whatever.

I am using a geometric function that contain three additional parameters for 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2.
After putting down the groundwork, I am looking at cutting down the time it takes to model each game, which means improving my excel skills (as you are aware of, from another fred!). I've got the time it takes to model a game down from 30 minutes, to 10 minutes, with additional time savings in the pipeline. This will allow me to run simultaneous models with tweaks in the forthcoming Premiership season ...

I'm quite looking forward to what the new season brings and will be using my model to identify value. The concept of using a model to trade pre-match seems interesting, I noticed a similar phenomenon from the few games I modelled last season, where on some matches, the odds moved towards my model. Whether there is any long term profit in this, I don't know, It's something I will look at. I guess if it is a profitable strategy, the proof will be in the pudding and if one were to pay for a subscription then an independent clarification of results wouldn't be too much to ask for.

To be be honest, I picked up a maths paper about football and became intrigued. The journey has been more interesting than the destination, i have learned a lot on the way ... what will come of it, I don't know ...

[xtrt]

Apologies, it was a quick example only, if i had traded the AUQ i would've known better.
Looking at detailed logs now - o2.5 dropped from 1.92 to 1.83 between 9:03am and 9:06am.
AUQ was available to back @8.8 until 9:04am and @8.6 until 9:07am
The expected AUQ price of 7 was hit 3 hours later with o2.5 trading @1.80~1.81.

Of course it's all market opinion, but bollocks or not liquid markets dictate prices in secondary ones.

[Thomson]

Apologies, it was a quick example only, if i had traded the AUQ i would've known better.
Looking at detailed logs now - o2.5 dropped from 1.92 to 1.83 between 9:03am and 9:06am.
AUQ was available to back @8.8 until 9:04am and @8.6 until 9:07am
The expected AUQ price of 7 was hit 3 hours later with o2.5 trading @1.80~1.81.

Of course it's all market opinion, but bollocks or not liquid markets dictate prices in secondary ones.

Thank you. Your prompt and detailed reply is much appreciated.
I have no comment as to the value of this tool, that is for those that use it to decide.
However it is my view that Betfair is a re-active market maker. To explain this, your market move timings will correlate to, and with, early adjustments made by Bet £3.65...Stan james. and others.

Although these sports books are large companies they will have a trader flagged on these markets when a liability of maybe +£50 is asked for. They adjust, usually decline the bet and Betfair layers react to their price movement. This is part of their arbitrage protection protocol they use.

To take advantage of this imbalance by monitoring Betfair markets is possible short term but not scalable IMO but good luck with your endeavours.....

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

I am using a geometric function that contain three additional parameters for 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2.
After putting down the groundwork, I am looking at cutting down the time it takes to model each game, which means improving my excel skills (as you are aware of, from another fred!). I've got the time it takes to model a game down from 30 minutes, to 10 minutes, with additional time savings in the pipeline. This will allow me to run simultaneous models with tweaks in the forthcoming Premiership season ...

I'm quite looking forward to what the new season brings and will be using my model to identify value. The concept of using a model to trade pre-match seems interesting, I noticed a similar phenomenon from the few games I modelled last season, where on some matches, the odds moved towards my model. Whether there is any long term profit in this, I don't know, It's something I will look at. I guess if it is a profitable strategy, the proof will be in the pudding and if one were to pay for a subscription then an independent clarification of results wouldn't be too much to ask for.

To be be honest, I picked up a maths paper about football and became intrigued. The journey has been more interesting than the destination, i have learned a lot on the way ... what will come of it, I don't know ...

10 Minutes a market? What on earth are you doing in all that time Doubleback

When I used to assess games I first used excels webquerys to pull down the future games and prev data and whole leagues would be assessed in seconds. Later I moved onto php, mysql and footballdata.co.uk to run everything might be worth you looking down those routes to speed things up doubleback so more time can be spent looking for angles rather than analysing.

Got to admit the football side of things intrigues me too as all markets are essentially related and they'll always be value in the lower liquidity markets for either trading or value punting. It's something I need to get back into as I knocked it on the head due to the masses of racing and having no free time.

[doubleback]

10 Minutes a market? What on earth are you doing in all that time Doubleback

Indeed ...

It's all about the covariates ... It's quite ironic really, I was studying computer aided engineering at university which included C++, but dropped out, one of the reasons being that I didn't want to sit in front of a computer screen all day!

That was a good few years ago and part of me now wishes that I stuck with it.

I'm coming along, my Excel skills are improving with SUMIFS and VLOOKUP firmly under my belt. One step at a time ... I might even be able to create a website one day!

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Thank you. Your prompt and detailed reply is much appreciated.
I have no comment as to the value of this tool, that is for those that use it to decide.
However it is my view that Betfair is a re-active market maker. To explain this, your market move timings will correlate to, and with, early adjustments made by Bet £3.65...Stan james. and others.

Although these sports books are large companies they will have a trader flagged on these markets when a liability of maybe +£50 is asked for. They adjust, usually decline the bet and Betfair layers react to their price movement. This is part of their arbitrage protection protocol they use.

To take advantage of this imbalance by monitoring Betfair markets is possible short term but not scalable IMO but good luck with your endeavours.....

I thought the pricing was all done in Asia for the Premiership and big tournamnets?

UK books manage their risk by individual accounts not by amount staked, if you are lucky enough to have an unlimited account you can get a hefty sum on for a big match.

Maybe it's best use is as a more general value betting aid rather than directly looking at every market, I find it interesting for that purpose more.

[gonxalo2000]

IT DOESN'T WORK!!!!

Notification came very very late!
If you follow the page, you can find 2 to 5 matches a day.
IF and only IF you get match then you have to get match one tick away ... you have to bet a lot, and i mean really a lot to pay subscription, and you won't get match in all the games. Cost is ridiculous!!!
It's easy to scalp with your own knowledge.

you can do what you want, but that's my real experience. not a publicity. just DON'T BUY IT!!!