100 € - 500 € November Challenge

[zrg]

I will start a 100 € - 500 € challenge for November in the pre-race markets. My method is a trend following one based on some trends I noticed are repeating when similar market conditions occur.
My entry point is when I see a swing opportunity 10 minutes before the off and I open only one trade per race.
I have three exit points: 1. ten seconds to be sure it won't go in-play. 2. if it touch the 6 ticks stop-loss. 3. when a very big swing take place and I'm convinced the price will revert to it's previous position.
The stake type I use is book profit, 0.3 € for every tick form the current bank and it will be proportionally increased. Looking at the previous weeks results, my average profit is between 3-5 ticks/race.
Yesterday I traded 17 races and my profit was 6.16 €. It's not much but my bank is safe all the time. I will try to post here my daily progress.

[zrg]

The first day I traded 11 races with a 4.53 € profit. I think 5% per day it's a good enough goal.The only downside is when my stake is at 2.98 or 5.8 and it drifts, the 0.3 profit / tick doubles. I will have to be careful at the increments changes. Do you use a better staking method?

[dvwooly]

hi zerg

good profits.

do you prefer to back or lay first. i used to find myself being habitual layer but now i prefer to back first

[zrg]

I usually lay first the horses with odds below 15 and avoid the favorite because it's price is very manipulated. In the past I backed first and the results were the same, using a different selection method.

[dvwooly]

the reason i switched was that with a smaller bank it is possible to leverage the amounts more by backing first. After my failure trading last week i have decided to look into the different methods of trading.

Have you ever thought about dutching 3 or 4 horses and trading them, i have never tried but have thought about it and wondering if anyone had any experiences of it.

[zrg]

The reason I backed first was that my method was to find closely matched trades between Betfair and BOG Bookmakers. When the horse drifted my hedge was made with the BOG price. Half of my selection were steamers and for more than two months I made a nice profit from a 2k € bank. When I begun to withdraw from the Bookmakers, they all closed my accounts.
My current Betfair method can be scaled up to 50 €-100 € profit per day without affecting the odds too much. This would be enough for me, these days I trade only part time, as I returned to my old job. What I want to see is that I am able to follow the rules. If it's not fitted for me I'm sure that my bank will be fast depleted by my stupid mistakes.
I lay first because I'm more relaxed like this and the pattern is in that direction. The liability is not a problem, I could deposit 5 times more for bigger profits. Until I don't find consistency with this method, there's no point to take a bigger risk.
The dutch method you mention can work when two - three horses are strong in the market, the drift on one will affect the others, but also the loss could be two times bigger.
If you found an edge, I think you should continue for a longer period of time.

[zrg]

18 races traded and a bigger profit for the day. My bank is now 125.35 €.

[zrg]

Saturdays are great for my methods of trading. The prices aren't that much manipulated, maybe because of the increased liquidity. Today's profit is 26.63 € in 21 races.

[milivoje]

really nice results

[booblet]

Awesome, zrg, keep it up C:

I'm a keen reader of your blog and really dig your honest and direct writing style. Its refreshing. All the best with your challenge!

[flok]

i agree, saturday is the best day of the week for me too (if i dont tilt after few losses, as i usually do)

[lilek]

No more tennis trading?

[zrg]

hi Lilek! I have two Betfair accounts and on this one my trades are only on horses. My tennis trading is now on idle, it seems I don't have the patience to follow each point of a game and take the best decision. I get very bored after a while. Looking at my results my best performance is on horses and I try to increase it with a more structured approach.

[zrg]

Today I increased my stakes to 0.5/tick and only one losing race.

[zrg]

Well, after my early success and satisfied with the result, I became very confident and wanted to trade one more race and the inevitable happened. Some very rookie decisions to lay with odds higher than 10. The result: blew almost my whole bank. 12 € left. The moment I ignored my strategy the disaster happened.
To begin I had a 2.8 loss. Before I anticipated at least 5 big swings so a losing one was normal. I accepted it before very easy. But I wanted to end the day with a win and I let it ride. 10 seconds before the off and the price still continued the steam, and my loss became of over 9 euros on a horse with 3.2 odds. I said to myself to close the trade but I didn't close the market, worse I layed a horse with 15.0 for 6 to reduce my loss to 4 €. Exactly these two horses were almost photo finish (Future Dominion, the horse I traded pre-race was 1.1 on-play) and of course the one I layed at 15.0 had won (Elegant Olive in 17:30 Huntington). I haven't watched a race for several weeks but this one I had to watch. The tilt moment that Flok mentioned to chase the loss continued and eventually I ended laying US horses and blew all my bank.
My 100 € were used to see if I can stick to this method and the moment I ignored it, all collapsed. I'll take two days off, go to work, at the gym and come back with new energy. It ain't over yet. Still 25 days left this month. I'm curios how many hits like this I'll take in the future until I can take the full responsibility.