Football trading idea

[r2997790]

Hi all --

Been toying (excuse the pun) with a few trading ideas on football...

What do you all think about the HT markets...

BACK 0-0
LAY Draw

Both will decay as HT approaches... if a goal goes in, you could hedge the Draw by Backing it.

If the Half finishes 0-0 you get a tidy profit too.

Cheers
R

[Ted]

R this site ok for 1/2 time stats. Click on main Console,

Click on h/t stats then click on league, then the match you want.

[Ted]

OOPS, forgot to name site

http://www.simplesoccerstats.com/NewConsole.html

[Paolo]

Hi all --

Been toying (excuse the pun) with a few trading ideas on football...

What do you all think about the HT markets...

BACK 0-0
LAY Draw

Both will decay as HT approaches... if a goal goes in, you could hedge the Draw by Backing it.

If the Half finishes 0-0 you get a tidy profit too.

Cheers
R

Try. Create your theme and test this system.
I think it will be simplier if you will stake LAY 1-1.

[Timstertoo]

Hi all --

Been toying (excuse the pun) with a few trading ideas on football...

What do you all think about the HT markets...

BACK 0-0
LAY Draw

Both will decay as HT approaches... if a goal goes in, you could hedge the Draw by Backing it.

If the Half finishes 0-0 you get a tidy profit too.

Cheers
R

Hi R,

Good that you are thinking of ways to combine stuff!

I'm afraid you'll find though that the market efficiency will make this a losing proposition in the long run as they are closely correlated and basically you'll be losing your commission everytime you bet.

And seeing as it's two different markets you'll be paying full comission over your winning bet.

Now don't let this demotivate you as you've made the first step in thinking as a trader as many have done before you!

[Paolo]

Hi R,

Good that you are thinking of ways to combine stuff!

I'm afraid you'll find though that the market efficiency will make this a losing proposition in the long run as they are closely correlated and basically you'll be losing your commission everytime you bet.

And seeing as it's two different markets you'll be paying full comission over your winning bet.

Now don't let this demotivate you as you've made the first step in thinking as a trader as many have done before you!

Yes, there is between 2 markets is comission there.
I recomend you play LAY 1-1, you will have your 1,05 - 1,15 in every game. It's simplier. btw with your strategy you will have less than 1,05, maybe 1,01 and spended time.
Or I recomend to play on totals.

[Firkinelle]

Yes, there is between 2 markets is comission there.
I recomend you play LAY 1-1, you will have your 1,05 - 1,15 in every game. It's simplier. btw with your strategy you will have less than 1,05, maybe 1,01 and spended time.
Or I recomend to play on totals.

Not sure I understand you Paolo when you say lay 1-1 and you'll have 1.05 - 1.15 in every game, can you explain please.

Thanks

[Wednesday 13]

I think he wants to say that you may lay 1-1 at HT at odds somwehere between 7 and 21, which gives you effective back odds of 1.05 to 1.15, i.e., you may expect ROI 5 to 15 %, while it would be lower in original strategy described in post #1.

[Paolo]

Not sure I understand you Paolo when you say lay 1-1 and you'll have 1.05 - 1.15 in every game, can you explain please.

Thanks

OK. I take the match Real - Barcelona. LAY 1-1 is 7,4.
7,4/(7,4-1)=1,16
1,16 is BACK all scores excepting 1-1
It's simple.

[Paolo]

I think he wants to say that you may lay 1-1 at HT at odds somwehere between 7 and 21, which gives you effective back odds of 1.05 to 1.15, i.e., you may expect ROI 5 to 15 %, while it would be lower in original strategy described in post #1.

Look. I take real match Real vs Barcelona
0-0 = 9,8
LAY draw 3,35 = 1,43
After goal of any team a Draw will be 4-4,5, maybe 5-6
Now we count(I will count with comission between markets)
If 5 your coefficient will be -1,01 (no profit)
If 6 your coefficient will be 1,01
If 7 = 1,03
If 8 = 1,05
If 9 = 1,07
If 10 = 1,09
But usually after first goals in so matches coefficient is 4-6, so you will have 1,01. Of course you can wait for example 10-20 mins and coeff will be higher maybe even 7-8 or you can wait 2-0, than you will have coef 10-15, but after second goal you don't need a draw.
So it is simplier to bet on LAY 1-1 and you will have 1,05-1,15 every game and to have the same risk, but you will not spend your time.

[Firkinelle]

OK. I take the match Real - Barcelona. LAY 1-1 is 7,4.
7,4/(7,4-1)=1,16
1,16 is BACK all scores excepting 1-1
It's simple.

Thanks Poalo, I think I'm with you

[custard]

Thanks Poalo, I think I'm with you

I am having some difficulty in understanding this strategy but I'm only learning. Is anybody able to explain in terms of "real" prices available in the markets relating to the Real Madrid v Barcelona game which is being played this evening, please ?

[Paolo]

I am having some difficulty in understanding this strategy but I'm only learning. Is anybody able to explain in terms of "real" prices available in the markets relating to the Real Madrid v Barcelona game which is being played this evening, please ?

What do you want what we explain you? I gave example from real game Real - Barca.

Do you want to LAY 1-1 or BACK 0-0 and LAY a draw?
Never mind, bet on LAY 1-1 and go to watch the game. You will have about 15% after game. If you want to use strategy "Football Cash Generator lols" then you will sit at monitor and wait first goal and you will have 0-1% of your stakes.
Or you can bet on LAY 0-0 after 1st half, it is the same strategy what topicstarter gave.

[jassurin]

Paolo, besides 1-1 there are 16 other selections in the correct score market, right?Are you backing them, all while you at the same time lay the 1-1? If so, how do you approach the stake sizes for these selections?

happy trading

Jassurin

[jassurin]

Small correction! 15 other selections, it is!