Horse Racing in OZ

[Charles49]

Very, very, ordinary results still impacting so keep your powder dry as the good times must return and lets hope that's pretty soon.
Major story out there is of course the dreaded virus and the impact it is having on our community's both in terms of local and nationally. In Australia the corona death toll has crept up to 104 with the death of an 85 year old male and an adjustment for a prior death that has now been reassessed. Still very good figures in comparision but the reality is that life here has changed drastically. Today Qantas announced it will cut 6,100 jobs because it simply cant fly internationally and it has placed its fleet of 380's in the desert in the United States because they dont think they will be back in use until 2023 and the desert is the best place to go in order to avoid major deterioration of their stock. We do have crazy rules around. In some States you cant have anyone at a footy match but in others you can now have as many as 20,000,and others will permit 10,000 from July 1st. Some States have their borders closed and some dont,so the rules are all over the place and confusing for simple folk like me.! Anyone who has booked international travel prior to the Covid-19 virus will find that their deposit, and in many cases their full payments have been frozen and companies like Flight Centre, and others like Rocky Mountaineer railway are really playing hard ball. Not a smart play imho if you want your business to be seen in a good light longterm.
Enough of the rant.
Personal bets this week totalled just 20 bets of which 6 saluted, two ran second, three ran third and nine failed to run a drum.
Racing this week is at Caulfield, Rosehill and Doomben and hopefully we can find you a better number of winners then what occurred last week.
As usual the "still working" notice will go up shortly and wont be removed until the final selections are completed.
Hope your day is a good one and please stay safe and well.

CAULFIELD:
R1 no 2 Tolkowsky...obvious danger is no 1 Euphoric Summer 4th
R2 no 2 Kaplumpich 3rd
R3 no 7 Mystery Shot Won $3.60
R4 no 7 River Jewel 2nd
R6 no 1 Ms Catherine
R8 no 4 Harbour Views 4th
R9 no 13 Victoria Star

ROSEHILL:
R1 no 7 Fashichanel......No 1 Frosty Rocks is the late mail 4th
R3 no 2 Ablaze
R5 no 4 Rothern Won $3.60
R9 no 5 Kordia Won $4

DOOMBEN:
R1 no 5 One Shy Ruby 3rd
R4 no 3 Scathing
R6 no 6 Soxagon Won $3
R7 no 1 Scallopini 2nd
R8 no 2 Baccarat Baby 3rd
R9 no 2 Pinnacle Star 2nd

BELMONT:
R2 no 8 Windstorm Won
R4 no 5 Bright Diamond Won $2.50
R5 no 8 Mississippi Delta 4th


LAY BETS:
MR9 no 2 Innkeeper Ran unplaced. Lay Bet Won
SR2 no 18 Dream Runner Ran unplaced. Lay Bet Won


Cheers 'n' Beers

[PDC]

Hope the betting improves for you soon Charles. I really enjoy your weekly update on all things Australian. Do you have any information about the chances of crowds returning to racecourses? I would think it isn't too far off if they are allowing people in large numbers in stadiums in some states.

Stay healthy!

[Charles49]

Thanks PDC. Your comments are very much appreciated and I'm delighted that you find my weekly reports enjoyable. In respect of crowds returning to racecourses the process has already begun here with the local Brisbane Clubs currently allowing up to 1000 to attend meetings. Its mainly members only and owners at this stage so the general public are excluded. I understand similar plans have been submitted to respective bodies in other States based on social distancing rules and these plans are all likely to be approved by the respective States. The major issue of course with racecourses is that many of the patrons that go there do so to socialise and to get Brahms and List. Intoxicated patrons are not what racecourses need so their Covid-19 plans that they submit need to show evidence that social distancing will be policed.
Having said that its generally expected that a relaxation of current rules will be permitted by the end of July, however the caveat here is that the virus has to have been contained by then and there is no or little likelihood of a major outbreak emerging from having crowds returning. Of course our local courses here in Doomben and Eagle Farm were built with the ability to cater for 50,000 patrons plus, and before the outbreak regular crowds were south of 10,000 for most meetings, so there is plenty of room for patrons to spread out and avoid contact. Hope life is treating you well and you are staying safe. Kind regards, Charles.

[Temujin]

The whole covid rubbish is a joke. Massive power grab.

It has helped shed light on something though.

Without fail, a favoured horse that misses the kick gets laid hard in the SP market. A market supposedly suspended by BF who has somebody on course to do so, after the race starts gets laid in the pre race market, often and hard.
If there is nobody on course, who exactly is doing this? How exactly does something that happens during a race affect the SP price if it ends at jump?
Either BF employees are, are they, as I suspect, are suspending markets sitting in an office watching the television and owners/trainers/staff are rorting the BF SP markets.

Anyway, good to see you still going strong.

[Charles49]

Thanks Temujin for your observations. Yes have to agree that Covid-19 lockdowns, shutdowns etc etc have in hindsight been a massive over reaction. The lockdown of external borders would have been sufficient as we don't have border issues like European countries do. Plus we dont have people living in very high density situations and we only have less than 26 million here on the entire continent. The cost to this country will be felt for years ahead and it may be the next generation that is left with the burden of debt that this virus has sucked up.
Very intrigued with your BF comments. Looks like someone has found a way through the BF system and for this to happen then the first port of call would be to investigate BF personnel as that would seem an obvious starting point. There have been some very suspect long shot winners during the Covid period here and that would seem to indicate that the stewards are hamstrung by covid restrictions and are unable to fulfill their duties in a manner consistent with pre covid times. I hope that's not the case but I will have a very close watch on todays starts. I assume you are referring to Melb and Sydney racing or is more widespread than that? Thanks also for you kind remarks and Yes I still enjoy posting on Geeks Toy even if the winners these days seem to be more elusive!! Cheers

[Temujin]

It effects one of my strategies so I now just factor it into the costs of doing business. Sometimes I look at it as a positive that because I lost big on a market, it will mean BF will take less than 35% of everything I make at the end of the week because it generated a bit of commission getting screwed over lol.

Not sure there is a limit to where it happens. Gold Coast was pretty consistent. I almost thought maybe it was a pull up job for people to profit off, but then it was happening in too many places.
BF seem to suspend the market based on Foxtel, which must be at least somewhat delayed.

Will give you 2 examples.
Firstly, it should be noted that I have detailed SP data flowing live, so my statements aren't based on simple observations, but absolute exceptions to expected SP based on all available data.
1.

https://www.racingqueensland.com.au/racing-and-results/video-replays/player/thoroughbred/gcst/20200129/race/5

Deep Sorrow. Gold Coast, magic millions meeting I believe. Also, same race,
Better Than Groovy.
DS trading consistently at 1.90, SP expected to be around the same.
BTG trading at 5.8, same goes.

DS sp 2.19
BTG sp 5.18

No need to really point out that DS missed the kick out of the barrier, and BTG flew the stalls to go to the front.

2.
The Pines, I believe a week later. Same deal, missed the kick. SP went from 2.36 to 2.65.

Both markets were quite considerable given these were the main meetings for the day where all the action was and both moves were on market suspend, and were definitely not dictated by liability in the SP market.

You see it daily though not limited by where. See it in England, France, South Africa.
It is like BF are suspending the markets based on Foxtel (I can see the race start on Foxtel sometimes it is still 1-2 seconds before the market suspends) and somebody has a live feed with an extra 3 or 4 seconds of the race to place their bets before the market suspends. Or it is common all over the world to pull the start knowing somebody is going to destroy the market at jump.

Either way, I wanted to welcome myself back to the forum by posting something controversial

Seems a bit dead here. Might start up a greyhound thread and post some ratings up just to document it. Maybe there are some dogs punters that might spark up a bit of conversation. Don't really do form any more for horses, dogs are so easy.

GL today.

[PDC]

Good example just now in R6 at Doomben. Thy Kingdom Come was trading at 3.85 pre-race. It then shot out just before Betfair went inplay, about 3 seconds before they turned it inplay. It returned an SP of 4.52 but hit much higher in those few seconds. The horse broke badly and was out the back.

[Bog]

Might start up a greyhound thread and post some ratings up just to document it. Maybe there are some dogs punters that might spark up a bit of conversation. Don't really do form any more for horses, dogs are so easy.

GL today.

Sounds intersting . I don't study form, too much date maybe (?), I started to trade Aussie greyhounds when activity was better because UK greyhounds racing being stopped in March.

I also noticed many times the issue with SP on horses, probably it's very profitable and they don't want to be fix it...

[Temujin]

Studying form has 2 main issues for mine.
Firstly, it takes so much time. And secondly, it is dependent on state of mind/brain function. Study the same race 10 times, very unlikely you come up with the same result every time, maybe not even twice, which means there is even less ability to predict the future.

I had some pretty good horse ratings going but my database stopped importing data and I have no idea how to fix it. Greyhounds I am looking on at Victoria as they have downloadable csv form for every meeting and it is a simply copy paste job and every race is rated.

If I knew how to program it would all be sorted, but still all good fun.
Will start up another thread and stop hijacking this one. It will of course have a disclaimer that it is for discussion purposes and not for betting, as I really don't have enough data to make any statement about the results. Plus, because it is limited to Vic form, lesser exposed dogs (racing interstate or limited starts) are a little more variable.

All good fun..

[Charles49]

Thanks PDC. Interestingly I noted the same race and sent a PM to Temujin with my thoughts and suggestions about what happened. In my notes I said the price was hovering around/near the $4 mark but your observations are more accurate and more detailed than mine. The crucial segment here is the injection of monies inplay into the SP pool, and these occur because the SP price will always be a lower figure than the inplay figure because the market has reacted to the horse's incapacity to jump with the field.
Think its time to have a quiet chat to the boys at the Fair.
Happy to do this if you and Temujin are in agreement.

[Charles49]

You can hijack this thread anytime you like......it gets a bit lonely in here at times so I do enjoy a chat with anyone but myself !!!

[Temujin]

Thanks, got your pm.

Without seeing that particular example, there are a few scenarios that could be occurring, not limited to.

1. (These ones I don't comment on as they are easily explained through the liability/stake formula).
The liability far outweighs the stake, easily seen in the SP market. Market is simply soaking up the exchange to get the SP bets matched. Horse just happened to miss the kick.

2.
Horse was pulled up and there was money on the exchange laying it hard with a take SP option. This money would not be known for SP purposes until the actual price was calculated.

3.
BF are using delayed vision to suspend markets and some punters are taking massive advantage of it.
They aren't in the SP market, they are simply soaking up the money available on the exchange.

You mentioned to me they are able to get in the SP queue. I don't believe this to be accurate.

The way the SP works is like this.
The base SP price is the average of the best available lay and back price on the exchange.
From there, all the money in the SP market is combined into a lay and back bet and the difference is worked out.

Say for example there is 1,000 stake on a horse and 0 liability. That is a 1,000 stake. That, at market suspend is effectively a 1,000 bet at 1.01, and will take whatever on the exchange down til it is matched.

eg 1.
Prices on BF.
To back.
1.99 1,000
1.98 5
1.97 5
1.96 5
1.95 5
To lay,
2.00 1,000
2.02 5
etc etc
Because the stake is greater than the liability (converted into stake), the bet is 1,000.
In this example, it is all matched at 1.99.
Base SP is 1.995, then it has to go down til it is matched, SP becomes 1.99.

ex 2 (same stakes, different exchange values)
To back
1.99 5
1.98 5
1.97 5
1.96 5
1.95 1,000

In this example, the 1,000 extra won't get matched until 1.95. Matches 20 on the way but bulk at 1.95.
Base SP is still 1.995, however the SP now becomes ~1.95

As you can see, the exact same bets in the SP market, however different SP price. Because the SP price is determined mainly by the exchange.


For ease of purpose, consider a harness race. These don't turn in play until the green light.

This same market is in action, but the 2.00 favourite breaks into a gallop behind the mobile. It loses 20 lengths. The exchange is in freefall, people lay it, the market pushes out to 20.00 and there is nothing available to lay under 100.00

At this point, the base SP is now 60.00, however the same 1,000 needs to be entered into the market on suspend. Perhaps it matches down to 15.00.
You end up with an SP of around 16.00 or so.


For the purposes of what we are talking about here, I do not believe that anybody is doing anything in the SP market. They are simply laying on the exchange.
Somebody pulls a bet on the exchange, SP is different. Somebody pushes the price one way or another, SP is different.

What I see, is the equivalent of a horse galloping in the score up in a harness race, but only a select few people have the chance to bet on it.
The SP price is going through the roof because anything that happens in the SP pool. It is specifically because people are soaking up the exchange because they have a team watching different horses ready to lay anything that misses the kick.
They have 3 or 4 seconds, bets go in without delay since it is not yet in play, lay a 4.00 horse up to 4.50 before the SP calculation even comes into effect. Market suspends, BF works out the SP price based on the current exchange market conditions, and you have your result.

If you catch it in action, you can pretty much see the market going into chaos just before suspend, so I don't think it is anything else.


There are other things possible however and some could be explained. I do not have first hand knowledge of the market conditions of this specific example, however Deprived, race 6 Royal Randwick, March 7, G2 race. 3.70 fixed odds, 3.50 tote, was trading at 4.00 BF when race started, SP price 6.35. Didn't appear to miss the kick, and generally races at the back anyway. Perhaps there was bulk money that was set to take SP to guarantee getting set.

Point being, even though the SP appears as its own market, the SP is overwhelmingly determined by the exchange.

Apologies if that appears insulting or patronising. Explaining it this way for my own benefit so I know we are all talking about the same thing, not because I am suggesting you didn't already know any of that.


Either way, the SP is irrelevant to anything. It is just an easy figure for reference to show a final end point of where the price ended up.
The sole issue is that either of 2 things are happening.
1. People are using BF to fix horse races, or "spot fixing" so to speak;
OR
2. Betfair are allowing a select few punters to take advantage of market conditions available to a select few whilst telling their customers that they are at the course and suspending the market LIVE.

When I can sit at home, watching SKY racing, see them jump, and BF STILL haven't suspended the market, I know for a fact they aren't at the track doing it live. If they are at the track, then that is even worse still, because it starts creating a picture of exactly who is taking advantage.

[PDC]

Temujin - that was a brilliant explanation, very detailed and exactly what is happening. As you say the SP is just a convienient reference point to highlight what happened but is largely irrelevant, the action is all in the very late pre-off market which is actually happening during the start of the race.

There was just a fantastic example in France at Saint-Cloud in a Group 3 race just now.

The third favourite was trading at about 16.0 in the build up to the start (I forget the exact price but it doesn't matter).

I am watching on Sky Sports Racing which is a delayed feed via satellite, Betfair should have at least that feed as it is one of the 2 main SKy racing channels in the UK for at home customers. They should really have access to much faster commercial pictures and really people on course. But that may not be possible due to Covid-19 restrictions.

I should just add that this issue long pre-dates Covid-19 so it can't just be that Betfair can't have representatives on course due to Covid-19.

Anyway, back to the race, the horse has been trading steady around 16.0 for some time. All of a sudden the price shots out to 1000.0 in the pre-race market. It spikes back in to around 16.0 before going back to 1000, all of this happens in about 3 seconds.

The race starts on my TV (delayed feed), the Betfair market is still pre-race. The pictures show the gates open and the horse stumbles, going down on to its knees coming out the gate and deposits the jockey on the floor, the jockey had no chance, no fix.

Betfair is still in a pre-race state, the horse is 1000.0 and a few hundred has now been matched at 1000.0 and a small amount remains available to back at 1000, less than 100 stake, I don't note it down exactly.

A couple of seconds or so into the race on my delayed TV feed, Betfair turns the market inplay. The horse returns an SP of about 680.0. I check the amounts matched at SP and it is just a couple of hundred or so, nothing more or less than you would expect for such a market normally.

The horse is instantly available to back at 1000 in the now in-play market and remains so throughout the race.

This is a perfect and extreme example of what is happening in the Oz markets, it happens all over the exchange, the place it seems best is on UK and Irish markets, you may get a small movement in these circumstances but often little if any, Betfair obviously have good measures in place for turning the UK and Irish courses inplay as it actually happens or very soon after. They just wouldn't get away with this carry on on these markets as there would be uproar as they are so well populated by users. Though it still isn't a perfect process on the UK and Irish racing markets.

A few select people must be making fortunes each year from this issue.

Betfair should rename it the "just after the off price" as it certainly isn't a starting price.

[Charles49]

A friend of mine contacted the Fair Customer Service and asked what was the response time between when a race actually starts and the SP was finalised.
He received the following one sentence only written response.
"I have received word from relevant departments and have received knowledge that it's a fairly instantaneous process and would certainly be less than a second."
Found that interesting in light of our own observations.
If anything it makes for an interesting and somewhat puzzling response and is in stark contrast to our own observations.
Temujin suggested that there are two possibilities of what is happening.
That is one, there are a select few who are being permitted (or have found a flaw in the system?) to enter a lay bet after the start and are able to have sufficient time to take advantage of any favoured runner that has accidentally(or deliberately?) missed the kick.
The second conclusion is that BF has either deliberately,or accidentally, provided some account holders with an opportunity to allow a select group of punters (who are either at the track or positioned elsewhere) sufficient time to initiate a lay bet, after the start, and again as a result of a misfortune to a favoured runner.
This raises the question of integrity.
There is a (remote?) possibility here that race fixing may be in play here.
Yes I know its a big stretch but it seems incredulous to me that BF don't know or are not aware of whats happening here, and haven't taken remedial action. The fact that SP is being used may be for the reason that it essentially hides the bet and isn't seen by racing authorities who may have a tip off that something is going down. It also allows the bet to be withheld in the event that that the targeted jockey, or driver, suddenly got cold feet and the intended incident failed to take place, thereby insuring that the bettor didn't incur a loss. If either was the intent here then the best methodology would be to utilise the SP option as the preferred weapon of choice.
Integrity and client confidence in the product is an essential element for BF so I would be surprised and frankly very disappointed if BF have elements in their workforce that are complicit with any wrongdoing. Rather I would side with the school of thought that there are some very smart techs out there that have simply got under the hood and worked out where the SP can be temporary manipulated when a jockey (or driver) on a market favoured conveyance has an slip up as the race commences.
The downside to my last sentence is that one would require a significant amount of patience to wait around for such an incident as the occurrence rate is probably about 1 in 40 races, and your window of opportunity is very slim, and the available time to action the lay bet needs to be akin to the speed of light.
These are all speculative matters but I cant get my head around the fact that BF integrity folk haven't pounced on this instantly, and that is of real concern to a business that survives on public perception.

[Temujin]

Hey Charles.

Just to reiterate my post, they are not betting in the SP market or on the SP price. They are specifically betting on the exchange. To get the moves required to move a price would stand out like dogs balls in the SP market.
This is not happening.

The SP price is just easy to give a finishing point of where the price ended. The SP moves because the market has been destroyed, not because of anything happening in the SP market.

Exchange goes from 4.00 to 10.00, the SP goes there with it, without a cent bet in the SP market.


But yes, I have had the same response, there is somebody on course to make sure the markets are suspended live.


PDC:
Yes, this certainly happened prior to covid restrictions, however since the restrictions have come in, and NOBODY is allowed on track, it does show up the real possibility the something sinister is in play, or BF are not being entirely up front about how they are suspending markets, at the very least.
Even if they are being dishonest about having people on track, which at this point I am in very little doubt they aren't sitting in an office watching sky racing with dial up internet, who exactly is having a multiple second advantage?

I believe the race you mentioned was void with the excuse given that BF missed suspending it on time. Whether that would have happened if something so drastic didn't happen though, anybody's guess.