The final Countdown

[PC0845]

OK, I have now decided that I know how to trade horses pre race.

I have loaded €200 and will make my FINAL attempt at this game from today on.

I have blown multiple banks stupidly but not through misreading prices, always through behaviour and in play stupidity and just general idiocy.


Wish me luck (again) and follow the journey.

http://plaw999.blogspot.ie/

[marra]

Good luck father

[shadowninja]

Can you guarantee you won't do the same mistakes? What's the point, otherwise?

[Morgans Choice]

Good luck P. If you can read market movements, you're at least one step ahead of me,

cheers, MC

[KOTBIIAJIbTO]

Good luck mate, I really like your idea of making a tenner a day. I always try to earn a hell of a lot, start playing risky and turn profits into losses. That's why I gave up trading a year ago and started betting IR.

[PC0845]

Can you guarantee you won't do the same mistakes? What's the point, otherwise?

Nope, I cannot, but if I do it will be the last time.

A great philosopher once said "If you spend all your time looking backwards, you will never go forward".

This great philosopher was Dot Cotton from Eastenders, nearly as wise as Jack Duckworth in Corrie, he once said something so deep I have spent ten years trying to figure it out, "There's nowt in them pants save radishes".

Seriously thought, I'm done with the stupidity, if I fail it will be because of lack of skill, not lack of discipline. I believe that all the idiotic behaviour stems from selfishness and ego, and any amount of introverted analysis wont change the facts.

Most things are really simple, the ability to complicate and obfuscate merely hides the fact that you don't understand the subject.

Curtis Faith spoke of experts and pseudo experts, I will evolve into an expert or I will stop.

[custard]

Just a suggestion - split your money into two lots. Allow £ 100 for pre-race and £ 100 for in-play betting. By in-play betting I mean backing and laying after the race starts. It's much more fun than pre-race trading and, as long as you are not greedy, can lead to profits. Look at the form, pick the horse you think will run well, back him and take profit if your judgment is right. £ 4 per race would appear to be about right for starters. Profit in the region of 50 p should be taken without falling into temptation and hoping for an outright winner.

Pre-race trading is for people who are comatose. If you are going to lose, you might as well have some fun in the process.

And, be fair to me, I didn't even mention graphs. Try not to use tick offset tools, etc. Think on your feet. You should be manually pacing your lay bet immediately after placing your back bet. Set limits for losses but don't use a stop loss. This is my way ( and I think a guy called Ron does it in a similar way ).

[PC0845]

Thanks Mr Custard, but IR is not something I will be doing deliberately for some time. I will also be swing trading and not scalping, unless I have decided to get out fast.

My setup is simple, betfair graph and the regular price bars.

I am actually a geeky fecker so I don't mind the pre race tedium as I will not enter until 5 minutes before the off and will try to exit 1 or 2 minutes before the off. I spent a maximum of 4 minutes on each race today with one exception so I'm only semi comatose.

I have to do this because if I go in early I get it wrong. The one race I entered early today cost me a tenner (5% of my bank is the max loss per race - this will change with the bank).

I will not use tick offsets, why cut short a winning trade ?

I will not use stop loss, I am a grown man so just press the ****ing button.


I have toyed with 3 major chart based "systems" that I call the following

1 Donchian :

If the price goes above or below the highest / lowest in a defined period of time then follow the trend until it retraces to the highest / lowest price in 1/2 that period of time.

Issues are that all the indicators are lagging so the value is gone by the time the chart tells you.

2 Intersecting moving averages : Have a fast and a slow moving average and place bet in direction of the trend when the two intersect.

Issues are that all the indicators are lagging so the value is gone by the time the chart tells you.


3 Bollinger Breakout

Use the charts to indicate when the back / lay price has broken the bollinger range indicating a change in direction.

Issues are that all the indicators are lagging so the value is gone by the time the chart tells you.


The one thing in common above is that by the time you get the signal the value or the price has already started to move.

We all know that prices gravitate towards certain levels, how many horses that trend in the 6.0 to 8.0 range end up @ 6.0 just before the off ? Same for 10.0 and 4.0 and 2.0 and 3.0.

Watch when 2 horses are in the 4.0 to 4.5 price range in the same race, just watch them go up and down up to 2 or 3 minutes before the off, be careful though as movements are trends rather than oscillations as you get nearer race time.

These are just small things I have noticed over time and not rocket science. The real peachy one though is the massive price moves that can happen on a heavily backed favourite EXACTLY 1 minute before the scheduled off time in many races. NB This has to be heavily favourite with a significant price gap between him and the others and he is almost invariably at the lowest level of the traded prices before the off.

For me the "new" charts are useless but one man's meat etc........

I now am trying to predict the move by the scientific means of how I feel it will go, that's it, me and my experience.

Actual entry points ARE critical, if I feel a horse is due to move from his current price of 4.0 but haven't a clue where, I will lay, why ?

Again, forget the rocket science if I am wrong by 2 ticks it is only half the size of the loss I would make if I backed him and he drifted by 2 ticks.

These are the simple things I am trying to use, I have another theory on the doggies that I will be using for micro stakes tonight if I can be arsed.

It must be simple, I am not saying it is easy as I have demonstrated many times before, but it must be simple. Back or lay, if you are right, take the profit.

If you are wrong take the loss, quickly.

Once again I have typed a missal when a simple thanks would have done, sorry.

[custard]

Once upon a time, pre-race trading was fairly easy. Even I could make a profit. Now, it's bloody hard work. It's no wonder people lose their discipline as staring at a screen for hours can be very stressful. In-running is physically easier.

Each to his own, and I, genuinely, wish you well !

[KOTBIIAJIbTO]

I prefer scalping on the place or main market, that's why I like using Tick offset 'cause it can place counter bets faster than me.

[dvwooly]

2 Intersecting moving averages : Have a fast and a slow moving average and place bet in direction of the trend when the two intersect.


i have looked into this and in real time it is hard to catch the intersection, it takes 5 seconds to see it on the 1sec refresh graph and by that time the move has been made.

have you tried it in real time?

I trade using charts i think it is the only way to make consistent problem.

[dvwooly]

OK, I have now decided that I know how to trade horses pre race.

I have loaded €200 and will make my FINAL attempt at this game from today on.

I have blown multiple banks stupidly but not through misreading prices, always through behaviour and in play stupidity and just general idiocy.


Wish me luck (again) and follow the journey.

http://plaw999.blogspot.ie/

how do i follow your blog?

[PC0845]

Dunno to be honest, I'll have a look at some widgets.

I have added a followers thingy but I'm not sure what it does ?

[KOTBIIAJIbTO]

I trade using charts i think it is the only way to make consistent problem.

I'm pretty sure Custard would agree with that

[custard]

I'm pretty sure Custard would agree with that

I saw it immediately and thought I had gained a convert