TENNIS TRADING QUESTION: laying at 1,05 and lower?

[milou]

I see so much money traded at the end of the game(1,05 and lower),is this the most lucrative entry point in a tennis-match,scalping the market with large stakes?Low risks for big profits?

[bibu]

It can be profitable if you know what you're doing, obviously. There is a lot of money and a lot of competition at those odds, and the people betting courtside have a big advantage, they are basically the ones who get their money matched, in my estimation most of the money in a market are from courtsiders.

[Temujin]

The most lucrative entry point? Depends on the value they are getting on that entry point. The most lucrative entry point is the one that provides you with the most value.

[milou]

First of all thanks for your reply.
I use myself a pretty simple but very profitable tennis trading strategy.Swingtrading WTA matches only,i lay the fav on the start of the match for 100€,green up 40 or losing 20,plain simple ,on the long run i'm right about 50% of the time by carefully selecting my matches.This is penny-trading comparing to the highrollers at the end of the game.At the start of the match it's not always possible to trade 1000€ because of the liquidity(only top WTA-matches will suit).So i wonder why there's so much money already put in the market the night before (the opening of the market)at very low odds on both players.Easy to trade 5000€ in these oddsrange.
Maybe so many WTA players choke when serving for the match and traders want to be first in queue?
Has someone any expierence trading the end-game,trading at 5000€ means 50€/tick,a different ball-game than what i'm making now!
Sorry for my poor english i'm belgian.

[scarrabeo]

@milou
...i ll answer you with my bad english...sorry(greek)

.....as the percentages said!!.....what ever the SP is,when odds drop under 1.10...we have a very recurred scenario....

...what i mean....????...1.09 turns to 1.10 94%...1.08 turns to 1.09 95%............1.04 turns to 1.05 95%.....1.01 turns to 1.02 94.8%.........AT LEAST ONE TIME.....(sometimes happened mores)

...a problem occurs here if you wanna trade 5000 or more....simply.....you will not find 5000...in most of the times.....

and if you wanna find some more less than that......you must have a VEEEEEERY good position in the queue....and again dont be sure that you will match....because they can matched only a few euros...and then down.....

....off course... there are matches that you can find liquidity...with more than 500000 matched in every one off low odds(<1.10)...and the up down becames here ,more than once

if you find that matches...you can find easy 50s/per tick

you can see some of the results of Eggman in a past challenge!!!!!!!!....i believe that somewhere down there happends

[bibu]

Example: If I'm fist in line with the early lay @ 1.06, I'll be able to get it matched when the bet represents value, let's say at 6-3, 3-0*. If you're not first and you want to lay at that point in the match, you can only get 1.07. Or maybe you could get 1.06, but at 6-3, 3-0*, 15-0*, and you know that if the outsider gets broken for 4-0, it's over.

[WhyAlwaysMe]

[QUOTE=scarrabeo;78512

.....as the percentages said!!.....what ever the SP is,when odds drop under 1.10...we have a very recurred scenario....

...what i mean....????...1.09 turns to 1.10 94%...1.08 turns to 1.09 95%............1.04 turns to 1.05 95%.....1.01 turns to 1.02 94.8%.........AT LEAST ONE TIME.....(sometimes happened mores)

[/QUOTE]


How exactly do you work out these percentages? In other words how do you go about testing something like this? Do you use excel to do it?

[scarrabeo]

@Alwaysme

...no i dont use excel to do that......only my data are in xls format

...to do that i use a "handmade" script which a friend wrote for me....which i ask questions....

as example: ask him to find all players with SP 1.6......then ask him to "tell" me what happened if one off those players touch 1.08 ...and he give the result that if a player with SP 1.6 touch 1.08 turns to 1.09 93.6% and 6.4% goes straight down to 1.07

[Cran]

I used to lay tennis at 1.05 and it did work for a while if I could get at the front of the queue, but there were long draw downs so needed to use a small % of bank.

Doesn't work any more without filtering the matches and or some tennis knowledge about who will fight back in what tournaments etc. and that takes too long for the amount of profits you can get imo (but might work for someone who knows more about tennis)

In the last 6 months just laying 1.05 blind pretty much breaks even after commission so it could possibly be used to produce turnover and keep your commission % down a bit, but not much else.

Also it's not very scalable as you won't always get matched for larger amounts unless the price goes through 1.05 down to 1.04 or lower at which point you have lost the value. By that I mean if there is a lot of money backing at 1.05 then it is more likely that the player will win than if only a small amount is backing.

[scarrabeo]

I agree with Cran tha FILTERING and PARAMETRES(and right categorised)are the key if you wanna produce prediction from data analysing....

i disagree with that: " By that I mean if there is a lot of money backing at 1.05 then it is more likely that the player will win than if only a small amount is backing".....

[Portman]

Last year i've tried for a time an automated strategy that follows the short odds: when the price goes below 1.20 catch the better price you can and pray.
Well at the end (some hundreds trades) the result is that many times the horse won i could not catch the price (not a good price above 1.14-1-18 or near), in all the other cases (my horse loses) naturally i could take the requested prices. I abandoned it :Ban

[Cran]

i disagree with that: " By that I mean if there is a lot of money backing at 1.05 then it is more likely that the player will win than if only a small amount is backing".....

Fair enough

There will often be small amounts trying to jump ahead of the queue, i.e. backing at 1.05 when the value is 1.06 or 1.07...

You can pick these up with small stakes if you are front of the lay queue.

If you put large amounts in you will often get part matched on losers and always fully matched on winners...

just my experience with trying larger stakes with no filtering.