DVWooly Diary - trading horses pre race

[mixed trader]

you seem to be going from 1 idea to another,you need to stick to 1 idea, a few bad days or a few good days mean nothing its over the long term that counts.
I wish you luck.
cheers
terry.

[shadowninja]

im changing my mind quicker than the traffiic lights at the bottom of my road.

im going to run this in simulation and venture for the first time in my life in the place market!! I keep getting pipped at the post.

i have had 45 placed and 31 unplaced

wish me luck

The odds will reflect such an occurrence. Stick to Win market and see if you can sort out a better filter.

[dvwooly]

if i straight back all of them in the win market i end up at +7.51 points (30% strike rate) versus +7.67 points in the place market (59% strike rate)

The place bets went to +8 back to 0 then back to 8 over 4 days

15/12/2012 6.37
16/12/2012 -3.04
17/12/2012 1.54
18/12/2012 2.8


The win bets went to +8 back to +24 then straight back down to to 7.5 over 4 days. That seems a bit extreme.

15/12/2012 13.81
16/12/2012 5.96
17/12/2012 -7.3
18/12/2012 -4.96

I get the feeling 76 bets is a ridiculous sample so i will test this with small stakes £2 and hopefully it proves profitable.

If i simply filter out the place bets under 2 and with 6 or more runners the profit goes to +16 without a losing day.

15/12/2012 8.27
16/12/2012 1.01
17/12/2012 0.92
18/12/2012 6.33

16.53

So using a level stake 1% bank stake i make 16.53% but if i use 5% of my betting bank i make 115.04%. I could use 10% due to the small losing runs to really super charge it but that would be suicide .... 311.87% growth!

Doing this with the win market (no filters) i only end up with 5% profit using 5% stakes due to the long losing runs (34% growth with no filters ont he place market bets)

i think my sample is too small to get involved or excited or come up with a concrete plan. I will do this for 1000 selections and then come up with a plan but i wont put in any serious money until i have done the jumps and flat season as it may not work on the flat.

what do you reckon, dangerous basing filters on a small sample?

[custard]

I have been betting on horses for a very, very long time but I have never heard of filters. Is there some sort of subconscious filter which made me back Brigadier Gerard to beat Mill Reef ? Have I been living my life surrounded by filters without realising it ?

[shadowninja]

Continue to collect data. Do you have 100 bets?

I have been betting on horses for a very, very long time but I have never heard of filters. Is there some sort of subconscious filter which made me back Brigadier Gerard to beat Mill Reef ? Have I been living my life surrounded by filters without realising it ?

By filters he means reasons for not taking a bet eg not trading when there are jumps or not trading shorter races or not trading maiden markets.

[dvwooly]

i mean filtering out by odds. If i was to do odds on i would need a nice strike rate so i will remove them.

time will tell how it works, i think it wont but we will see

[Morgans Choice]

i mean filtering out by odds. If i was to do odds on i would need a nice strike rate so i will remove them.

time will tell how it works, i think it wont but we will see

Hi D,

this is the method I used to use to test all my betting methods. I found it quite elegant as it easily deterrmined either value price or that the blasted method didn't work based on my sample,

cheers, MC

[dvwooly]

im running the method in simulation mode on my bot today. One with no filters and one with the odds and number of runners filters (i prefer this one).

i'll do this for a month and see what comes of it, it will be interesting to see what happens.

I know the previous method will smash up double figure profits today as i have not put any money down ..... typical theme that always happens!

im off as people dont really want to hear about this crazy method on a trading forum .. will post results on 31 December (i wont be doing the madness of boxing day)

I'll post up results more frequently if people want to know how it gets on or i could just set up one of those blogger things to record the results.

[shadowninja]

Just post up. Nobody's really posting anything and it gets boring when it says there are no new posts.

PS How do you write a bot?

[shadowninja]

How I envision running a bot is:












How running my bot will be:

[dvwooly]

Just post up. Nobody's really posting anything and it gets boring when it says there are no new posts.

PS How do you write a bot?

i bought it off the shelf a few years back, you have probably heard of it.

It simply backs or lays horses or dogs and it is 99.99% reliable. It has all sorts of features built in but it can not be used for trading hence the reason why i bought AGT.

I can PM you the link if you are interested ....

[shadowninja]

Ohhh. I know the product you mean.

[Jimmymac]

im off as people dont really want to hear about this crazy method on a trading forum .. will post results on 31 December (i wont be doing the madness of boxing day)
Keep posting DV, it is interesting to some of us.

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Yes - I'm interested :Thumbs.

Straight backing is a perfectly valid trading strategy if you can build a winning model. What my issue is I don't understand (or is maybe beyond my understanding) how you can have an edge straight backing horses on Betfair what with their horrendous commission rates? Also we know Betfair is a very efficient market.

Isn't the idea of gambling/trading to make selections that have a bigger percentage chance of winning than the price offered? If a horse is 1.50 and you rate it's chances as 80%, wouldn't you back? But then if you are backing at 1.50 on BF you are really backing at 1.42 which is a different thing altogether.

Betfair is poor value for straight backing at any odds under about 7.0 unless you are looking at big drifters, which can provide value.

[dvwooly]

i dont bl00dy beleive it ....... come back from the doctors to see

5.1 winner
5.0 winner
3.6 winner
loser
loser

and its the day i switch to the place betting!!!

sometimes i wonder why i put myself through this pain