Greyhound trading summary

This article is primarily a beginners guide to trading Greyhounds on Betfair or Betdaq.

Although I do not trade greyhounds much these days as I spend most of my time trading on UK & Irish horse racing, I did trade them a lot for a number of years, so I hope this article will help you on your trading journey.

British Greyhound races are probably the most often occurring commodity on Betfair and Betdaq. They start every day at 11:00 and they finish usually circa 23:00 in the evening. Greyhound markets are a great tool to learn principles of Betfair and Betdaq trading. Greyhound markets can be very volatile and very chaotic in terms of price changes, but this can be used to your advantage.

Many people will not agree with me, but for me greyhounds were the first step to learn trading on Betfair or Betdaq. There is a huge number of races every day and thanks to a much smaller competition on these markets it is much easier to start earn money here compared to Horse racing for example.

If a man sees that he can earn money on Betfair or Betdaq, it will support his mind and psyche much more than doing something for 6 months and losing money in the long term. That is my opinion, but of course you can start trading on horses and will work harder, then that’s great, too!

Due to usually low liquidity, there is no a massive earning potential in Greyhounds. In a concrete numbers, I think that it is very easy possible to earn something like 1000 € a month – I did It myself in the past part time whilst I was a professional volleyball player. I am acquainted with people who are able to earn about 2000 €. 

Anyway, please do not build limits in your mind based on my numbers; they are from my experience, so yours can be much better! { Or worse. } Feel free to discuss your own personal achievements in the comments.

Liquidity

The amount of money usually matched in greyhound markets is in the range of tens of thousands pounds. Usually it can be somewhere between 10 000 – 20 000€ per race. It depends on the type of race, time of the race and a willingness of people to bet. The upper limit in money matched is usually near to 40 000€, very low liquid races can be around 5 000€ per race.

You should always adapt your stakes to the liquidity and also your trading style – a low liquid market is full of gaps and it is very easy to manipulate. From time to time, there are televised races that bring much more liquidity in to the markets. You can check the dates for these bigger races on this address - http://www.gbgb.org.uk/CategoryOneRaces.aspx

When trading Greyhounds, the majority of the money usually arrives a few minutes before the official start time of the race. So you can usually trade for 2 minutes before the start time and then you have to wait for the next race. My personal rule is to do not trade until there is at least 1000 € matched in the market. Then I start placing bets.

Using Gaps

Thanks to low liquidity in greyhound markets, there are usually gaps, so you can usually use a market making strategy. There is a very good post on the forum about this - http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2012.

The advantage of using a market making strategy on greyhounds is that you can often be the first in the queue. So if the market “jumps” up and down thanks to a big bet being matched, your money will be served first. “Jumping” as I call it in greyhound markets is quite a common phenomenon, because if there is somebody wanting to match a bigger bet, he usually must put his money on disadvantageous price to get it matched. And because this money is placed at a disadvantageous price for them, it means it is advantageous for the opposite side. { AKA You! }

The market maker will buy his money quickly and the price will jump again into the more equilibrium price range. And when this happens, we can take the profit just for “filling the gaps”. Of course I do not mean filling of everything that is empty, but if you have some reasonable speculative positions in the market, they can create a nice bonus from time to time.

Here is a video of a Czech trader who is filling the gaps nicely:

Weight of money - WOM

Weight of money on Greyhound markets is still very powerful indicator. I can say that the lower liquidity the market is, the bigger role of WOM in the market. And it does not matter if the big money affecting the WOM is spoof or real money. When I was started trading greyhounds, there were not many traders. Now, when a bigger stake is put in the market, many traders will try to move with this stake. It is like a snowball – all those traders are trying to jump in front.  In the past, it was calmer, you could just click under/above bigger amount of money and wait for the price to move to take a profit. Nowadays you need to react quickly, although this still does not guarantee you will get matched at that price. Conclusion – WOM is still a good indicator, but you need to react quickly.

Overround

It is clear that the prices can’t rise or fall indefinitely, because otherwise there would be arbitrages in the market. So a rising price on one greyhound will usually mean falling price(s)on other greyhound(s). Using the overround percentage, you can see the level of competitiveness & subsequently idle space of the prices in the market.

For example if there is overround 150%, it does not mean automatically, that the growth of price on one greyhound means decline on the other greyhound. If there is 150% overround, prices on all greyhounds can grow, until they reach something near to 100% equilibrium. After that, the increase of 1 price will cause a decrease on at least 1 other. If there are two runners in the market and overround is near to 100%, the price growth of one runner automatically causes a price decrease on the second runner. On the other hand, in a race with many runners, the resulting decline could be on one or more runners. { NB This applies to all sports and not just Greyhounds. }

S/R levels on greyhound markets

Support and resistance levels do not play as big of a role in greyhound markets as they do in UK horse racing. This is because of the low liquidity, which means much higher volatility. Anyway, there are a number of very important levels in these markets:

• Whole numbers, especially those where the tick increment size changes – 6.0, 4.0, 3.0 and 2.0

If there is high liquidity, S/R levels can change to different (usually round) numbers, such as 2.50, 3.50, etc. I work with these levels like this – if the market goes from 5.3 to 4.0, there is a big probability that the market trend will slow down, stop or reverse on this number. The reason is, that Backers with an open position will want to close their positions with Lay bets and also Layers will not want to let go the price lower. Sometimes the WOM can look like the price will go down more, but trust me – they are waiting there. And if I am a happy backer, who has backed at a lucrative price, I try to exit on these levels – partially or completely, it depends on situation.

On the other hand, when the S/R level is broken, it is like a dam breaking. People who did not expect this are now in a losing position and clambering to get out, which in turn pushes the market further.  You can see it in the below WOM video. So in summary you can trade either of these situations or a combination of the two.

Price Bands

Price bands are important places in the market where the most money is traded within a price range. It is also a common situation with support and resistance levels in the market. You can see which range of prices was the most traded etc.

LTA – Last Traded Amount

The size of last traded amount can have a significant impact on price development – either as a starting point for a trend or as a signal of the end of the trend. In general, there are two types of traders in the market, those with an opened position and those without. If the LTA starts the trend, traders with opened position who are on the bad side of the trend want to close their position, thus making the trend stronger. Additionally, some traders without a position will start placing their orders because they want to profit on this movement. Below is a video that highlights this. { NB the video is from a horse racing market, but the same applies on Greyhounds. } Often a big LTA accompanied with a gap that causes a situation I call “jumping”:

And if the LTA signals the end of the trend, the situation is  the opposite – those with open position are seeing the price will not move anymore and so they start to close their positions. Those without positions also try to enter the market to catch the advantageous price. LTA in the market very often means something in the market; you just need to learn the markets to take advantage.

Trends

On greyhound markets you can choose how much you will use trends. If you like to close your positions as fast as possible (scalping), bigger moves will be not important for you. But it does not mean you can’t do a swing trade on these markets. Let your profits run and cut your losses quickly is the Traders Mantra, so if you can earn money by scalping, you can move to the next level by learning how to predict longer term price movements.

All together

Finally I will show you a video using a combination of the concepts explained above:

The video is an experiment to see if I can trade all the greyhounds once. There is no science in it – when you look closely, I just use market making and WOM. I place bets on the not currently traded prices and if these bets get matched, I have a bonus. I also use bigger stakes in the market as my back cover – on the Lay side I place my bets above the bigger stake, and on the Back side I place bets below the bigger stake. And if I see a loss, I cut it quickly. Maybe the video looks chaotic and fast to you, watch it a few times and you should understand it.

Losses

Once you will learn how to accept a loss, you will start to earn.  If you don’t learn to cut your losses, this will inevitably result in greater losses.

• Do not hope for a change in price direction. If the loss exceeds your pre-defined limit, accept it immediately.
• Try to keep calm. Do not let your emotions control your trading.
• Always close your trades before the countdown clock reaches the zero. After that you are risking a suspended market with no possibility to close your positions.

It is time to bring this article to a close.  I hope I covered the basics for you, but if you feel there is anything missing, please feel free to please leave a message in the comments.

Good luck!