Horses statistics

[Larry]

Hallo,

I am looking for a site that provides results or statistics of horses depending on their prices BUT before the start.
For example,i want to see the % of the winning horses that were priced between 10,00-15,00 the last month.

Thanks.

[Cran]

As an educated guess I'd say that horses priced at 10 will win about 10% of the time and horses priced at 15 will win about 6.67% of the time.

You'll need some sort of filter other than just price if you want to find an edge.

[Larry]

That is true but only in theory.

If horses were that difficult(or easy,depends) to predict,there would be no difference between horses and roulette...

[flok]

i'm very interested in this topic... i had this discussion before in another forum.

i think the difference between betting and roulette is that in sports the outcome is not completely random.
if you play roulette there's no way to find an edge, cause every number is a new one, completely independent, not influenced by previous ones, by mathematics/statistics and other factors (unless the roulette is defective, if it's defective it's still not influenced by mathematics/statistics, but by phisics). unlike blackjack, where a card that is already out of the deck can't be taken again, in roulette all the numbers are always there, and this means that every time we play we pay a commission of 1/37.

in roulette every number is always at 2,7% and you can back it only @36 while the right price would be @37.
while in betting, since the outcome is not completely random, if you have a knowledge that gives you an edge you can find convenient prices that are higher than the real probability, like playing roulette and back every number @38.
of course, the markets tend to go always to the price that implies the most correct probability, but we dont know WHEN... that's why we're here

[Portman]

In the long term the price is an expression of the probability.

However...

UK/IRE races in 2012 = 2088
Races with winner price (BF SP) between 10 and 15 = 207 (9,9%)
average price = 12.28

this statistic is not usable in practice because in one race often there is more than one horse with a price between 10 and 15 or could be no horses in this odd range.

[Cran]

That is true but only in theory.

If horses were that difficult(or easy,depends) to predict,there would be no difference between horses and roulette...

If you are selecting them just on price then it is the same as roulette...

Actual BF SP stats from the UK win market for the last 4 years (38314 races):

price >= 10 and < 15
runners 50904 winners 4175 = 8.20%

price >=10 <11
runners 11530 winners 1032 = 8.95%

price >=11 <12
runners 11185 winners 1012 = 9.05%

price >=12 <13
runners 10239 winners 808 = 7.89%

price >=13 <14
runners 9295 winners 711 = 7.65%

price >=14 < 15
runners 8655 winners 612 = 7.07%


Just to check my guess that odds of 10 would have a 10% and odds of 15 would have a 6.67 chance...

price >=9.5 < 10.5
runners 13135 winners 1327 = 10.10%

price >=14.5 < 15.5
runners 8204 winners 587 = 7.16%

Not bad for a guess...

[Larry]

I think the higher the prices get,the easiest an egde to find...

In fact I am interested in prices between 60-120.

It would be nice to tell me where i could find all this beautiful information...

[Temujin]

Cran is right here. The market on average knows exactly what they are doing. In single races, there is huge value to be had generally, but that is for people that can sum up a race and make a real market. Average all the prices though without any other info, and a 10.00 runner on average will win 10% of the time. Simple as that.

The only way you can get an edge by such methods, is reading the market better than others, and getting the best price you can. If you have a horse starting at 10.00, and you can average 10% better by market reading than its SP, then you have your edge. Otherwise you need to read the form better than others. There is your 2 ways of finding an edge on gambling. And believe me, this is a long drawn out process that can see you questioning your method for months at a time until it comes good.
I did it on the favs and came out on top, but it is that much of a head**** that I wouldn't recommend it to anybody, unless they were much better at reading a market than I am. Even then you are looking at a long time between drinks, and a huge bankroll to last out the run of outs.

[Cran]

It would be nice to tell me where i could find all this beautiful information...

There's a link in my signature

[UNIVAC1050]

Hello,

Interesting topic.

About 40 years ago I was “between jobs” and my accountant. (yes MY ACCOUNTANT !!!) suggested I try my hand at gambling…

It was of course before home computers, so everything was done with a pocket calculator and a year’s back issues of The Sporting Life (An expensive investment).
Today I can analyse the past year's races in 50 milliseconds. 40 years ago it took 50 hours.


What I discovered then and still today, is what Cran said. If a horse has a starting price of 10 to 1 it will win one in ten races. 50 to 1 it will win one in fifty races etc.

But I have never understood WHY.

I can understand that many people are good at reading form etc, and so these people should be the ones who pick the favourite.
If the favourite does not win, then maybe the people who were not so good at reading form picked the second favourite and that won.


But the people who picked the 50 to 1 horse must have been bloody awful at reading form, as it seemed like a no hoper.
But It STLL wins one in 50 times.

I’m not sure if I’m making myself clear, but it just seems so weird that it works out that way.

Or have I got it all wrong?



Regards,

[bazbaz]

Try this site - you can programme in all sorts of scenarios and it will give you the average stats for them

http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/db3/thaccess.php?fav=1&odda=1&flat=-1&p1=ejlub2JvZHl1dQ==&p2=NWw5Wm5vcGFzc3dvcmRd&p3=MTMzMjYwNjU2MQ==

[Larry]

Thanks a lot for the information!

[kingsley]

This may help or it might not be what you need but try www.juststarthere.com which as it says in it's preamble:

"Identify Horse Racing Market Movers Quickly & Easily


Our betting tool JustStartHere identifies horse racing market movers by recording and comparing prices from betting exchanges at key times throughout the day and displaying the data live in a clear and concise manner."

I have used this for a while and at £6.00 per month represents good value. Hopefully you will realise that I'm not spamming but it's just an excellent tool and if you use the generate CSV results you will be able to see betting patterns on the exchanges back to July last year.

Following the money isn't always the answer as you will all know but this site does provide up to the minute statistical price movement that can also provide a profitable add on to your methods.

[LuckyYou]

Ok can someone answer me this question:

http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/200512/Navan-GB-Nav/1435

The BSP here is 5.80. But the horse actually has never reached that 5.80. The highest odds that it has been traded is 5.50? How is that possible?
So are the BSPs bugged sometimes or they are right every time ?!

[Cran]

Ok can someone answer me this question:

http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/200512/Navan-GB-Nav/1435

The BSP here is 5.80. But the horse actually has never reached that 5.80. The highest odds that it has been traded is 5.50? How is that possible?
So are the BSPs bugged sometimes or they are right every time ?!

It's to do with how much is on each side of the market and they have some rules and calculations for working it out.

http://www.betfair.com/help/Help.SP.Betting/