Next goal after 1st goal. Need stats.

[Paolo]

What I mean. I mean that.
I need probability of 1-1 after 1st goal.
What we have after 1st goal.
We have:
Nobody scores and score will not change 1-0
Second goal by one team 2-0
1-1

So if to except power of teams, we will have 33% for 1-1, 33% for 1-0, 33% for 2-0. That is probability of 1-1 is 1/3.
But how is it at real stats?

I don't need full game score, I need score during a game.

[edi8]

http://www.physorg.com/news163159671.html

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/06/090602112301.htm

http://www.probabilitytheory.info/content/item/16-anatomy-of-a-soccer-football-match

http://gmatclub.com/forum/m14-29-soccer-game-probability-68335.html

http://mathematics-in-europe.eu/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=109%3Afootball-is-the-most-exciting-sport&catid=10%3Apopulararticles&lang=en

https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Papers/excitement.pdf

http://www.studysoccer.com/helpinplay.php

http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:fnLe1yG66_UJ:catsr.ite.gmu.edu/SYST490/DSTSO_IEEE_SIEDS.pdf+probability+of+win+after+score+first+goal&hl=en&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESgW7k23sGl2MA9jrMiRPK8VBzTVVSPIhtRSlog2CfBhAuMTVvSHFAa-IbSN6obZg4HzMEVR1nPfx2XFGwtkWPjmvgvoNvowN-vH55XzhIBwbhDv0p8bpHDScjkOhL2QeYu3_tbC&sig=AHIEtbRFUEoB9Eeo3OncY_yBgLdM7KtAYw

[Paolo]

Thank you mate. Good links. Do you have ome stats at least for EPL.
I try to make for CL and RPL stats.

[Paolo]

Statistic of RPL 54 games.

11 games, during games were 1-1.
20,37%


Euro 2008
During a game 1-1 = 9
Total games 31
29%

What I want. I want to bet on a draw when 1st goal is scored and after 1-1 to make all green.

[Paolo]

One mistake
Statistic of RPL 54 games.

11 games, during games were 1-1.
7 times 0-0 That is 54-7=47
23,4%

Euro 2008
During a game 1-1 = 9
Total games 31
4 times 0-0
31-4=27
33,33%

So, it is very high probability that second team to score 2nd goal.

When 1-0, coeff on a draw is 4-15.

[Paolo]

Statistic of Russian 1st Division
1-1 - 16
0-0 - 8
2-2 - 3

Total games 70
70-8=62
1-1 16 times = 25,8%
2-2 3 times = 4,84%

1-1 and 2-2 = 30,65%

WC-2010

1-1 - 16
0-0 - 7
2-2 - 1
Total games 64
64-7=57
1-1 = 28,07%
2-2 = 1,75%
1-1 and 2-2 = 29,82%

[Temujin]

Your sample is way too small. What you need to know is the odds of the teams pre game as well, plus at least 2,000 more games as references.

[Paolo]

Your sample is way too small. What you need to know is the odds of the teams pre game as well, plus at least 2,000 more games as references.

Yep, I try.
I noticed one thing that on neutral pitch % of 1-1 during a game is higher. Almost 1/3. How you know on a draw after 1st goal coeff is higher than 3.00. That means you will have a plus. But this is on paper and just for WC and Euros.
I would be happy if someone help me an to count their National leagues.

[shadowninja]

Thing is, you would do better to consider the teams that are playing, not just the fact that one goal has been scored. If the favourite scores first, the chances of the other team equalising would be far less than if the underdog scores first.

[Paolo]

Thing is, you would do better to consider the teams that are playing, not just the fact that one goal has been scored. If the favourite scores first, the chances of the other team equalising would be far less than if the underdog scores first.

Most of those stats 1st goals was scored by favourites and home teams and away team made 1-1. I many times noticed that favourites conceded second goal during a game. Of course if underdog scores then chances on a draw very high. I traded yesterday a game when fovourite made 1-1 after underdogs goal.
I even try to make stats with Chelsea, MU and Arsenal. They all are super faorites.

[Paolo]

Arsenal

Away
Arsenal scores 1st - 3
2nd - 3
Home
Arsenal scores 1st - 3
2nd - 2

Home 0-0 - 3

Total home games - 18-3(0-0)=15
Arsenal scores 1st = 15-2(0-1)=13 = 23,08%
Opponents score 1st = 15-3(1-0)=12 = 16,67%

So if Arsenal scores 1st then 1-1 will be 23%. Usually when Arsenal scores coeff 7-10.

Total away games - 17
Arsenal scores 1st = 17,65%
Opponents score 1st = 17,65%

Total home 1-1 = 5 = 33,33%
Total away games 1-1 = 6 = 35,29%

Total games 35-3(0-0)=32
1-1 = 11 times = 34,38%

How you see probability of 1-1 when Arsenal play is very high, even higher than in Russian leagues and WC with Euro.

[Paolo]

Chelsea

Home
Chelsea scores 1st - 2
2nd - 2
Away
Chelsea scores 1st -
2nd - 6

Home 0-0 -
Away 0-0 - 2

Total home games - 18
Chelsea scores 1st = 18-2(0-1)=16 = 12,5%
Opponents score 1st = 18-2(1-0)=16 = 12,5%


Total away games - 17-2(0-0)=15
Chelsea scores 1st = 0%
Opponents score 1st = 40%

Total home 1-1 = 4 = 22,22%
Total away games 1-1 = 6 = 40%

Total games 35-2(0-0)=33
1-1 = 10 times = 30,30%

How you see Chelsea also has not less 30%. Almost 1/3, but Chelsea has very high coeffs on a draw.

I'm sure even that it will be the same with MU, MC and Liverpool. I think they also will have about 30%.

Now I try another super favs, Real and Barca.

[Paolo]

Barcelona

Home
Barca scores 1st - 3
2nd - 2
Away
Barca scores 1st - 4
2nd - 1

Home 0-0 -
Away 0-0 -

Total home games - 17
Barca scores 1st = 17-2(0-1)=15 = 20%
Opponents score 1st = 17-3(1-0)=14 = 14,27%


Total away games - 17
Barca scores 1st = 17-1(0-1)=16=4*100/16= 25%
Opponents score 1st = 17-4(1-0)=13=1*100/13=7,69%

Total home 1-1 = 5 = 29,4%
Total away games 1-1 = 5 = 29,4%

Total games 34
1-1 = 10 times = 29,4%

So, agian the same result. Almost 30%. And even when Barca score 1st goal at home to have 20%. When Barca scores at home a draw will be very high.

[Paolo]

Test in-play Real(y)-Santander(y)
goal 1-0 59min coeffs 7,4-7,6

[Paolo]

Tampins-Gombak
back a draw 7,8
lay a draw 1,15