trading getting harder

[d70ejk]

There is a very good reason that the markets have been harder during the last year+ that very few people seem to be aware of.

I don't have time to go into this now but I will write up in detail exactly why this is happening when I have time on Sunday and why honestly most people would be well advised not to waste their time and money with this game anymore.

Two weeks since this post. Got me intriuged first time up. Anything to add?

[Steven1976]

I am curious.. what I can say:

especially in the last 12 weeks and massivly in the last 4 weeks
on horse-markets
pre-match
on the outsiders (as normally I dont trade fav's or mid-fav's)

there is 1 very big player or bot that dominates the pre-match-horse-markets as he wants, in his own gusto. pushing up 10-15-20 ticks and then pushing down doesnt effect the total book because the outsider-prices have quasi no influence to the book, so its easy possible. for example he pushed a price from 220 with no problem to 750 in 1 immediate move with a lay-stake of 255. thats a bank of 255x750=191250. with a bank of 191250 he can do whatever he wants, how long he wants and at any price he wants.

I cant understand betfair: yes, commission 60% of that person counts. but how long? liquidity on the outsiders is 1/10 from months ago. also on the mid-fav's between 7/8 and 20 you can spot him easily. so: I am staying away. the theoretical end will be: no one trades the horse races any longer because there are no longer any fish, only 1 big shark..

Also interested in hearing bazbaz comments.

I'd imagine its all runners they are controlling. Its the only way really, as it would give them the ability if say a big back bet on the favourite came into the market to push out the price whilst adjusting the book on other runners. Whether its a player or betfair themselves I'm not sure. Ive seen something to suggest its betfair themselves but could never be certain. Not that it matters who it is but it makes it harder for traders taking scalps and forces them out as there is no real need for them I guess.

[skit]

There is a very good reason that the markets have been harder during the last year+ that very few people seem to be aware of.

I don't have time to go into this now but I will write up in detail exactly why this is happening when I have time on Sunday and why honestly most people would be well advised not to waste their time and money with this game anymore.

No further comment?

[Steven1976]

bloke breakdown

[flok]

hy guys, i stopped trading since almost 1 year, but sometimes i like to come take a look in the forum and i'm still in touch with some users to get "news from the battlefield".
i dont trade anymore because betfair closed my account on the .com and the .it separate exchange sucks. also, because of personal reasons, something happened in my life and didnt allow me to do anything with clear mind for some time, dont even think about trading.

i'm very interested in this thread, cause 1 year ago i complained about similar things people complain about now, but most of people said i was complaining only for personal reasons, cause i wasnt anymore able to earn as much as i did before.
my theory is always the same: betfair (or market-maker companies linked to betfair) has its traders/bots and is trading its own markets. naturally the internal traders have access to informations that are unaccessible to normal users. and this is illegal in every other market, but betfair isnt controlled.
would you play poker on a poker site where some users have advantages or can see your cards?

[inandout]

I have adapted strategies numerous times over a fifteen year period and have now found trading Cheltenham (other big meetings) is one big, often unworthwhile, grind. I used to love the potential for huge stakes and turnover but now find the lesser meetings far more profitable, due to the movement/unpredictability of the markets.

[d70ejk]

Of course.... just what it says in the terms. But its not regulated like other financial markets, your right why would they stop it... more commission after all. And of course they know who it is, im sure its a minority of people with the kind of liability required to do that on multiple runners in a horse race (above). A max-unmatched bets cap in the horse racing would be an idea.... Nobody needs to leave 100k plus liability sat about now do they, especially if they dont want it matching.....maybe its just getting under my skin a bit too much lately, who knows.

Well, here's an extreme example of market manipulation and its regulation in financial markets. £588,000 in one day!!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financial-crime/11553433/British-trader-Nav-Sarao-charged-with-triggering-global-markets-flash-crash-in-2010.html