Backing the over 2,5 at the 20 minute

[penny]

Hello guys, do you think backing sistematically the over 2,5 at the 20 minute of every soccer match when the result is 0-0, can make profits in the long term?
At the 20 minute the odd of the over 2,5 is 50% higher.

[custard]

Simple answer - no. Most 0 - 0 draws are also 0 - 0 after twenty minutes

[gun]

Penny, whilst it's difficult, nay impossible, to argue with Custard's logic, let's just dig a little deeper.

By backing at enhanced odds 20 minutes in you will definitely increase your returns on the winners. The problem is that a number of games will already have had the first goal, and are therefore no longer available to you. It would take a good deal of research to work it out properly but my estimate would be about a 10% loss taking commission into account.

If you are looking for a trade /bet that can be mechanically used in all situations to provide a profit, your search, I'm afraid, will be in vain! If anyone knows different I'm all ears

[WhyAlwaysMe]

I'll make the obvious point - every match is different. There is the 0-0 with hardly a chance and the 0-0 that is up and down with both sides going very close.

Another thing is the starting odds are all different so a blanket approach is hardly likely to work.

Personally I like the starting point it's just a few more filters may be required.

[Nathaniel1]

Backing Over/Under...anything

I'm looking at backing 'Under 2.5/3.5/4.5' After a goal, once the market starts to settle the price will move fairly swiftly allowing 10 point gains without to much fuss. Time it right and you're probably only looking at a 20 point loss if there happens to be another goal within the 5 mins or so it takes to get matched.

That's my experience to date anyway, if that changes I'll be sure to let you know.

[dlrec]

Won't it be safer to lay 'Over 2.5/3.5/4.5' After a goal?

My strat is to lay 0-0 after a goal and it's going good so far.

[Emkayracing]

My strat is to lay 0-0 after a goal and it's going good so far.

Please check this statement......

[custard]

Please check this statement......

Nothing wrong with it. I am going to lay Andy Murray in the US Open.

[Nathaniel1]

Won't it be safer to lay 'Over 2.5/3.5/4.5' After a goal?

No I like to trade favourites, generally better liquidity and the markets tend not to be quite so volatile.

My strat is to lay 0-0 after a goal and it's going good so far.

...What dreams are made of, if only we could

[inandout]

Just offer 1000 as soon as the markets reopen and you'll be fine. I used to do it several years ago then the competition, probably betfair, were beating me to get the first offer of 1000 in. I've noticed lately that in lesser leagues/games you can do it again though. There's always people, who've laid 0-0 earlier, who want to release their money even though the over 0.5 is available these days. This wont make you rich though

[Notty]

I'm looking at backing 'Under 2.5/3.5/4.5' After a goal, once the market starts to settle the price will move fairly swiftly allowing 10 point gains without to much fuss. Time it right and you're probably only looking at a 20 point loss if there happens to be another goal within the 5 mins or so it takes to get matched.

That's my experience to date anyway, if that changes I'll be sure to let you know.

Not really. After a goal the market go down as much as It would if there was no goal. The difference is the new market name (eg: it was Under 2,5 at 1,6 with 0 0 and now it´s Under 3,5 at 1,55 with 1-0). That´s an misconception some unexperienced traders do, thinking it steams more after a goal is scored.

The truth is, unless you have a really fast stream/pictures to get good prices (applies to any football market), you will only profit by getting value in what you do, and there´s nothing you can do every match in the same manner.

[Nathaniel1]

Not really. After a goal the market go down as much as It would if there was no goal. The difference is the new market name (eg: it was Under 2,5 at 1,6 with 0 0 and now it´s Under 3,5 at 1,55 with 1-0). That´s an misconception some unexperienced traders do, thinking it steams more after a goal is scored.

The truth is, unless you have a really fast stream/pictures to get good prices (applies to any football market), you will only profit by getting value in what you do, and there´s nothing you can do every match in the same manner.

Hi Notty, we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one : )

I have plenty of trading experience and I can assure anyone, that never has there been more uncertainty in a market than after a goal has been scored, a serve has been broken or a wicket taken...and value is most certainly in the eye of the beholder.

[Notty]

I get your point Nathan, but usually that indecison is about few pennies. YOu don´t usually see 1k for example at an "wrong" price.