Backing 1-0 0-1 over 1.5 goals could work?

[AdyMareshal]

After a lot of reading about betfair football trading techniques I came with something of my own (maybe someone else already posted it).

Before KO, bet/back on 1-0, 0-1 and over 1.5 goals.

Basically the only time you lose is 0-0, but with a little of research I think I can eliminate most of these matches.

This match has 106% ROI which is higher than available surebets (but at least they are sure) and some of the matches even have around 110% ROI (I could find better matches with the bot)

Betfair bet: https://www.dropbox.com/s/uekba2zcvi...28.00.png?dl=0

Surebet calculator: https://www.dropbox.com/s/5uj71rxzet...28.17.png?dl=0


What do you think?

Left to do: from www.football-data.co.uk/data.php I'll download all the CSV files, transform them into sql database and extract advanced stats about teams and historical 0-0.

connect to betfair developer API and create a bot to get the best matches to bet on

[custard]

Basically the only time you lose is 0-0, but with a little of research I think I can eliminate most of these matches.


This is the bit which has appeared in almost every system put on this forum. The mathematics goes out of the window and the choice of games is critical. In reality the choice of games is always the most important factor regardless of any system.

The markets on Betfair are very efficient in the more popular, high volume, games and there is no worthwhile edge in backing on multiple markets. Opportunities may arise in low volume matches.

[luckytrader]

Dont want to rain on your parade but can give you a simple maths behind why this wont work, using your example and stakes above
£6.20 profit or £100 loss if 0-0
The amount of 0-0 games in the PL this season its 12% (IN fact all the top flight leagues in the world have between 10%-14% of matches ending 0-0)

Excluding commission you would have to make more than around £12 per game to break even long term

As custard has said game selection is the key but with careful game selection laying the draw outright may work just as well

[TraderPro]

Rule number 1.
All those things have already been thought about 100 times before.

[AdyMareshal]

The amount of 0-0 games in the PL this season its 12% (IN fact all the top flight leagues in the world have between 10%-14% of matches ending 0-0)

UK 2014-2015 (Premier, Championship, League 1, League 2, Conference)
- 2542 matches, 187 matches w/ 0-0 => 7.35%
- Premier League = 8.15% 0-0
- Championship = 8.1% 0-0

For this season Premier is at 11.42% and Championship at 9.27%

[AdyMareshal]

Rule number 1.
All those things have already been thought about 100 times before.

I think this is the purpose of "Newbies Corner" subforum...If this is too basic for you and boring, don't bother clicking "reply". Try "back" button.

[TraderPro]

I think this is the purpose of "Newbies Corner" subforum...If this is too basic for you and boring, don't bother clicking "reply". Try "back" button.

Sorry. There are money anyway if you are a total noob.
Look up matched betting, its 100% sure to do profit if you follow some easy steps. Its not gambling at Start with this page. http://matchedbettingblog.com/matche.../#.VaG5s_n7Fck

[luckytrader]

UK 2014-2015 (Premier, Championship, League 1, League 2, Conference)
- 2542 matches, 187 matches w/ 0-0 => 7.35%
- Premier League = 8.15% 0-0
- Championship = 8.1% 0-0

For this season Premier is at 11.42% and Championship at 9.27%

It took the info from http://www.soccerstats.com/latest.asp?league=england
currently showing seven 0-0 draws so far this season (10%)

[AdyMareshal]

Someone pointed that some bookmakers offer refunds on 0-0 matches. bet365 offers refund on the following markets:
- Half-Time/Full-Time - All Correct Score Markets - All Scorecast Markets

1-0 and 0-1 is on the correct score market. I need to rethink a bit the bets.

[doubleback]

Ah, the mysterious third bet syndrome a.k.a. Slicer’s Holy Grail!!!

[custard]

It's taken years for me to forget the "Holy Grail" nonsense and there you go resurrecting it

[AdyMareshal]

If a strategy works for someone...that's the holy grail for him.

My holy grail could be your fairy tail.

[custard]

If a strategy works for someone...that's the holy grail for him.

My holy grail could be your fairy tail.

Not a lot of chance of that. The guy who we are talking about always won because he had a 100% record of always doing the correct third bet. Or, so he said He was psychic and probably a bit daft.

There are a lot of crooks in the world of trading and we all need our heads screwed on properly. I can't blame you for trying to find something that works. I must have spent thousands of hours doing the same thing.

[AdyMareshal]

If I bet at betfair 0-1 and 1-0, can I cashout once the score 1-0 or 0-1? Or I have to let the booking run until the end of the match?

Because 1-0 odds are 12 and 0-1 odds are 8. So whatever happens I could cashout 38$ (100$ entire bet). But I am not sure it's possible.
I know cashout it's actually a lay bet for the previous back and (and viceversa)...

[AdyMareshal]

But what if I bet on 2-0 and 0-2 and cashout at 1-0 or 0-1?