2012/13 Diary

[jamiedavies02]

Good day,

I've spent the summer updating and tweaking my infamous "True Odds" spreadsheet and re-reading some old notes and it has wetted my appetite for the new football season which starts at the weekend. With that being said, I have deposited £100 into my Betfair account and I shall be purchasing GT on Friday. Hopefully I'll continue this throughout the season and maybe even win a few quid along the way.

I'd like to think I've learned a few lessons in the past so have set myself a few ground rules..

1. No trading on non live football through boredom, I'll be sticking to the live matches. This brings me to my next point..

2. Create a weekly log of live sporting events that I can trade

3. This next point isn't strictly trading but on day's when I'm working/ unable to trade I will be using my "True Odds" sheet and picking out a lay or two for the days football

4. I will only trade football, tennis, cricket and occasionally boxing and specials.

5. Keep an eye open for any opportunities for ante-post trading

I've also set a few rules financially...

1. Do not deposit any more money (except if i need to take advantage of any free bet offers)

2. Initial liability for trades will be 10%, maximum exposure at any one time will 20% and a stop loss of 2.5%

3. Any non trade Lay bets will be to lose 5%

4. My first big target is to reach £250

This may all seem a bit car crash and destined for failure but I'm going to stick at this and see how it goes. Should I start to make a decent profit I will look into adjusting the %s and protect my bank abit more, but as my start bank is only £100 I feel I need to be aggressive.

Check back Friday for the first trade - at the moment I have plans so it will likely be a Lay bet should there be any value. I am looking to trade atleast Sundays games and hopefully Saturdays too.

[milivoje]

goood luck!!

[jamiedavies02]

Trade #1 & 2

Cardiff v Huddersfield

As mentioned earlier, this will be a lay bet rather than a trade. After throwing some numbers into my Pullein Match Sheet, I've come up with my own odds. After consulting Betfair there is no money in the corners or booking markets, so I've offered up some prices to a £5ish liability in both markets. No bets have been matched as yet, in an ideal world all 3 selections in both markets will be matched giving me an all green book, however should only 1 or 2 selections be matched then i am happy that the odds are in my favour.

[doubleback]

3. This next point isn't strictly trading but on day's when I'm working/ unable to trade I will be using my "True Odds" sheet and picking out a lay or two for the days football

Sounds interesting! What is your sheet based on?

[custard]

You do not say what odds you are laying at. Presumably you are looking for three lays all at lower prices than those currently on offer ? If so, do you really think that all three prices will move in your favour in the next twenty four hours or so ? Usually, if one price goes down the others go up and you would need to be very lucky if all went your way. If you have been ambitious in setting your bets so as to gain more than a few ticks on each, there is correspondingly less likelihood of them all being matched.

The current lay prices are 1.89, 5.1 and 3.75 for home, draw and away. What will you do when the game kicks off ?


Is it really worth the effort of keeping your computer switched on for the next twenty four hours when you could adopt the same strategy in-play ?

[jamiedavies02]

You do not say what odds you are laying at. Presumably you are looking for three lays all at lower prices than those currently on offer ? If so, do you really think that all three prices will move in your favour in the next twenty four hours or so ? Usually, if one price goes down the others go up and you would need to be very lucky if all went your way. If you have been ambitious in setting your bets so as to gain more than a few ticks on each, there is correspondingly less likelihood of them all being matched.

The current lay prices are 1.89, 5.1 and 3.75 for home, draw and away. What will you do when the game kicks off ?


Is it really worth the effort of keeping your computer switched on for the next twenty four hours when you could adopt the same strategy in-play ?

The only money in the market (corners/ bookings) is mine (or atleast when I placed my bets it was)

Usually when placing this type of bet i would just lay 1 selection but the option was there to make the market if you like. The actual trading will be in-play as opposed to pre match

[jamiedavies02]

Sounds interesting! What is your sheet based on?

The sheet is based on Racing Post Tipster Kevin Pulliens theorems outlined in his book "A Guide To Betting On Football"

[custard]

I've taken you "cards" bets. Helguson and Bellamy should be good for a card each and, hopefully, somebody else will oblige too.

[jamiedavies02]

Ive adjusted my cards market, cancelled a few pence unmatched on between and overs and had to go a tad bigger on unders, hopefully that'll get matched for small green.

Also it looks like my corners lays won't be getting matched, they've been cancelled

[custard]

The current lay prices for the cards are 2.98, 3.85 and 6.4. None of these has a " snowball in hell's chance" of being matched.

[jamiedavies02]

Alls im waiting for is somebody to back Unders at around evens, my middle and overs have been matched (bar a few pence which I've cancelled)

[custard]

Alls im waiting for is somebody to back Unders at around evens, my middle and overs have been matched (bar a few pence which I've cancelled)

Yes, I know they've been matched because I am the kiddy who actually matched them ! Assuming that you find somebody who is daft enough to take the third bet, how much will you win ? Is it worth the effort and you keeping your computer switched on for twenty four hours ?

I have no intention of placing a substantial bet on tonight's game, never had, and will be waiting for the season to settle down a bit before I cut loose. Having said that, if somebody offers silly prices, I'll take them.

[jamiedavies02]

If it wasn't for this thread Im not watching the market waiting for bets to be matched - Im checking to reply in here.

Should the last bet get matched I'll make a couple of quid, if it doesn't then im happy that the prices of my other 2 lays are in my favour, you may think there silly prices, I think there to short, thats the beauty of it, its just one person's opinion against another.

[custard]

I don't care about one game and what happens tonight carries little weight. There are 190 games played in a Premier League season and the number of yellows issued has been amazingly constant at 455. ( I am ignoring the reds .)

You are now waiting for a third bet to be matched. If it isn't, and I don't think it will be, all you have done is gambled, not traded. I have gambled by taking your bets. It's an impossibility for me to trade as lay prices are ludicrously high, and the market is suspended when it goes in play.

So, I believe there is an imbalance in your prices which will prevent you from trading. We have a straight gamble between us. You stand to lose more from your gamble than you can hope to win by your trade, if it occurs.

[custard]

Above combinations = 190 should be doubled because each fixture between teams is played home and away, so total games = 380.