King George, Boxing Day. Ante Post view

[Emkayracing]

It's 4/5 Kauto Star and 13/2 Bar at this stage so the point of this thread is to look at the Each Way (Or Win) options because there are plenty of big prices around.

The second best in the market is the horse that shook-up Kauto at Haydock, Imperial Commander. A repeat of that run would appear to be unlikely on the faster, right handed Kempton course. At a current 13/2 I am not in the slightest bit interested.

Cooldine, third in the market at a current 15, is definitely one to consider. He was the top novice chaser over 3m+ last season and he is due to run at Punchestown next weekend. A win or decent effort there will see his odds tumble for the King George so he offers a quick back / lay option to anyone who wants to join in. 15 could become 6 or 7 so I have snapped up the larger price this weekend.

Madison Du Berlais will struggle after graduating from Handicap company. He clearly liked Kempton when beating a below-par Denman there last season but he would appear to lack the class needed to enter calculations for this one.

Albertas Run ran well at a big price in this last year and was an impressive Ascot winner recently, however the conditions of that race favoured him and off levels back up in grade he will have it all to do. The current 18 is laughable.

Barbers Shop is the sort to enter the mix as this is an easy 3m and he clearly struggles to see the trip out throroughly. He ran well enough yesterday in Denman's Hennessy but the stamina just wasn't there for the finish. He is bound to come on a bit for that run and would be of serious interest if he turns up on Boxing Day.

Nacarat is next in the betting but again I think connections are limited with their running options since his handicap rating went through the roof. This has always been the plan though and he could be place material.

Summary Two Ante-Post interests for me. Back to Lay Cooldine before and after his run next weekend. Back Barbers Shop each way at current odds of 22.

[Rod Flanders]

1st of all ill say that i think Kauto star is a cert in this race but shocking price, i wont play at 4/5

just had a look m8 and I have a few I like the look of

Albertas run, only if the champ is in the saddle 14/1 e/w

Kalahari King 20/1 e/w

voy por ustedes 33/1 e/w

All these horses on there day have a chance of a place but this is a race that is so difficult as about 10 horses will be good enough to be placed.

cant comment too much as dunno wat the ground will be like, but these are my early choices if they even run.

[Emkayracing]

1st of all ill say that i think Kauto star is a cert in this race but shocking price, i wont play at 4/5

just had a look m8 and I have a few I like the look of

Albertas run, only if the champ is in the saddle 14/1 e/w

Kalahari King 20/1 e/w

voy por ustedes 33/1 e/w

All these horses on there day have a chance of a place but this is a race that is so difficult as about 10 horses will be good enough to be placed.

cant comment too much as dunno wat the ground will be like, but these are my early choices if they even run.

Rather than throw names onto this thread, perhaps you could back up each selection?

For example

Albertas Run 'Only if the champ is in the saddle' - Why? Does the horse have a better record with A P?

Kalahari King 20/1 e/w - For what reason? The horse has one win over 2m4f but has never been tried over further, what make you think he will stay?

Voy Por Ustedes 33/1 e/w - Again, this former 2m Champion Chaser has already been found out over further, why should he be given another chance?

Posting every other minute on different threads may be for some people, however the point of this particular thread was to highlight the potential value in the Ante Post market of the King George. There is plenty of time before the race so you have enough time to consider your selections before posting, agreed?

[Rod Flanders]

fair enough but putting this race in a thread so early is pretty silly considering we dont know the proper line up for the race. we also have not got a clue what the ground is like, are people to waste time going through the form only to find out the horse has been pulled out the race? why not wait untill the final declaration? the prices might be good at the moment but who in there right mind would get on now when they will lose there money if the horse is withdrawn?

imagine kauto star was pulled out

i picked out horses that i like, but i couldnt possibly tip winners of this race untill the ground is known, neither could anyone else unless u can see into the future.

[Emkayracing]

You are just proving my point 'Rod'....

So now it is 'Pretty silly' to start a post at this stage, yet you are happy to offer three horses with no apparent explanation?!

Let's be honest, you would submit a post on table tennis if someone started a thread.

And editing posts (i.e. After the Hennessy), WTF is that all about?

Every forum has got one I suppose.....

[Rod Flanders]

i tipped the winner of the hennessy on saturday morning,

werent u the one that said ud take on denman?

did u? because that was a great idea.

oh and ur right. ive traded table tennis before too

[Emkayracing]

i tipped the winner of the hennessy on saturday morning,

werent u the one that said ud take on denman?

did u? because that was a great idea.

oh and ur right. ive traded table tennis before too

As it goes, I said that I was happy to take Denman on at the weights but that if the Denman of old turned up he could, quoting myself, "Blow this lot away".

The approach that I took with the race was to back 5 horses and when you check the result you will note that they finished 2nd, 4th, 5th, 7th and 8th.

Not only did What A Friend get matched at long odds-on but Barbers Shop was also favourite in running for a period of time. It was pretty easy fishing but if you would rather back favs, that's up to you

[Temujin]

1st of all ill say that i think Kauto star is a cert in this race but shocking price, i wont play at 4/5

You think it is guaranteed to win, yet won't back it at those odds? 4/5 represents a 55.55% chance of winning, and payout. You think it is 100% to win?
Surely you don't get much more value than that?

Personally, if I rated something as 100%, and could get 1.20 for it I would be over the moon. 1.8?

[Emkayracing]

It now looks as though Cooldine will stay over in Ireland for the Lexus chase instead of tackling Kauto Star in the King George. Denman was down to go over for the Lexus but those plans have been scrapped and he will go straight to the AON next year.

For me this now leaves a huge hole in the market. Kauto is still around 4/5 and it's now 8 bar one. I cannot have Imperial Commander at Kempton and Madison Du Berlais is also one who I would put a line through. Albertas Run and Nacarat are ordinary top-end handicappers and a quick scroll down takes you through most of the beaten Hennessy runners.

What A Friend is 44 from 60 but he heads up the Welsh National market two days later. Deep Purple is 75 and that may be worth a small each way play on the back of his Charlie Hall run.

At 21 Cooldine is still worth a go because the Lexus looks the more competitive race of the two (v King George) so Mr Mullins might want to see where he stands in the Gold Cup picture and try his luck against Kauto.

Be lucky

[Rod Flanders]

You think it is guaranteed to win, yet won't back it at those odds? 4/5 represents a 55.55% chance of winning, and payout. You think it is 100% to win?
Surely you don't get much more value than that?

Personally, if I rated something as 100%, and could get 1.20 for it I would be over the moon. 1.8?

i think its a cert yes if it gets round, the horse has fallen before, 100%- no as nothing is 100%, I dont back horses at that price, never have never will. if the horse touched 2/1 then yes I would be on but not 4/5,

[Emkayracing]

Deep Purple is 75 and that may be worth a small each way play on the back of his Charlie Hall run.

Not looking too bad now at 16-17. This is still a very confusing book - Cooldine has drifted back out in this but is solid in the Lexus, Nicky Henderson has gone public with his doubts about Barber Shop, What A Friend is now 60/40 to go to Chepstow and a few more have drifted into three figures since the original write up (See Voy Por Ustedes, Kalahari King )

[Emkayracing]

Scratch Cooldine, the bookies have and he is now as big as 65 on the magic machine

Sat on some 70-75 Deep Purple and will be keeping an eye on the weather before laying it off, on good ground he should trade shorter (In-running) than the 17 currently on offer. Soft ground would scupper his chance.

Barbers Shop is now confirmed, as I had had hoped he would be. He can still be backed at around the 20 mark and that is bigger than it will be on Boxing Day morning. I think he's a 9 or 10/1 shot myself.

Game on

[Emkayracing]

Is defeat out of the question for four-timer seeking Kauto Star ?

He is 1.63 on the magic machine now but the opposition does not look up to much.

Next up in the betting is Imperial Commander but interestingly his six wins have come on left handed tracks (5 @ Chelters, 1 @ Newcastle) so will he be any better in this than he was last year (Btn. 72l) ?

Madison Du Berlais beat Denman (Not right) 23l getting 4lb back in February at this track, getting his own way in front and turning the screw from some way out. He then got stuffed in the Gold Cup before conquering Denman again (Fell, when beaten) on a much faster surface at Aintree in April.

Deep Purple was put up on this thread @ 75 a few weeks back, he may take MDB on for the lead here though and it will take something special to remain in front after 3 miles in this field. He is one of those that fits the 'Almost top class' bracket for me and although he will be popular in the betting he has it all to do in the form book.

Barbers Shop is 25 now and I think that is huge. Whether you want to take his run in last year's Paddy Power (Btn. 2 3/4l by Imperial Commander, who received 3lb), his Gold Cup effort (Beat MDB by 9l off levels) or indeed his Hennessy run (Close up behind Denman & What A Friend) I think he has a massive shout. Stamina is his main concern but 3m round Kempton takes as much out of a horse as 2m4f at other tracks and as Azertyuiop got the trip here, Barbers Shop can.

Have a great Christmas all

[Emkayracing]

Another result.

Barbers Shop was put up in late November at 22, he was 25 three days ago and that was massive. Backed at a low of 7 in running, there were any number of opportunites to green up at odds in the early teens.

Deep Purple did me a huge favour by winning the Peterborough when his odds plummeted from 75 > 17. He was never going to be up to the required standard here.

When Cooldine did not get his prep race (Called off) it complicated matters but it was quite clear that he was not being aimed at Kempton. A loss as a singular trade, these things happen though.

Summary Kauto Star is a wonder horse and it was great to see him complete his four-timer. Imperial Commander does not go right-handed as I had thought. Madison Du Berlais came from nowhere to stay on for second when Barbers Shop's gauge hit empty, the latter may be Ryanair material because he quite clearly does not stay.

[Boo]

Well done Emkay.

Sheer class from Kauto today and sets up a cracking Gold cup against stablemate Denman.