~30k for 30 seconds' work?

[LaffanD]

Even more suspect is that Giroud scored twice.

[ForeTwo]

https://twitter.com/followSTL/status/294174238330458113/photo/1

...suspect?

[Rocket to the FACE]

Simply No, because :
http://www.rball.com/

Betfair tries to get the information fast and on time and not to let anyone to beat the clock.( Via the scouts, satellite channels, radio etc)

If we remove people placing bets in the stadium or someone who randomly finds they can beat the suspend in one game with their radio feed the one common denominator is RunningBall - they have the information before anybody else and importantly...the ability to use it as they please by simply delaying the time they take to transmit their info or suspend the market.
Is it too much to imagine the £8 an hour students they send to the games may have their RunningBall device in one hand and their iPhone in the other - if you catch my drift.

However it happens we are left with 2 conclusions:

1)Betfair know who does it and allow it.

2)It is a different person each time who finds they can do it through luck which would beg the question how are there so many of these people with enough ready cash sitting and waiting to take advantage?

A possible third explanation is that it is the same group or same individuals doing it regularly and they can open new accounts, fund them with large amounts of cash and withdraw it again all without attracting the attention of Betfair.

So unless there is another explanation all 3 point to a severe weakness at Betfair.

[Rocket to the FACE]

Any chance it was somebody that got caught with a huge lay liability on the off that just had to take a red , or someone that had a large green pre match taking the profit ?

I said that earlier and to be honest, in this case it is the most likely explanation.

[Rocket to the FACE]

2) They would not pay through 20 (or whatever) tick levels as they are uncertain as to where the fair value should be given the new information- they only know the direction. If a team is all ready up 5-0 is another goal going to move the prices more? What about if the market is currently at 2 and a goal is scored- where should the market move to- sure this can be modeled by a poisson process- but you will find that the lamda (expected goal arrival rate) for the two teams is not stable through time and accordingly, is pretty difficult to work out what the market consensus would be as to where the market will settle

It's not hard to do manually and I imagine with a database behind you pretty simple to automate, hence the reason new prices hit markets pretty much as soon as they re-open after a goal. Of course the market makers who get kick backs from Betfair will always have their bets in the market before anybody else and are likely to be the most accurate as they employ people specifically to analyse this sort of thing so that their prices are the most accurate.
If a team is 5-0 up then there will be nothing to back but another goal will certainly move other markets out, unders/overs being the obvious one but also Next Goal etc


EDIT: Sorry, I realise you're talking specifically about hooverers here who may not have databases or such. Although the more it goes on the more I suspect they may well do and that the hoovering is done by way of bent employees or underhand agreements. But somebody taking an opportunity by being at the game or having some fast radio feed probably does not but then they are hoovering before the suspend not putting new prices up when the market re-opens.

[Temujin]

Tem I agree if a goal was scored and all traders knew this information and the market was not suspended for a whopping 30 seconds then the prices most likely would have moved to fair value by then.

But again if you really want to nit pick then yes the original poster said 30 seconds. I doubt they had a stopwatch for this and that is the exact time - but rather just a rough estimate which could be replaced with "shortly after" or "several seconds later".

But again for the sake of argument lets say it did happen 30 seconds later, unless the gentlemen was watching this game live then the 30 seconds is a number more useless than my nanosecond or 1 second example. This is for the very reason that they have absolutely no idea when the goal actually occurred as their "live" feed is not live at all. Broadcast delays of 1 minute on live sports events have been reported- at a very minimum you are looking at about 7 seconds. Please see the link below:

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/771-tv-broadcast-delays-and-live-betting/

Seems like this is a pretty circular argument about theoretical market micro structures which a conclusive answer will never be found so I'll leave you to no doubt have the last say.

Read it again. The game started, suspended, went in play, a bet was placed for 49k taking the market down 3-4 ticks, then 30 seconds after the bet was placed, a goal was scored. There was no suspend before that time was up. The bet was placed 30 seconds before the market suspended. That gives anybody that saw the goal 30 seconds to take the price down to whatever odds they want. They didn't, they weren't ahead of the clock. Full stop.

Doesn't matter if the OP was 10 seconds behind, 30 seconds behind, or watching a replay the next day after watching the market live with zero vision. As soon as the game went in play on BF, somebody bet, 30 seconds later the market suspended again.
If the market was open for 20-30 seconds after the goal was scored, it would have moved to 1.30, and the thread would be about how the market was open for 20-30 seconds after the goal scored, and not about 1 single bet that got paid off quickly.

And no, maybe he didn't have a stop watch, but you know that big thing in the left corner of GT that has a green background? Since it was 30 seconds after the game went in play, he would have a pretty good idea when the market suspended of how long it was, because it would have been up on his screen.
Have you used the program yet? I highly recommend it.

[3virgul14]

Guys, you all know what it means to score a goal in football.

It changes the result of the game!

One, who traded horses in-running once in a lifetime, would know that any horse with no absolute chance of winning( fell on the fence, pulled up etc) would be layed to 1000 immediately in 2 seconds of time!

Did you ever wonder why and how so fast? Because the market is not suspended. Many tracksiders and SIS+TURF TV subscribers are chasing this opportunity every single day!

Any goal , by all means are the same, you can lay up to 1000 in the following markets;
HT Score, Correct Score, Relevant Unders Market ( 0.5 / 1.5/ 2.5 etc )

Theoratically , Temuijin is right that there is no limit. You can hoover the odds all the way up from 1.20 to 1000 when a goal is scored at the 42nd minute of any game while the score is 0-0 , of course if you can beat the clock and suspension monkey. Why we don`t see it?

The reason is the same as why betfair is suspending the markets asap after a goal scored.

They want the trading community believe that its an equal game and competition between the traders.

Which is not true, if you ever check an EPL game and try to lay any under/CS market before a dangerous corner or freekick, you will always see odds move up 4-5-6 or 20 ticks very quickly, even if you watch it from the fastest satellite channel. Are the in-stadium traders able to beat the clock and hit 1000 after the goal is scored?

Simply No, because :
http://www.rball.com/

Betfair tries to get the information fast and on time and not to let anyone to beat the clock.( Via the scouts, satellite channels, radio etc)


As I mentioned before, if BF suspects that you are continuously able to beat the suspension and hoover the markets where they are definitely behind of you, they cancel your bets or void all the markets. ( Or they change the rules of game by improving their technology, increasing the bet delay - currently Spain has gone up to 10 seconds whilst in UK some games are 5 seconds!!)

[rphi6876]

Without trying to sound like a prick, nothing you have just said really means anything. Nano second? Even 1 second to correct after a score? We are talking about 30 seconds. Somebody bought the market in 3-4 ticks 49k bets, and 30 seconds later there was a score. The suggestion was that it was because there was a delay to suspending the market and the bet was due to the goal already being scored to which I pointed out it was extremely unlikely.
The whole thread since then has been arguing with me that it could easily be hooverers working together to not bring the price in more than 4 ticks even when they are 30 seconds ahead of the BF suspend.

Sometimes it is a good idea to read peoples threads in regards to the context of the thread.
Just saying.
~30k for 30 seconds' work?
Just after the Valencia game kicked off (I mean red suspend, then go), someone backed Valencia with 49k taking all orders down 3-4 ticks.

About 30 seconds later they score.

Tem I agree if a goal was scored and all traders knew this information and the market was not suspended for a whopping 30 seconds then the prices most likely would have moved to fair value by then.

But again if you really want to nit pick then yes the original poster said 30 seconds. I doubt they had a stopwatch for this and that is the exact time - but rather just a rough estimate which could be replaced with "shortly after" or "several seconds later".

But again for the sake of argument lets say it did happen 30 seconds later, unless the gentlemen was watching this game live then the 30 seconds is a number more useless than my nanosecond or 1 second example. This is for the very reason that they have absolutely no idea when the goal actually occurred as their "live" feed is not live at all. Broadcast delays of 1 minute on live sports events have been reported- at a very minimum you are looking at about 7 seconds. Please see the link below:

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/771-tv-broadcast-delays-and-live-betting/

Seems like this is a pretty circular argument about theoretical market micro structures which a conclusive answer will never be found so I'll leave you to no doubt have the last say.

[PC0845]

Tem, the day you can accept an argument which is not yours I will open a good bottle!

Actually you have the knowledge and potential to write very interesting stuff, ...but the way you do is utterly annoying. Ridiculous hair-splitting blabbering. Conversation zero. Opinion leadership at all costs. Disgusting!

You need to have a serious think.

I don't agree, I hear enough bullshit PC at work every day.

He is not forcing his opinion down your throat, ignore his posts if they distress you. As far as I am concerned he and Custard are the best posters on the site by the very nature of their posts. He is entitled to use any tone he wants (you are not the moderator) just as you are entitled to complain about his tone.

[PC0845]

Without trying to sound like a prick

~30k for 30 seconds' work?
Just after the Valencia game kicked off (I mean red suspend, then go), someone backed Valencia with 49k taking all orders down 3-4 ticks.

About 30 seconds later they score.

Any chance it was somebody that got caught with a huge lay liability on the off that just had to take a red , or someone that had a large green pre match taking the profit ?

[Temujin]

As stated in my original post I think the truth lies half way between what you and 1/4MF stated. I do not think there is only 1 person on BF that can beat the clock- I was simply outlining what problems a rational trader might consider. I do know only a select few could afford the super fast data feeds.

Given the market frictions I mentioned the market will not correct in a nano second it will take time- perhaps only 1 second but time, however, if the market is suspended before that time then prices will not have fully moved. If only a select (super fast) few get their orders into the market before betfair suspends it is then possible (not guaranteed) that prices may only move a few ticks. Surely you must agree that is plausible? And the problem of greening has been conveniently overlooked.

I am not stating this is what happens always- simply, that on occasion there are possible reasons for the market to only move a few ticks before it is suspended. ie. a lucky few who are faster than everybody else got a few bets on before the market was suspended.

But as I stated previously this is nothing but opinion with no empirical evidence to verify- the closest I can offer to empirical results regarding betfair prices movement when goals are scored is the paper titled "The Role of Surprise: Understanding Overreaction and Underreaction to Unanticipated Events using In-Play Soccer Betting Market" by Choi and Hui. It is worth a read as it does highlight some market inefficiencies occur. To reinforce the point that market frictions occur I refer you to the paper "How quickly is temporary market inefficiency removed?" by Marshall which shows that arbs may exist for many hours. But how can that be? that is just free money lying around? Again because of market frictions.

http://ihome.ust.hk/~dchoi/Betfair_ChoiHui.pdf

Without trying to sound like a prick, nothing you have just said really means anything. Nano second? Even 1 second to correct after a score? We are talking about 30 seconds. Somebody bought the market in 3-4 ticks 49k bets, and 30 seconds later there was a score. The suggestion was that it was because there was a delay to suspending the market and the bet was due to the goal already being scored to which I pointed out it was extremely unlikely.
The whole thread since then has been arguing with me that it could easily be hooverers working together to not bring the price in more than 4 ticks even when they are 30 seconds ahead of the BF suspend.

Sometimes it is a good idea to read peoples threads in regards to the context of the thread.
Just saying.
~30k for 30 seconds' work?
Just after the Valencia game kicked off (I mean red suspend, then go), someone backed Valencia with 49k taking all orders down 3-4 ticks.

About 30 seconds later they score.

[rphi6876]

Apart from all of that, you are really naive to think that there is only 1 person on BF. If somebody can beat the clock, then many can. Simple as that. And if many people are competing against each other to gather money from the market after a goal is scored, then it will move much more than 3-4 ticks.

.

As stated in my original post I think the truth lies half way between what you and 1/4MF stated. I do not think there is only 1 person on BF that can beat the clock- I was simply outlining what problems a rational trader might consider. I do know only a select few could afford the super fast data feeds.

Given the market frictions I mentioned the market will not correct in a nano second it will take time- perhaps only 1 second but time, however, if the market is suspended before that time then prices will not have fully moved. If only a select (super fast) few get their orders into the market before betfair suspends it is then possible (not guaranteed) that prices may only move a few ticks. Surely you must agree that is plausible? And the problem of greening has been conveniently overlooked.

I am not stating this is what happens always- simply, that on occasion there are possible reasons for the market to only move a few ticks before it is suspended. ie. a lucky few who are faster than everybody else got a few bets on before the market was suspended.

But as I stated previously this is nothing but opinion with no empirical evidence to verify- the closest I can offer to empirical results regarding betfair prices movement when goals are scored is the paper titled "The Role of Surprise: Understanding Overreaction and Underreaction to Unanticipated Events using In-Play Soccer Betting Market" by Choi and Hui. It is worth a read as it does highlight some market inefficiencies occur. To reinforce the point that market frictions occur I refer you to the paper "How quickly is temporary market inefficiency removed?" by Marshall which shows that arbs may exist for many hours. But how can that be? that is just free money lying around? Again because of market frictions.

http://ihome.ust.hk/~dchoi/Betfair_ChoiHui.pdf

[Temujin]

And actually, you will notice I posted up a vid, showing my totals for the year, in EVERY account I have, with daily averages, totals, and everything at my disposal including about 12 different accounts.


Much more than I ever should have to do to post on a forum.

[Temujin]

You've misquoted me.

Um no, I didn't quote you at all. The topic was beating the clock in regards to when a goal is scored and betting before others knew due to Betfair not suspending the market.

If you decided to make a comment that had nothing to do with that, that isn't me misquoting anybody.

I wouldn't worry about it he'll either misquote or ignore relevant points to prove his points. Think the only time I've seen him disappear from an argument was when someone asked him to prove his profits on one of the charity threads couldn't get his running shoes on fast enough then

Say what? It isn't up to me to prove anything to anybody. Who the hell are you to need to know how much I make and when I made it?
I believe what I said, was there was no way of me proving anything if I even wanted to, as when you do lots of arbing, lots of gambling, and Betfair is just one of your accounts, your BF P/L statement really isn't an indicator of your total profit and loss anyway, so without giving screenshots of every account I have, there is no way to prove anything, to anybody that I couldn't care less if they believe me or not anyway.

Happy for you to show the post though to back up your suggesting of me running away from the thread.


What it boils down to, is a price will not move 3-4 ticks due to BF not suspending a goal. It moves for various reasons, such as correction.
The price will move 3-4 ticks on a point in tennis, there is nobody in their right mind that would suggest it would only move 3-4 ticks on a goal in soccer.


Not sure where you are piping up from rhi, but the relevance of your piggyback reneg of my posting is really negligible. Somebody that is backing at 1.01 and laying at 1000 every time they enter a market is not really somebody that needs to be bought into an intellectual debate. Not to mention the suggestion that you don't know where a market will move on a goal from a scoreline of 5-0. It won't really move because there is nowhere for it to move to. Can't go lower than 1.01.

Apart from all of that, you are really naive to think that there is only 1 person on BF. If somebody can beat the clock, then many can. Simple as that. And if many people are competing against each other to gather money from the market after a goal is scored, then it will move much more than 3-4 ticks.

I like how people would rather make stuff up though than answer questions after being shown up.
MF. Where is your stats on "the off chance a goal will be allowed"? No? Just a suggestion that I will run from an argument because I am full of shit because I don't even make a profit.

Would be happy for you to point us to your post though in the Charity Challenge. I couldn't seem to find it.

[WhyAlwaysMe]

rphi6876 you are making this sound awfully difficult .

You don't have to be much of a football mystic to know what the market price will be after a goal. It would be an easy task to avoid negative expectation at least.

I accept you would have to limit your liability on any one game but this is a risk taking business too. Again it wouldn't be that taxing to knock up a suitable approach.