Trade To Hedge or Let Run.

[joneyyy1981]

hey peeps, im wondering do you guys always hedge your trade if you trade pre race, or do you sometimes let it run and risk the chance of not making a profit on that race.

i mean take today.

horse 1. £3.61 if it wins.
horse 2. £0.83 if it wins
horse 3. £0.97 if it wins.
the rest £0 (no loss)

hedge green £1.31.

my point is, if you have a good pre race trading, and have a nice amount you can win on a horse that has a chance do you let it ride or always hedge green?
:Boom

[bazbaz]

Hedge, then put your feet up and look forward to the next one.

[rockaren]

hedge and next please....... is what i am doing.....

[skit]

Since I don't really know the horses (names, jockeys, ratings, tips and all that crap) or their true "value" (and don't really care) I just hedge and next market.
Like I believe most traders do.

[flok]

i always hedge, only sometimes i keep more "green" on an outcome rather than another.

i noticed that if i didn't hedge and my result was 0, i was disappointed and i tried to earn more in the following tradings.
no need to say that this is a totally wrong psichologic approach... so, to hedge is surely better.

[Temujin]

The idea is to do one or the other, all the time.
The thing with BF is that it, on average, is extremely close to true odds. So even if a horse is 100/1 and you think no point having it running for me, it will still win 1 in 100 times.

If you let your trade run for you, in theory, you should be no worse off in the long run as if you were to hedge it, and you should also be no better off. Assuming BF is as close to true odds as you can get, your hedge is simply making your trading profits more steady, but long term no more profitable.
If you hedge a 100 profit on a 2.00 horse, you make 50 regardless. The horse has a 50/50 chance winning, so in the long run for every 2 races it will make you 50*2, or running for you will win 100 1/2 times, so after the 2 races you will still have 100.... Same with anything...

Personally, I hedge most of mine. I have a few strategies going. Some I will always hedge, some I will always just overlay to cover the commission, some I will just back or lay straight out. But for each strategy, I always do the same thing.

There was a time though where I was really bored with trading, so I decided that for a set period I would not hedge anything. Bad trades, I would have 1 horse running at a big red. Good trades, I was barracking it home. I got a few massive trades that missed out, a couple of big losses too, and a couple of big wins also. As it turned out my variance was about even over the week, so I made just as much as if I had hedged, and it spiced my week up and got me excited about trading again.

But basically, to avoid variance, you should always hedge. There is no argument to suggest otherwise, unless you are a keen form student backing your opinions on value.

[jimrobo]

always hedge for me, although if a horse is really short I will quite often leave more profit on the rest of the field than totally greenup. IE leave 10 pounds green on the fave, and use any extra to lay the fave so I might have 50+ on the rest of the field but 10 on the fave

[Leonthefixer]

I did a study a while back of my results and I was a lot better off hedging.

However the game has changed since then and we now have Premium Charge. So letting greens and reds run may now be the better option financially as it is likely to mean you don't pay the PC.

However!

I would not be able to take the roller-coaster mentally and it would impact on my ability to trade and over all would be negative.

Also oyu would need a very big back up bank for those times when your losses all seem to come in and your greens don't.

I would take the regular wins everytime.

[Knight Rider]

However the game has changed since then and we now have Premium Charge. So letting greens and reds run may now be the better option financially as it is likely to mean you don't pay the PC.

Not sure that would make a difference.....maths has a way of keeping things tidy and symmetrical......what it takes from one pot it will give to the other so you are no better than you started

[Leonthefixer]

Not sure that would make a difference.....maths has a way of keeping things tidy and symmetrical......what it takes from one pot it will give to the other so you are no better than you started

I think it would make a huge difference.

The argument is that you are no better off hedging than you are letting run.

But the one big difference is that the ups and downs of letting it run will generate a hell of a lot more commission and implied commission.

Which would mean total charges increase significantly and as such could easily remove the payment of Premium Charge meaning overall you are better of financially letting it run.

[scratchtrader]

Since I don't really know the horses (names, jockeys, ratings, tips and all that crap) or their true "value" (and don't really care) I just hedge and next market.
Like I believe most traders do.

Me too I only have the horses name displayed at the top of the ladder and anyway I know nothing about horses, so lock in the profit move on

[Knight Rider]

I think it would make a huge difference.

The argument is that you are no better off hedging than you are letting run.

But the one big difference is that the ups and downs of letting it run will generate a hell of a lot more commission and implied commission.

Which would mean total charges increase significantly and as such could easily remove the payment of Premium Charge meaning overall you are better of financially letting it run.

I see.....i think
















.....any chance of an example

[Cran]

But the one big difference is that the ups and downs of letting it run will generate a hell of a lot more commission and implied commission

And the downs will wipe out your bank...

[joneyyy1981]

And the downs will wipe out your bank...

how??????

.............

[Cran]

:Boom

Sorry, I didn't read the post properly...

just ignore me!