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Hi. So I posted this question on the Betfair forums, but nobody really seems willing to help, or doesn't know the answer. Either way, I am looking for formulas for Excel to help me prove a systems paramaters, and statistic probabilities.. Here is a copy/paste of the post with the info I am looking for....
Will post this on the general betting also, but here we go. Normally thrive on this type of question, but been pulling all nighters all week and brain a little fried.
What I am looking for is system testing help, in regards to variance, and confidence levels.
Firstly, I will say, I completely understand that I have way too few results to do anything, but that is irrelevant at the moment. I am simply looking to place a confidence level indicator in my sheet
Here are the raw stats, for now:
128 races
1120 runners
44 identified bets
.248596 average market share per runner (average odds per runner ~4.02258823)
19 winners
10.93823 needed winners (before commission)
74% edge (edge probably wrong term here, maybe simply profit)
Easy enough to find how to test a system when you know, or at least guess your ROI, or edge, but if you are trying to find your edge, at a certain confidence level to find out just how early you are into your testing.
Not exactly sure of the format, but I would guess something like:
.95 confidence edge >-.5 and >2.5 where I could replace the edge figures to find the confidence level.
I have since updated it to show that I have learnt about Archie scores, but due to the number of results, I have little confidence in the score given, since it basically suggests this is the real deal.
Looking for maths to show why this isn't, and any data I can input into Excel that will help me easily identify confidence levels in system testing.
FTR, I have been running this live for a few days now, and while the results aren't as good as the backtesting, they are certainly worth continuing on.
Not looking for opinions, unless of course those opinions are backed up with maths formulas.
Thanks anybody that can help.....
Will post this on the general betting also, but here we go. Normally thrive on this type of question, but been pulling all nighters all week and brain a little fried.
What I am looking for is system testing help, in regards to variance, and confidence levels.
Firstly, I will say, I completely understand that I have way too few results to do anything, but that is irrelevant at the moment. I am simply looking to place a confidence level indicator in my sheet
Here are the raw stats, for now:
128 races
1120 runners
44 identified bets
.248596 average market share per runner (average odds per runner ~4.02258823)
19 winners
10.93823 needed winners (before commission)
74% edge (edge probably wrong term here, maybe simply profit)
Easy enough to find how to test a system when you know, or at least guess your ROI, or edge, but if you are trying to find your edge, at a certain confidence level to find out just how early you are into your testing.
Not exactly sure of the format, but I would guess something like:
.95 confidence edge >-.5 and >2.5 where I could replace the edge figures to find the confidence level.
I have since updated it to show that I have learnt about Archie scores, but due to the number of results, I have little confidence in the score given, since it basically suggests this is the real deal.
Looking for maths to show why this isn't, and any data I can input into Excel that will help me easily identify confidence levels in system testing.
FTR, I have been running this live for a few days now, and while the results aren't as good as the backtesting, they are certainly worth continuing on.
Not looking for opinions, unless of course those opinions are backed up with maths formulas.
Thanks anybody that can help.....
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