Premiership 12/13

[doubleback]

Without further ado, I hereby unveil model V ...

The ongoing battle between the scientists and the 'others' is reaching new heights,
with conspiracy theorists citing a plot where scientists are planning to take over the world ...

I would like to say, at this point, that my model has been checked and verified by an academic who has had an equation named after him.
This doesn't constitute a conspiracy and I hope that no prejudice or resentment begins to build against the scientific way of modelling football ...




... and now, the conclusion of V ...

[doubleback]

I will have three banks of a £1000 each ...

• Match Odds
• Over/Unders
• Correct Score

The bank will be divided by how many games that are simultaneously being played, i.e, seven games are being played today, so I will divide £1000 by seven ... Then, to add a bit of controversionalism, I will use 1/4 fractional Kelly (did he just say that?) staking ...

I will take the prices anywhere upto 48hrs before kick off and I will have a play/think about whether to use Pinny or Betfair's prices, also if I should round my prices to Betfair increments ...

Match Odds;

Bank: £1000/7 = £142.85

Reading - £13.33 @ 2.44
West Brom - £5.93 @ 4.3
West Ham - £13.89 @ 2.34
Newcastle - £5.39 @ 2.66

Over/Unders;

Bank: £1000/7 = £142.85

Fulham - Over 2.5 -£14.57 @ 1.96
QPR - Over 2.5 - £13.29 @ 2.18
Reading - Over 2.5 - £8.61 @ 2.24

Correct Score;

Bank: £1000/7 = £142.85

Reading V Stoke - 2-0 -£1 @ 13.5
West Ham V Aston Villa - 2-0 - £1.17 @ 12.5

[doubleback]

Match Odds;

Bank: £1000/7 = £142.85

Reading - £13.33 @ 2.44 -£13.33
West Brom - £5.93 @ 4.3 £19.57
West Ham - £13.89 @ 2.34 £18.61
Newcastle - £5.39 @ 2.66 £8.95

New Bank ... £1033.80

Over/Unders;

Bank: £1000/7 = £142.85

Fulham - Over 2.5 -£14.57 @ 1.96 £13.00
QPR - Over 2.5 - £13.29 @ 2.18 £15.68
Reading - Over 2.5 - £8.61 @ 2.24 -£8.61

New Bank ... £1026.80

Correct Score;

Bank: £1000/7 = £142.85

Reading V Stoke - 2-0 -£1 @ 13.5 -£1
West Ham V Aston Villa - 2-0 - £1.17 @ 12.5 -£1.17

New Bank ... £997.83

Total Profit ... £52.69

[doubleback]

Match Odds;

Bank ... £1033.80/7 (I will elaborate on this in another post) = £147.69

Wigan - £5.91 @ 6

Over/Unders;

Bank ... £1026.80/7 = £146.69

Wigan/Chelsea - Over 2.5 - £11.08 @ 1.95

[westerner]

A good start Doubleback, well done, but shouldn't your new bank for the over/unders be £1020.07 not £1026.80? And total profit should be £51.70 instead of £52.69?

Also, not sure how you reach some of your profit figures e.g. how does £14.57 @ 1.96 = £13.00? Shouldn't this be £13.99? Or have you taken off commission?

[doubleback]

Feck me, cheers for pointing that out ...

It was a total school boy error, I just had a look at my workings and they were correct, for some reason I just put them on here wrong.

I think I get slightly dyslexic after too much screen time ...

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Why are you not backing Southampton then DB?

[doubleback]

Man City 1 - 2 Southampton

Twenty minutes of the game left ...

[valve]

"thanks" to API malfunction I was for a while in + 1000e profit, unfortunately after my safety closing bet reducing my loss :Naughty

[doubleback]

Why are you not backing Southampton then DB?

I thought Man City would win ... I was tempted, very tempted in fact. I was thinking that a trade on Southampton would be good, but didn't want to muddy the waters ... One thing that I take from that game is to be more trusting (slightly) of my model, when Southampton went in front I nearly choked on my custard cream! The prices were way out and, after all, exploiting those misaligned prices is the goal ...

Putting things in order, I will get the stakes, banks etc, in order after my cock-up ...

Match Odds;

Bank: £1000/7 = £142.85

Reading - £13.33 @ 2.44 -£13.33
West Brom - £5.93 @ 4.3 £19.57
West Ham - £13.89 @ 2.34 £18.61
Newcastle - £5.39 @ 2.66 £8.95

New Bank ... £1033.80

Over/Unders;

Bank: £1000/7 = £142.85

Fulham V Norwich - Over 2.5 -£14.57 @ 1.96 £13.99
QPR V Swansea - Over 2.5 - £13.29 @ 2.18 £15.68
Reading V Stoke - Over 2.5 - £8.61 @ 2.24 -£8.61

New Bank ... £1021.06

Correct Score;

Bank: £1000/7 = £142.85

Reading V Stoke - 2-0 -£1 @ 13.5 -£1
West Ham V Aston Villa - 2-0 - £1.17 @ 12.5 -£1.17

New Bank ... £997.83

Total Profit ... £52.69



Then we correct the stakes for the Wigan V Chelsea game ...

Match Odds;

Bank ... £1033.80/7 = £147.69

Wigan - £5.91 @ 6 -£5.91

New Bank ... £1027.89

Over/Unders;

Bank ... £1021.06/7 = £145.86

Wigan/Chelsea - Over 2.5 - £11.01 @ 1.95 -£11.01

New Bank ... £1010.05

Total Profit ... -£16.92

[doubleback]

Match Odds;

Bank £1033.80/7 = £147.68

Everton - £5.91 @ 4.2
Reading - £9.16 @ 14.5

Over/Unders;

Bank ... £1021.06/7 = £145.86

Everton V Man Ure - Over 2.5 - £18.96 @ 2

Correct Score;

Bank ... £997.83/7 = £142.55

Everton V Man Ure - 2-2 - £0.54 @ 18
Chelsea V Reading - 1-1 - £1.17 @ 12.5

* P.S. No Sporting Index numbers on the Chelsea game as of yet, I may update ...

[rokitofrito]

I'm confused. Newbie here.

[Firkinelle]

I'm confused. Newbie here.

If you read this thread, all should become clear,

http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=8898

[doubleback]

... 36 minutes into the game ...

Chelsea 2.32
Reading 3.8
Draw 3.25

Chelsea 1-2 Reading

[rokitofrito]

... 36 minutes into the game ...

Chelsea 2.32
Reading 3.8
Draw 3.25

Chelsea 1-2 Reading

4-2 right? Chelsea