my nightmare

[flok]

hi guys, i thought i must share the mess i've done this week, since i really deserve public humiliation as punishment for being such a... i dont even find the right word.

here it is: i started a new in-play way of trading in 2012. it seemed it was working very well, because from january to mid-march i doubled my bank.
so, last week, i thought "double bank, double stake= double profit". right?
absolutely not, because in the last 3 days i've "burned" half of my bank, and i'm back to where i was at the beginning of the year.
it was kind of a nightmare, caused by a mix of my proverbial stubborness, my inability to take a big loss and shut up, my tendency to "tilt" when i'm losing big, and EXTREME bad luck.

so, for 3 days in a row (i swear, 3 DAYS IN A ROW), every horse i backed is fallen on a obstacle and every one i layed went on to win. i've lost lays @5 and lost backs at @1,3, really, was something that i'd never had imagined... just for curiosity i controlled the number of attempted tradings and the corresponding odds, and the probability to lose them all (or almost all) is kind of 1/10.000.

also, i was already planning to use a part of the profits to organize a big "on the road" journey by motorcycle to southern italy and greece on june:
1 month of exploration without scheduled itinerary, in total freedom.
after the "tragedy" i have barely the bank to keep trading (and i'm not even sure i want to) so i dont know anymore if i can make this journey, that i was dreaming since some time.

so now i'm completely discouraged and thinking to quit, every time i think i worked 3 months for NOTHING i cant stop thinking that, if the time i dedicated to trading, i had dedicated it to something else, i'd have earned much more, and avoided the stress of the last 3 days, that i thought has shortened the life of my cardiac system of 3-4 years.
i dont even remember how the hell i managed to double my bank in 2 months and a half. i cant be just lucky for 2 months in a row, right?
so i had an edge... it seems it's disappeared.
i'd like to start again from the "basic" bank and basic stakes, and maybe i could double it in 3 months again. i did it once, why can't i do it again... but i'm scared i'll do some more stupid things and burn also the rest of the bank.

[bazbaz]

Sorry to hear about your troubles.... how were you doing before the start of the year? How long have you been trading?

[flok]

2012 would have been my 5th year:
2008 i lost, 2009 i broke even, 2010 and 2011 i won, so the overall balance is positive, but i dont know if the proportion between the profit and the time/stress needed to achieve it makes it worth it.
shit, every afternoon for 3 months... wasted!

now i think i'll take the moto and go for a ride on the road near the sea.
it always helps me to think clearly, see ya later

[bazbaz]

Yeah, definately worth a day or two off at least! It takes big balls to take what this job does to you sometimes mate..... those that make it long term are the ones that come back and fight (in a disciplined way, not loss chasing), most don't do this after massive disappointments though.

If I were you I'd take a break and work out what what works best for you, at what stakes, and just stick to it in a very disciplined way. If you find you're doing well then you can increase stakes, but just do it slowly as your bank grows, making sure that the stakes fit the markets you're in and you're not overexposing yourself.

[layallday]

if i were you i would go anyway on a trip in june, think you will regret it later

probably keeps pressure off on your trading

[Portman]

Sorry for the thing, i know the feeling, it's poignant.
If you decide to keep on trading you will restart stronger because now you know:
.you have the technique to be profitable in a consistent manner for months, and this can not be lucky.
.that you period of unlucky (sfiga vera) can persist for 3-4 and more days. Next time you will take a trip in these moments.
.you gone bust because you have overtraded to chase the losses, and now you know better (on your skin) that you CAN'T do it.

live with trading is as riding a tiger, until you control her you are in the grace of gods, but when you lose control ...

keep on Flok, give you another chance, it could be the last big debacle before the new life.

[kawasaki]

[shadowninja]

Did you break any rules? Did you start chasing losses?

[shadowninja]

This reminds me of the time when Euro was hammering USD. A friend and myself just kept buying the dips. It was so easy, we were raping. Then the direction changed and the anus fell out of the Euro before we realised what was going on.

[flok]

ok... i had a ride in moto, spend some time sitting in the sun in front of the sea, talked with an adorable canadian girl (what the hell is doing a canadian tourist on march in the smallest region of italy... misteries of the universe) and now i see everything from a better point of view.

i decided to keep trading and consider this financial and psichologic blow as the price i pay for the experience... i better know the kind of mistakes i make when i'm nervous, and i better know my reaction under pressure: i break my own rules in a kind of suicidal tendency, i become aggressive and tend to risk even more when i'm losing instead of trying to limit the damage.
let's say: when you get attacked by a dog that steals your steak, you can run away and lose only the steak, or you can fight: sometimes you'll get the steak back, but sooner or later you'll lose a hand. right?
(an old saying of my town says "escaping is shame, but is health" )

i know that i still have the edge, but ONLY if:

- i trade in a relaxed way
- i use comfortable stakes
- i dont get mad when i lose (this leads me to overstake, gamble, chase losses etc)
- i dont get deliriums of omnipotence when i win easily
- i choose the races (not all are good for my way of trading)

i tried this afternoon using the basic stakes and i earned the 3% of my half-bank.
my objective is to earn the average of 1-2% per day, so in 2-3 months i'll have back my full bank (as it was 3 days ago )

if i reach the objective, i'll use part of the new bank for my summer moto-trip.
if i dont, i'll take the money for the trip from the work-money, instead of the trading-money.
anyway i want my well deserved vacation!

now is time to party with 15 friends and 50 liters of german beer, i think is enough to make me forget the trading-tragedy, make me spend a lot of time in the toilet and give me a huge headache tomorrow.
hey, is a dirty job but someone must do it.

thank you guys for support and suggestions, i'll keep you posted about my walk along the path that leads to my beloved full-bank

[shadowninja]

I find that when ever I increase stakes, my first trade is always a loss.

[KOTBIIAJIbTO]

I have the same psychological issues as you flok and my style is too aggressive. That's why I quitted trading about half a year ago and started betting in-play using some formal criteria and fixed stake amounts. Maybe you should also try to eliminate all kind of subjectivity in your trading and start working like a machine. That's the only way I can make profits in the long term.

[Caan Berry]

Flok,

I'll be brutally honest with you, from your original post i read it and a couple of things struck me straight away.
First off the frame of mind you are in, i'd say your edge is probably still their but your frame of mind is completely limiting you. its a rollercoaster when your doing well and you have a dip in progress but that is when the good traders come into their own and those still trying begin to fail. I have expereinced this many times, my advice would be: turn off the computer have a week away from trading, redeposit what you need and nothing more when your back and completely erase past results performance etc previous to the point you sit down, forget it, its gone. Build back up, the rest unfortunately takes repeated laps on this rollercoaster before you crack the repetative cycle, seriously tho forget the past and that time you had a monster result. it dosent help.

The second thing would be that you said you have lost lays at 5 and backs at 1.3 ..........that says it all to me, what are you thinking of laying at 5 or backing at 1.3?? thats just stacking the odds in favour of someone else? if you cant see that you may aswell go find yourself a nice shiny fruit machine where your garenteed to win 25% of the time and put your money in it all day long.

Be the fruit machine, not the player

[doubleback]

Very true, chuck. I'd like to add that I got a whiff of self-sabotage in the opening post.

[WhyAlwaysMe]

i dont even remember how the hell i managed to double my bank in 2 months and a half. i cant be just lucky for 2 months in a row, right?
so i had an edge... it seems it's disappeared.

Flok when I read this I am worried. The truth is that it is possible to be lucky two months in a row, even three and four. Particularly if you are laying selections of 5 and above. It's variance like this that keeps -EV punters in the game so long before suddenly bam they have a stream of losses and can't believe their bad luck.

I have experienced a lot of variance over the years because I play casino bonuses for profit. What I know is if you do something for long enough these 1 in 10000 experiences will visit you, for good and bad. 1 in 10000 may seem bad but believe me it can get a whole lot worse or even better, you really do have to give variance a lot of respect because it is vicious when it strikes.

I know you know this but the fundamnetal error you have made is doubling your stakes because if you hit a run of really rough variance it has a magnified effect. You get out of your comfort zone and before you know it you are making poor -EV decisions, you start to think more about getting the money back than making the correct play. Then you make the bad decision only to see the correct play come in and confidence is shattered. It's really easy to get into this cycle if you double stakes. Really you want to be lifting them 10-15% at most if you have a strong edge.

A few years ago when I was starting out I was sportsbetting at a level far higher than I should have. I had a run far less worse than yours only in the 100's yet racked up massive losses. I was really in the sh1t and found the only way out was to work a lot harder and up my intensity. I found a good way was to earn as much as I could through other means, I did a massive amount of casino and poker bonuses in a week, it was an 18 hr a day job. It doesn't really matter if it is gambling or doing anything else you can to make some quick money but if you can get some cash on the board fast it makes a big difference to the mindset. Another thing I did was to mentally divide my debt into 10 and work it off a chunk at a time. Just to ease the pain.

It's funny now I look back it seems not such a big loss but at the time it was huge, I wiped out my whole gambling bankroll that I had spent six months building! It was totally horrible, I used to think about it all the time. Once I had won a chunk of it back my confidence came back and I started making good decisions plus had some luck too. But if you work really really hard the luck is more likely to come.

The difference between trading and what I was doing is that with the stuff I was doing I could measure my EV advantage very accurately. Particularly with casino and poker I was getting a big edge, sports was smaller but still there. All I am saying is that with horse inplay trading you have to be very sure you do have an edge or you are going to end up getting seriously burned. Only you can answer that one ofcourse.

It's a hard thing to admit you don't have an edge but the ability to do so is what seperates the winners from the losers in gambling. This is why I don't currently trade lol. I don't have an edge and will stick to areas where I know I do until they all ban me. All you traders I salute you, you guys are very talented to be able to succeed at this.