Getting Value Every Time - Betfair Trading
We all know what value means as software users on the betting exchanges – profit.
Value: “to consider someone or something of high importance, a high opinion“
Finding value within the markets isn’t always that easy, but adjusting how you play can increase the odds.
February markets
Trading the racing markets pre-race has it’s high’s and low’s throughout the year. January, February and October are usually the weaker months in terms of money flowing through the prices. That alone can lead to frustration, particularly after coming out of a busy period like the tail end of December.
It took me too long to realise, but the key to success in these months in particular is to adjust how you execute your trades within the markets. Outside of the weaker months it’s a good idea too, although the markets are likely to be a little more forgiving.
Getting value
While it’s tempting to dive on to a potential move, clicking like a madman at the available price doesn’t bring a lot of value, does it?
It’s easily done, as nobody wants to miss out on the start of that killer-move. But how often do you take a price and find nothing happened straight away? Obviously it’s easier to remember when the complete opposite, that’s just human nature, but each time you ‘take’ a price a tick is given away.
When you think to the other end of our hypothetical trade too, did you take a price or offer one? It’s quite surprising how many don’t give this enough thought…
When you take a price either end of a trade, you gave away two ticks (assuming you would have been matched offering instead). How much profit was that over a day, a week or even a month?
Trading inside the final 10 minutes is where the vast majority of money is matched. Offering a price, and getting matched isn’t that difficult in most cases. That’s just one way of getting a little extra value.
Check out the chart below:
The black line to the left indicates the market prior to the final 10 minutes. Looking at the matched volume bars it's easy to see where the best chance of getting matched is.
The price was clearly coming in on this runner. Higgn sight is a great thing, but the most valuable points to get in would have been shortly after the trend was 'tested'. The green line showing the most interesting points for entry.
Unfortunately many get over-excited as previously mentioned and start placing bets below the black line, doing the completel opposite (hence they lose out). All of this has a negative impact on how you feel in the momement too, which can make matters worse.
A good method to use in these situations is to offer an opening position as close to the green line as possible after support is confirmed (meaning the price is to continue trending). And then lay off a portion of your initial stake, usually 30-50% is ideal. This will extend your 'green zone' ensuring you can only lose if the trend then does a full reversal, limiting your risk in the process.
If the price contiunes to steam then you are comfortable (and in a better state of mind) to allow the contraction in price to continue, letting your profits run.
Obviously it wont work out like this every time, but at least you'll be in a position to scratch your trade for no loss or at least a very small loss. It's great to be in this kind of position while trading as it also allows you the patience to wait when offering a bet instead of taking a price.
Biggest value on offer
The easiest way to ensure you get value every time applies to everyone, regardless of sport, bankroll or expereince;
Choosing when to trade - if you're not confident, don't take part.
This seems to be the most ignored advice too unfortunately. One of the best things about trading is being able to choose when you play, where alse can you play a game (for money) where you don't have to get involved until you have an unfair advantage?
Losing money is easy. Create some value for yourself, only offer prices at points deemed to be of good value, and choose not to get involved otherwise.
