Trading hours before kick off

[trinityman]

I think, like most of my bets, the irony was lost.

[Pringle]

I do trade the correct score market hours before the game starts (premier league games mainly because of the liquidity). Quite successfully if I may say so.

I usually put up my bets in the morning and activate the tick offset at 1 or 2 ticks (partial). Then I leave to the university and see how it went when I return home (I may have a peak during the day though). Sometimes some trading has been going on, sometimes barely anything has happened. That way I am ahead of the big boys, although this doesn´t usually hold true for the 0-0 where quite early thousands of pounds/euro´s are up waiting.

However, big green- or red-ups I have yet to encounter. Upon coming home. I am seldom worried about bad positions as there is still enough time left to try to do something about them. But still, every once in a while I have to spend the rest of the evening doing "damage control".

The way I set up my bets must have anything to do with it, no doubt. For example, I will not be laying in the morning 0-1, 0-2 and 0-3 because if the away team goes against me (steaming or drifting, depending on my backs or lays), I will be screwed on all three of these scores. It is therefore safer to spread, let´s say laying 3-1 and 1-3. Or it´s bad to have red on 2-3, 3-2 and 3-3 because you can´t do anything about these IN PLAY, you are left at the mercy of an early goal.

[xtrt]

Hi,
I've started to look into trading hours before kick off in certain games and wonder if anyone out there does the same and how successful can be?

I trade most high liquidity games during the last 2-3 hours before KO, and then again during the HT break.
How successful?
The red-up rate is very low - less than 5% of total trades I believe, can't be arsed to keep stats which I'll never check again.
Profits are not huge however, usually 5-7% of the 2-3k trading bank.

I look for a game where the home side is under 1.5 on match odds and then i take a look at the 2-0 and 3-0 score lines. I've noticed that these 2 score lines in particular seem to come in a few ticks in the build up to a game. The idea is to back lets say 2-0 for 7.2 (like I have done today in the Celtic vs Hearts game) and then lay off for 1 or maybe 2 ticks if the price comes in..

This is as far as my knowledge goes for this type of trade and ideally would like some more ideas, pointers, things to look out for

The Correct Score market is not a dominant one and the prices there are adjusted to the high liquidity Match Odds and O/U2.5 markets.
A couple of pointers:
If favs drift out and U2.5 steams in or stays the same - both 2:0 and 3:0 prices will drift.
If favs steam in and U2.5 drifts out - 2:0 will drift and 3:0 will steam.
Things to look out for:
The high liquidity markets/prices as they define all others + ways to accurately predict prices in linked markets.
Having a historical price database at your disposal could be useful too.

English is apparently not my native language so please excuse any mistakes

Cheers

Why 1966 Nigel ? did something happen to English soccer in 1966 ? as I'm Irish and watch English TV the whole time how come I never heard of this 1966 English soccer thing before now ?

We, on the mainland have heard of nothing else since 1966. Thank God they were hopeless and crashed out of the last World Cup. Chances are that they will not win it in my lifetime. Reality is that I would rather be dead than see another World Cup trophy go to England. Nothing racist in my comment, I'm very fond of English people, just sick of hearing about 1966 ad nauseam. Football's coming home. What a joke !

[PC0845]

If you had backed against the English national team consistently since 1966, you'd be a multi-millionaire by now

Why 1966 Nigel ? did something happen to English soccer in 1966 ? as I'm Irish and watch English TV the whole time how come I never heard of this 1966 English soccer thing before now ?

[Scotty_73]

I do this quite regularly Liverpool game today was an example 2-0 I got on at 7.6 and traded out at 7 pre kickoff could have got 6.8 if i had waited a little longer. left some green but took it before the goal unfortunately as Liverpool were terrible

[TRADER68]

I last night placed a £40 trade on the 2-1 Germany score at 13.5 then left my lay bet at 13.This score was 8th on the list of volume.It was finally matched at 6.15 today.£1.54 green for an 18 hour trade(8p an hour).This is from a market with reasonable liquidity for the time frame in comparison to normal midweek games.Keeping an eye on this market nothing moved that much but unless you were a good judge of movement and covered lots of scores it hardly seems worthwhile.That said i did the same on the sunday night for the Holland game tonight and it was green by monday morning.At least it gives you a free intrest in the game even if it wont make you rich.Best of luck folks.

[TRADER68]

I have been following these markets for a while now.When it comes to games that look fairly one sided i think most people have the same idea of what the likely scores will be.At first you have to find high profile games that generate interest(money).The people setting the market are not going to be giving much away so you have to find a score that will attract money.In this type of game usually 2-0 3-0 3-1,auq and 0-0(0-0 always attracts the people who back then trade out inplay as soon as possible).Then you have to decide if the price is right.Early on the overround on the back side is high suggesting prices have to go out while on the lay side its low suggesting it has to come in.If the price is above the other exchanges its worth looking at although i would not take the price on offer i would wait in the queue.I would set the tick offset to 1 and hope as i got matched other people were joining my position to give me the chance to scratch.These markets are very slow moving and tie up your money as has been already said.I would have thought lots of traders would be using bots in these markets.I have noticed that scores not attracting money can drift rapidly near the off as the market gets more efficient.Personaly i prefer scores that include both teams scoring.That way you can wait untill last minutes to close your position and although you should never go in play as long as you dont hang about you can usually scratch a trade at worst(i am not recomending doing this).A quick goal should not hurt you and can even be a bonus.With a 2-0 or 3-0 you cant take the risk.Avoid markets with no money in them as you need to use decent amounts to justify the time these trades take up and you might have difficulty trading out.Good luck all
p.s. The one exception to trading out of 0-0 as soon as pos is if your doing a man.u - liverpool game, your black and white and have a crystal ball.

I was wondering about a variation of that this afternoon.

In general a lot of the straight punters on Betfair are English. I was wondering if you could profit from that by backing an English team early and laying it once it gets closer to starting time and all the English punters want to get their back bet in on their team.

I have a feeling though that this works better for the national team then clubteams as there are plenty of English that love to see Man U lose

I think you'll find that English fans tend to support their teams too much and the price for the opposition is always better value. If you had backed against the English national team consistently since 1966, you'd be a multi-millionaire by now

[Ted]

A few seasons ago, there was a slight edge with backing big name teams from big population town's in

lower leagues, against comparitively smaller towns, ie Leeds, N.Forrest

Don't know if this still holds water, or not, but a present day situation would be Championship

Newcastle v Plymouth, blackpool, Scunthorpe etc.

Was worth a few ticks, far more often than not. (get in early)

In recent years people have been identifying odds & sods small fry areas of profit &

hoovering it up, they wouldn't have bothered with it, first few years BF was open.

[Timstertoo]

I was wondering about a variation of that this afternoon.

In general a lot of the straight punters on Betfair are English. I was wondering if you could profit from that by backing an English team early and laying it once it gets closer to starting time and all the English punters want to get their back bet in on their team.

I have a feeling though that this works better for the national team then clubteams as there are plenty of English that love to see Man U lose

[jampers]

Your knowledge of this type of trade goes alot further than mine

How did you stumble across this, you must have studied things a while?

Hi Firkinelle,
I have been trading a few years now, but only recently have I tried this type of trade, mainly because I don't like my money tied up for that long. I first came across this trade in a different forum a while back and recently came across it again so thought I'd give it a go. I only go for 1 tick and leave it as a free bet on 2-0 and once the 1st goal goes in, green up.

There's not really much too it and it can be boring waiting all day to see if the price is actually coming down.

[Firkinelle]

Your knowledge of this type of trade goes alot further than mine

How did you stumble across this, you must have studied things a while?

[jampers]

Hi,
I've started to look into trading hours before kick off in certain games and wonder if anyone out there does the same and how successful can be?

I look for a game where the home side is under 1.5 on match odds and then i take a look at the 2-0 and 3-0 score lines. I've noticed that these 2 score lines in particular seem to come in a few ticks in the build up to a game. The idea is to back lets say 2-0 for 7.2 (like I have done today in the Celtic vs Hearts game) and then lay off for 1 or maybe 2 ticks if the price comes in..

This is as far as my knowledge goes for this type of trade and ideally would like some more ideas, pointers, things to look out for, from the more experience traders out there.

Thanks in advance

Jampers