trading getting harder

[jimmy123]

There is a lot of manipulation that goes on, but that is just trading. Just have to figure out what other people are doing. For example sometimes if you take on a 1000 pound position 20 minutes before the off is something not that liquid, they person opposite your position will take the market against you, then takes it back in your favor closer to the close If they do this, then you should double down if you can figure out that someone is actually doing this.

[Caan Berry]

There is a lot of manipulation that goes on, but that is just trading. Just have to figure out what other people are doing. For example sometimes if you take on a 1000 pound position 20 minutes before the off is something not that liquid, they person opposite your position will take the market against you, then takes it back in your favor closer to the close If they do this, then you should double down if you can figure out that someone is actually doing this.

Yes it is trading, but when its one or two individuals with several thousand stacked on every price for the next ten prices on multiple runners its really not that clear cut to take them on and wait, they are hedging out across the entire book in my opinion. Which isnt all that much of a problem seeing they pretty much control it. Betfair know this but only thing they are looking at is commission generated, which ironically is what half this strategy is about seeing the person doing it is certainly paying 60% and probably the biggest user in the horse racing markets. To say it is 'just trading' is a bit of a laugh as its brutal at times stopping anyone else from getting bets matched, as you said Jimmy, if someone has a 1000 position open and they cant exit it, it will move the price.... exactly what they are doing by ramping up cash like this... Personally I can't compete with a bank like that - still possible to make decent money, but to make huge money id say its becoming harder as the manipulation is getting bigger pushin a bigger divide between the abuser and everyone else. Also its worth noting Betfair T&C's state they will remove accounts of anyone manipulating the market.... guess that means it only applies if your not paying 60% PC and turning over 100's of Millions a year

[d70ejk]

Seeing what is potentially plenty of manipulation recently in the greyhounds markets, but because of lower liquidity and lower levels matched, it's not as obvious or big, but certainly plenty of outsiders are getting someone outbetting the market and pushing the price back in. But that's there prerogative I suppose.

Secondly, what on earth constitutes a manipulation that will force Betfair to remove your account? There's plenty of manipulation going on, to lesser or greater extents. While I would potentially applaud such a move, how on earth can they prove anything? And why would it be worth their while, since it's always going to be big players they're taking on?

This manipulation is one of the reasons, I prefer to play in any sport in-play, though that doesn't always work either.

[Caan Berry]

Of course.... just what it says in the terms. But its not regulated like other financial markets, your right why would they stop it... more commission after all. And of course they know who it is, im sure its a minority of people with the kind of liability required to do that on multiple runners in a horse race (above). A max-unmatched bets cap in the horse racing would be an idea.... Nobody needs to leave 100k plus liability sat about now do they, especially if they dont want it matching.....maybe its just getting under my skin a bit too much lately, who knows.

[d70ejk]

A max-unmatched bets cap in the horse racing would be an idea.... Nobody needs to leave 100k plus liability sat about now do they, especially if they dont want it matching.

I've previously hypothetically wondered about a percentage charge for cancelling unmatched bets, though unsure if it would ever be feasible. Hypothetical like I say anyway.

maybe its just getting under my skin a bit too much lately, who knows.

And this is the reason why with me. Been totally getting under my skin. Occasionally see some lower-scale but relatively worse manipulation on greyhounds or US horse racing markets, that can absolutely kill days of work for me if I'm not careful.

[jimmy123]

Everyone "manipulates" to a certain degree. If someone post large order and you knew the price was going up, you would just in front of someone. It is really disingenuous of you complain about other people's manipulation. I get jumped in front of all the time, probably by some small time scalper, so I have to change strategies. It's life. Either change strategies, or get eliminated.

[DarkHorse]

As a newbie, trading seems to be getting easier. Currently £195 in the red after 1.3k markets, so it is too early to say for sure.

Today's result using £8 stakes:




I suspect it will be some time before I experience the same problems as the more experienced traders. Interesting thread non the less.

[lcredd]

I haven't noticed a big change tbh. If I'm in the zone I do ok and if I'm not I get seriously hammered. Once people work out what the 'manipulators' are doing then they lose their edge. I wouldn't know how to manipulate the market for profit, even with a ridiculous bank. The more money you put in the market the more you stand to lose imho.

[skit]

It's life. Either change strategies, or get eliminated.

I would have to agree. The markets are constantly changing. Adapt to survive.

That said I stopped trading almost a year ago and started again not even a full week back and to be honest I already feel "up to speed". I'm not getting the profits I used to but I'm not far from it.

[bazbaz]

There is a very good reason that the markets have been harder during the last year+ that very few people seem to be aware of.

I don't have time to go into this now but I will write up in detail exactly why this is happening when I have time on Sunday and why honestly most people would be well advised not to waste their time and money with this game anymore.

[Mickey Pearce]

Here is an interesting piece from the highly respected boys over at BA.

"When Andrew Black and Ed Wray started Betfair back in 2000 they could not have dreamed what was about to happen, from zero to Billion in less than a decade, in fact, Betfair was so successful that it won the coveted Queens award for enterprise!

In the late 1990’s we had what I would like to call the betting revolution, it started when people like Victor Chandler took their business offshore, it gave a competitive hedge as 8% betting tax was being saved, the Betting exchange idea was also tax efficient, peers could bet against each other without having to pay anything to the state, furthermore,this could be done without moving away from the UK, in terms of being competitive the exchange went even further, Bookmaker margins where effectively eliminated, the only charge was a commission on winnings! Exchanges had found a concept that could scale rapidly!


Black and Wray realized that liquidity was the key to success, the platform they built was vastly different to the one flutter.com was using, at Betfair punters could take part or all of the bet, they could also request a bet to be matched, its main rival flutter.com had serious limitations, all bets offered had to be matched in full, this created a scenario where the layer were forced into splitting their offer, the result being a lot of small bets where being offered, it was messy to say the least.


The real breakthrough for Betfair was the day it joined forces with Flutter.com, database and liquidity increased overnight, the beast was gathering momentum, in the coming months they also managed to get the customers of Sporting options, a company that had failed badly and was about to default on its clients, Betfair received great publicity when it agreed to payback the customer funds of sporting options.


The betting exchange idea was nothing new, years earlier a company called SSP operating out of Luxembourg offered high rollers a fax/Tel service that allowed customers to call in odds and betting offers, the betting sheet was faxed out to clients every morning, the minimum bet was $500and commission was 3%, the concept ran its course until technology came to the fore, the ascending of the world wide web changed everything!


Betfair gathered pace despite the objections of the bookmakers, by 2005 it was in literal control of the horse racing market, on course bookmakers where simply tracking the prices and arbitraging back,Customers of betfair where literally controlling the S.P. mechanism.


It was all looking extremely rosy up to 2008, Betfair in its greed to satisfy shareholders introduced the dreaded ‘premium charge’,this was a further commission on winning punters, the whole concept of betfair was taken down with catastrophic publicity, Greg Woods a leading journalist commented ‘Betfair was started by punters for punters and has transformed the betting landscape in less than a decade. The news of premium charges, though,could spark the moment when it stopped being a plucky start up and turned into another faceless corporation.
The other exchanges saw their chance and parodied Betfair’s name, with ads like, ‘pay even more commission’ and ‘how’s that betfair’, in 2011 they upped the premium charge to a whopping 60%, for me the whole concept of their business died that very day!

More recently, in 2013 Betfair turned down a GBP 9.50a share takeover bid, the board threw its support behind CEO Brian Corcoran,In his recent CEO review Corcoran said; "The Exchange appeals greatly to many consumers but does not fully address the mass market, due to perceived and real complexity." In order to overcome this apparent shortfall in the betting exchange model, Corcoran has set his stall out around adding a sports-book to the Betfair portfolio. With the introduction of a sports-book the entire ethos of the Betfair brand has been undermined.



The wheel came off for Betfair when countries like Germany, Cyprus, Greece and Spain introduced restrictive legislation, this affected revenue by a whopping GBP 24 million, the future doesn’t look too bright either, more restrictions are under way, it was recently reported,online betting companies based in offshore havens to sidestep Britain's gambling taxes will be hit with a new levy that could cost the industry £300 million ($467million).Under rules published today, Britain will tax gambling according to where customers are based rather than where the online operator is registered,this means that offshore operators will pay the same 15% tax rate as domestic remote-betting companies. Betfair derives most of its business from the UK, its Malta operation will become a liability!


Conclusion


Betfair are lacking direction, they are nothing more than another Betting company, the opportunity to win has become more difficult since the introduction of the ‘premium charge’, the masses of customers that lose on a regular basis will continue to feed the beast, accept, opportunities are limited and it’s not about to improve!

For professional online sports-betting punters there is only one way to go, you simply need to bet with theAsians (Asian handicap bookies), get yourselves a decent broker account, you will be able to operate a single wallet account and have access to Bookmakers that don’t offer a direct service!

Betfair has had its day!! "

[ForeTwo]

Lack of fish, its why someone who makes significantly more from trading than software continues to sell the dream.

[custard]

Some of us were saying that "Betfair had had it's day" well over a year ago because we had seen how it had changed over the years. Betfair were free to do as they wished and I made it clear that resistance to their actions was futile. Sadly, this was misinterpreted as me being a person who did not care about traders. Truth is I am a realist and knowing that things were just going to get worse I accepted it. Perhaps I have lived too long in the company of Buddhists but I have certainly changed my attitude to life in general and my philosophy now is " if one cannot influence events, accept them and move on". Betfair was great and even I made money when it was in its prime. Now it's just a bookmaker with a few benefits the guys who sit in the shops all day don't have.

[helplessone]

There is a very good reason that the markets have been harder during the last year+ that very few people seem to be aware of.

I don't have time to go into this now but I will write up in detail exactly why this is happening when I have time on Sunday and why honestly most people would be well advised not to waste their time and money with this game anymore.

I am curious.. what I can say:

especially in the last 12 weeks and massivly in the last 4 weeks
on horse-markets
pre-match
on the outsiders (as normally I dont trade fav's or mid-fav's)

there is 1 very big player or bot that dominates the pre-match-horse-markets as he wants, in his own gusto. pushing up 10-15-20 ticks and then pushing down doesnt effect the total book because the outsider-prices have quasi no influence to the book, so its easy possible. for example he pushed a price from 220 with no problem to 750 in 1 immediate move with a lay-stake of 255. thats a bank of 255x750=191250. with a bank of 191250 he can do whatever he wants, how long he wants and at any price he wants.

I cant understand betfair: yes, commission 60% of that person counts. but how long? liquidity on the outsiders is 1/10 from months ago. also on the mid-fav's between 7/8 and 20 you can spot him easily. so: I am staying away. the theoretical end will be: no one trades the horse races any longer because there are no longer any fish, only 1 big shark..

[jimmy123]

you can't close down losers. Most people close down losers, so he just takes his position and moves it his way and against you. Then you close it down and he profits.