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Hey guys this is one for the statisticians amongst you. Was just wondering, when calculating overs odds should we base our calculations on average goals over a certain number of games or average amount of games a team exceeded x.5 goals per game. Obviously the two methods will come out with different odds as a team who scores 3 goals in a game is less likely to score as much as a team that scores 5 but both would be weighted the same if calculating for the over 2.5 market if basing the odds calc purely on times exceeding the overs limit. Hope I'm making sense here!
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No easy answears, here , mate. Too many areas to consider, ie
ave num of shots on goal per game
if a prem game, massive difference in standard of opposition,
num of gls scored against what opposition?
what might be the 2 managers intentions, does a draw suit?
Above list is just the tip of the iceburg, who scores earl gls means
plenty, as we can trade out.
The big prob, long term is comm (5%max) this is terminal cancer.
Another to consider is, U think it's a low score game, U marginally pref
the home team, can leave out 2 of the 5 poss scores, 0-1 & 0-2,
back the other 3 correct scores instead.
Personally, pref 'Overs' if feel good chance of early goal, can green out & play again 3.5 gls, if required
Early goal means we don't need 2 more gls ......have fun
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Hi Ted, thanks for the answer. I'm not sure I agree with commission being a barrier here. If we see a value price, I believe it's only value after actual commission has been factored in so I don't see that as a major issue myself.Originally posted by Ted View PostNo easy answears, here , mate. Too many areas to consider, ie
ave num of shots on goal per game
if a prem game, massive difference in standard of opposition,
num of gls scored against what opposition?
what might be the 2 managers intentions, does a draw suit?
Above list is just the tip of the iceburg, who scores earl gls means
plenty, as we can trade out.
The big prob, long term is comm (5%max) this is terminal cancer.
Another to consider is, U think it's a low score game, U marginally pref
the home team, can leave out 2 of the 5 poss scores, 0-1 & 0-2,
back the other 3 correct scores instead.
Personally, pref 'Overs' if feel good chance of early goal, can green out & play again 3.5 gls, if required
Early goal means we don't need 2 more gls ......have fun
I would also have thought, playing styles, motivation and all those intangible factors are acounted for in the goals stats, it's more a case of knowing what variables to look at. Like I say in my original post, if one teams scores a hypothetical 7 goals per game and the other scores 3, they have both gone over 2.5 goals but the first team is more likely to go over more times in the future.Comment
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