Horse Racing in OZ

[Charles49]

For the forum members who live in Australia (and for those who wish they did!!) this thread will hopefully be a platform for the exchange of ideas and information about what's happening in the land down under.
The general thrust will concentrate on horse racing and how to trade the markets here using The Toy including in-play. We like to have a bit of fun too so you are most welcome to add any humorous bits and pieces that you think others will enjoy.
So feel free to drop in and say gidday mate!!!

[ned flanders]

Hi Charles,

Nice to see a fellow banana bender on here!

Regards,

NF

[Leonthefixer]

How are you finding the markets? Is there much money during the week or is it all still just Saturdays?

[Charles49]

Thanks NF...have sent you a PM.

[Charles49]

How are you finding the markets? Is there much money during the week or is it all still just Saturdays?

Hi Leon and welcome to this thread.
Thats an excellent question and I'll endeavour to answer it as best I can.
The Australian horse racing markets are quite different to that experienced in the UK for example. There the liquidity is significant and the fields are listed from the favourite downwards. In Australia the markets lack liquidity and you need to be cautious with your trading strategy so that you dont expose yourself to large liabilities. The fields are listed here in saddlecloth order with the topweight allocated saddlecloth number 1 and so on from there.
The Toy provides you with an opportunity to duplicate the UK style order via the preferences so you have the field on your screen with the favourite on top. Its what I do as it simplifys everything and you dont have to go scrolling down looking for the lowest priced conveyance every time you open up a new race.
On Saturdays here the liquidity on favourites makes for acceptable trading conditions but it does fall away as you move away from the fav. I find that the best liquidity is to be found on Melbourne and Sydney where the markets are relatively stable from say 30 minutes to racetime. Unfortunately Adelaide, Brisbane and in particular Perth markets are quite often at 120% or greater with 10 minutes or less to the start.
Midweek markets in the main are too volatile for my liking and I tend to shy away from the majority of mid week racing.
I am aware that there are traders who love the early markets as they like to lay into early markets that are poor value knowing they have a high degree of probability to trade out with a profitable back bet when the markets move from say 140% to around 100%. It helps if you can accurately anticipate which short priced horses are likely to ease..not easy I know but there are some who listen for the specials and trade the second or third favs early on in anticipation of the daily specials being heavily supported, resulting in the market then easing the other contenders.
Unfortunately Betfair withdrew the option here to take SP and since that occurred it appears imho that the liquidity on horseracing here has dropped. My take is that the weekend punter who was off to the footy to watch his favourite team play could simply take SP first thing in the morning and his bets were on. Now his option to do this is only available through alternative avenues.
Trading inplay here is something I dont do as I find its too risky for me. My preference is to trade out prior to the jump whilst the money is there to do so.
Hope that gives you a good overview Leon and again I thank you for your question.
Regards.

[Leonthefixer]

Many thanks for the detailed reply!

I lived in Australia for a bit over 18 months. I lived in Scone in the Hunter working at Darley Stud so know a bit about the industry and the markets but when I was there a few years back BF was basically non existent.

I traded the UK markets when I was over there but not Full time like I do now.

I am always keen to hear about the Oz industry and how Betfair is developing over there from two view points. Firstly my basic interest in the racing industry but also of course form a trading point of view.

I had a look las tSaturday and the money was okay, nothing like UK racing but as you say tradeable. I haven't bothered looking at the midweek races as they are just the run of the mill stuff so assumed they weren't seeing much money.

How do you see the markets growing over there? I think there is a lot of promise and think they will grow to be perfectly tradeable in a few years time.

Scott Ferguson (has a blog, used to work for Betfair) had this to say recently when I asked him:

"as soon as the online betting in-running ban is overturned, Betfair will explode in Australia because that is their big selling point over everyone else. With best tote, best of best tote or SP, most of the sports being h2h etc, the corporate bookies are very competitive, so punters haven't had to move if they didn't want to.

My guess is late 2010 for the Fed Govt to pull their finger out and scrap the law. Maybe then a few folks will start offering early prices on daily racing rather than just weekends. I thought it would have occurred naturally by now.."

Would be interested to hear what you guys think as I am a bit away from it all being back in the UK now. Would be great if they were to become tradeable. All we would need then would be the US racing to get its act together

[Charles49]

Again thanks Leon for your constructive and positive comments.
The history of Betfair here is an interesting one. Interesting I guess from the initial nonsense that was circulating in respect of how the sky was going to fall in if Betfair ever got a foothold in Australia. I recall writing a number of articles in response to some of the nonsense that was out there, partly out of frustration with the Tabs hollier than thou attitude that permeated the scene then and partly because I was a warrior for change and better deals for the punter.
Betfair's arrival here was the best thing thats happened for the average punter here in recent times.They hooked up with a license through the Tasmanian Government and entered into a deal with the Packer family.Subsequently corporate bookmakers and Tabs have had to lift their game to compete and thats good news for the punter. There has never been a better punting environment and variety of choice as now exists.
Imho some of that gloss has been lost by the introduction of the premium charge and the abolition of the SP option. But if you want to play bookmaker then BF is the best option here.
I have a high opinion of Scott Ferguson and the articles he writes about sports betting and in particular tennis. His reviews of forthcoming tennis tournaments are a must for serious traders. Having said that I assume what was meant to be said in the opening sentence of his quote to you was the ban we have here about inplay sports betting. We can bet in running on a computer during a horse race but not inplay during a sports event irrespective if its in Australia or anywhere else in the world. But we can ring a toll free number and place a bet inplay over the phone yet its illegal to use a computer to do exactly the same exercise. Some of our laws defy logic but thats another story!
I think we all agree that sports betting here is the fastest growth area in the betting arena. And if they turf out the silly inplay rules which everyone bar one notable pollie thinks is ridiculous then yes I agree with Scott that Betfair would be well positioned to capitalise. But dont expect it to happen until well into 2010.
So as you see Leon the landscape has changed a lot since your time here in the Hunter Valley.!!
One of the aspects that I admire about BF is their willingness to go into battle when Governments produce wobbly legislation. They took on the WA Govt and won the battle to bet on WA racing. Recently they have taken on the issue of turnover tax in NSW and I noticed an article in the Financial Review recently where the NSW Govt has filed for an urgent appeal in the Federal Court seeking to overturn a Judge's ruling that requires the NSW Government to provide documents of disclosure. Interesting days ahead me thinks.
Once again thanks for your thoughts and comments.

[Temujin]

Aus markets certainly have their moments. But for UK traders looking for races every 10 minutes, making a certain amount every race, I doubt it is for you. They are certainly picking up though, even some midweek meetings have a fair turnover, depending on the meeting, and the horses running. They are not consistant money makers, but there is certainly money there to be made on average.
Basically, it is a case of 1 decent trader turns up, cleans up. Markets are certainly good enough for that. Get all UK traders turning up at once, and there are not enough punters to support them.

Perfect time of year for those that want to check them out though. Some very big races, carnivals, on now, and coming up. Just a pity I will miss the biggest day of all.. :S
Start the transition to Cairns next Thurday, so between the drive up, organising a house (not easy with no income, not even guaranteed that this will end well.. :S), then organising phone/internet/electricity after that, and I will be looking for internet cafes to at least try to make something. Would hate to think I would be spending 2 weeks boozing on picking up backpackers.. :O Hmmmmmmm...

Good to see some fellow Aussies living the dream too though...

[Charles49]

Hi Temujin and welcome to the thread.
As the Australian Cultural Attache having assumed the mantel from Barry Humphries I congratulate you on your appointment. Hope he gave you all the left over gladiolli's as part of the changeover ceremony.!!
Enough of the frivoulous stuff. I do thank you for your comments which are a true reflection of how the betting scenario is here.
Moving to Cairns at this time of year is a fun exercise so you are a brave man to tackle this one. The lifestyle up there is quite laid back so hope it works out well for you.
Whats your trading preferences...horses, cricket, aussie bloody rules, tennis perhaps??
And do you find the Toy easy to trade with??
Good luck with your move and thanks for your input.

[Temujin]

I have no preferences. I do whatever is on.
Obviously with horse racing on every day, you could put that to the top of the list. T20 cricket can be a good earner (can be a 1.01 train too though which can cause hassles, as per last night :S), Aussie Rules is a good earner, Rugby not too bad either. Tennis, alot of money in the markets, but haven't had too much success with that, yet.
Right now though, my concentrations are horses, NFL, and cricket. Will certainly be checking out alot of tennis over the local tour events though.

[Charles49]

Much the same here Temujin. Certainly the bulk of my transactions are horseracing. Saturday is my busiest day. In a six hour session I usually end up with about 170 transactions so its pretty much full on.
Cricket has been the most profitable for me I think because of the structure of the markets here. What I mean by that is that one dayers and T20 games have markets that are built around opinions as to where the end result is anticipated. That provides opportunities to trade inplay and because the fluctuations are huge at times there are normally plenty of times where you can close out with a nice green.
Good luck with the shift to Cairns!!

[Charles49]

For those who like a bet. Whobegotya will be a good back bet as I expect it will firm into about $3.
For those who like a lay bet the fav in Race 4 Rangirangdoo has history against him.
Lady Lynette, Avenue, Lucky Secret and Carrara should prove good each way bets. Roughie at odds..Bank Robber.

[DJB]

Good to see a thread dedicated to us Aussies (convicts for the UK people). Trade most days however higher stakes only used on Wed and Sat horse racing. Also making the seachange to Cairns in the new year to get away from the southern winters and start trading fulltime.

Have found price movements are closely related to corporate markets with good swings available at the provincial meetings if you can spot the right horse. Strike rates for horses that are backed on betfair seems pretty good ( no statistacal backup) and drifting favourites never seem to keep up.

Used the geeks toy for the first time yesterday. The speed threw me a bit early but by days end was comfortable with it. The ability to filter meetings and have ladder and grid on the same screen are a welcome feature. Congrats to Geek for the best software I have tried since the demise (alleged) of RT.

Well done to all. Bring on Melb.Cup carnival!!!!

[The Geek]

The speed threw me a bit early but by days end was comfortable with it.

What do you mean the speed threw you a bit? Would you like me to add in a half second delay to everything so you feel at home?

[DJB]

Previously used BR Pro then tried free trial of other Betfair Trading software. Don't compare to The Toy. Well done Geek!