Backing the over 2,5 at the 20 minute

[penny]

Hello guys, do you think backing sistematically the over 2,5 at the 20 minute of every soccer match when the result is 0-0, can make profits in the long term?
At the 20 minute the odd of the over 2,5 is 50% higher.

[custard]

Simple answer - no. Most 0 - 0 draws are also 0 - 0 after twenty minutes

[gun]

Penny, whilst it's difficult, nay impossible, to argue with Custard's logic, let's just dig a little deeper.

By backing at enhanced odds 20 minutes in you will definitely increase your returns on the winners. The problem is that a number of games will already have had the first goal, and are therefore no longer available to you. It would take a good deal of research to work it out properly but my estimate would be about a 10% loss taking commission into account.

If you are looking for a trade /bet that can be mechanically used in all situations to provide a profit, your search, I'm afraid, will be in vain! If anyone knows different I'm all ears

[WhyAlwaysMe]

I'll make the obvious point - every match is different. There is the 0-0 with hardly a chance and the 0-0 that is up and down with both sides going very close.

Another thing is the starting odds are all different so a blanket approach is hardly likely to work.

Personally I like the starting point it's just a few more filters may be required.

[Nathaniel1]

Backing Over/Under...anything

I'm looking at backing 'Under 2.5/3.5/4.5' After a goal, once the market starts to settle the price will move fairly swiftly allowing 10 point gains without to much fuss. Time it right and you're probably only looking at a 20 point loss if there happens to be another goal within the 5 mins or so it takes to get matched.

That's my experience to date anyway, if that changes I'll be sure to let you know.

[dlrec]

Won't it be safer to lay 'Over 2.5/3.5/4.5' After a goal?

My strat is to lay 0-0 after a goal and it's going good so far.

[Emkayracing]

My strat is to lay 0-0 after a goal and it's going good so far.

Please check this statement......

[custard]

Please check this statement......

Nothing wrong with it. I am going to lay Andy Murray in the US Open.

[Nathaniel1]

Won't it be safer to lay 'Over 2.5/3.5/4.5' After a goal?

No I like to trade favourites, generally better liquidity and the markets tend not to be quite so volatile.

My strat is to lay 0-0 after a goal and it's going good so far.

...What dreams are made of, if only we could

[inandout]

Just offer 1000 as soon as the markets reopen and you'll be fine. I used to do it several years ago then the competition, probably betfair, were beating me to get the first offer of 1000 in. I've noticed lately that in lesser leagues/games you can do it again though. There's always people, who've laid 0-0 earlier, who want to release their money even though the over 0.5 is available these days. This wont make you rich though

[Notty]

I'm looking at backing 'Under 2.5/3.5/4.5' After a goal, once the market starts to settle the price will move fairly swiftly allowing 10 point gains without to much fuss. Time it right and you're probably only looking at a 20 point loss if there happens to be another goal within the 5 mins or so it takes to get matched.

That's my experience to date anyway, if that changes I'll be sure to let you know.

Not really. After a goal the market go down as much as It would if there was no goal. The difference is the new market name (eg: it was Under 2,5 at 1,6 with 0 0 and now itīs Under 3,5 at 1,55 with 1-0). Thatīs an misconception some unexperienced traders do, thinking it steams more after a goal is scored.

The truth is, unless you have a really fast stream/pictures to get good prices (applies to any football market), you will only profit by getting value in what you do, and thereīs nothing you can do every match in the same manner.

[Nathaniel1]

Not really. After a goal the market go down as much as It would if there was no goal. The difference is the new market name (eg: it was Under 2,5 at 1,6 with 0 0 and now itīs Under 3,5 at 1,55 with 1-0). Thatīs an misconception some unexperienced traders do, thinking it steams more after a goal is scored.

The truth is, unless you have a really fast stream/pictures to get good prices (applies to any football market), you will only profit by getting value in what you do, and thereīs nothing you can do every match in the same manner.

Hi Notty, we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one : )

I have plenty of trading experience and I can assure anyone, that never has there been more uncertainty in a market than after a goal has been scored, a serve has been broken or a wicket taken...and value is most certainly in the eye of the beholder.

[Notty]

I get your point Nathan, but usually that indecison is about few pennies. YOu donīt usually see 1k for example at an "wrong" price.