Betfair Share Price

[The Geek]

The Betfair share price went sub 700 today. { 681 at last count. }

Do you think we should hold a monthly competition on guessing what the Betfair share price will be at the end of each month? :Kerching

[custard]

Why don't you make a stop loss for them ?

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

Ended the day at £6.82

[LuckyYou]

Why don't you make a stop loss for them ?

:Brilliant:Brilliant:Brilliant

[luckynumberslevin]

Why don't you make a stop loss for them ?

I thought PC payers where stop loss?

[The Geek]

Why don't you make a stop loss for them ?

Because even I can't perform miracles & stop the Betfair shares dropping in price.

Perhaps Betfair could have their own market in financials for the Betfair share price. Now that would be fun!

[macin]

I dont know if anyone noticed, but according to finance.google.com, on 17th of June at the end of the day there was a transaction on Betfair shares of around 2.7m. Very odd, as the average daily volume seems to be around 200k. Secondly, it was the top price since the slide down begun. From 850 down to 680... that's a nice short position worth half a million after 3 weeks ... or long which is off 0.5m

[ron]

Why don't you make a stop loss for them ?

I almost choked on some chips when i read that

[doubleback]

I would take a punt and say that the price will reverse and rise.

Taking 682p as a datum, I believe the price will go up,
for the simple reason that people tend to gamble more when times are hard/cost of living rises etc.....
The trend on the graph is still in a downward trend and I don't think the price of betfair has hit the bottom yet.
Fundamentally there is nothing to suggest a reversal in that trend but I am going long on this one.
When you hear people in the pub saying that the price of a share is going down,
that is the time to buyl!

[PesceLesso]

Buying today holds a yield if 0.7%. A German Treasury Bond (3 months) pays better: 1.01%, with far less risk.
Forecast for 2012 is 1.2% vs. 12 months German Treasury Bond 1.45%
2013: 1.6%; German TB 2 years 1.54%
where is my premium for risk?

this is on the other hand the current and forecast of a much more (currently) solid business, Rolls-Royce plc;



they are going to give, at today's share price, a yield of 2.7% this year, next year a 2.9% forecast. Here at least the stock price is giving a premium compared to the (supposed to be) risk free German Bond.

To buy a stock of a company such as Betfair, running a business with highly debatable, in the current situation, prospects of growth I'd like to see a yield around 5% at least. that would mean, with 6p as dividend, a share price of abt 101.2p (!!!!!). Betting that they will indeed pay 9.51 next year a share price of 190.2p

Now, the buyback (financed with the PC2) is going to rake £50m, at the current market capitalization of £735.91 that would represent a 6.7%. Is the market going to appreciate that much and give this 7% (btw today alone the BF share left on the ground 5.4%....)? f*uck knows.

Buying Betfair betting it will raise back... well if I have to gamble in the financial markets I prefer to scalp the Forex, or spread bet on the major stock index futures or currency cross rates. If I have to make a medium/long term investment /speculation, Betfair wouldn't even be considered among my choices. just my opinion of course

PS: Doubleback, I'm going to work out some odds and then laying a BF raiseback to you... just let me do some math

[doubleback]

To buy a stock of a company such as Betfair, running a business with highly debatable, in the current situation, prospects of growth I'd like to see a yield around 5% at least. that would mean, with 6p as dividend, a share price of abt 101.2p (!!!!!). Betting that they will indeed pay 9.51 next year a share price of 190.2p

Group revenue on an underlying basis rose 8.1 per cent in the period 2010/11 to £368.6 million,
while pre-tax profit jumped 54.4 per cent to £35.1 million.

Betfair said it would be paying a maiden final dividend of 5.9 pence per share,
adding that it had net cash of £155 million.

The group said it had seen record site activity during the year,
with the number of bets matched rising 20 per cent to 916 million.
The group reported a 24 percent growth in football revenues.

Beware of the Doomsdayers!

[LuckyYou]

Actually I prefer Betfair to be in uptrend...

[PesceLesso]

actually I prefer.... nothing.

my concern, whether I'd be keen to make a bet (which I'm not... still working the odds to offer a lay to doubleback though, just for the fun of it ) would be to guess, with an acceptable confidence, a sound probability for the share price to go up or down, of a certain amount in a certain time. period.

anything else is laughable glamour.... imho as usual (note: what really counts, at the end of the day, is the p/l outcome...)

PS: what moves a share price is the "big hands" or big money, read: investment funds, pension funds, banks, other institutions, etc. read my previous post, and then ask yourself a question: whether you'd be a pension fund manager, forced to choose the high risk asset of yr portfolio, would you buy Rolls-Royce or Betfair? it goes as simple as that...

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

The group said it had seen record site activity during the year,
with the number of bets matched rising 20 per cent to 916 million.
The group reported a 24 percent growth in football revenues.

Beware of the Doomsdayers!

Ummmm, you do realise those profits/bets were inflated by the world cup betting. A 6p dividend on a £13 share certainly isn't a return I'd be happy with.

At the moment a share buy back is one of the few options left for Betfair to invest those cash reserves as there's little room for growth within the business at present.

[doubleback]

read my previous post, and then ask yourself a question: whether you'd be a pension fund manager, forced to choose the high risk asset of yr portfolio, would you buy Rolls-Royce or Betfair? it goes as simple as that...

Ummmm, you do realise those profits/bets were inflated by the world cup betting. A 6p dividend on a £13 share certainly isn't a return I'd be happy with.

At the moment a share buy back is one of the few options left for Betfair to invest those cash reserves as there's little room for growth within the business at present.

For me this is highly speculative, high risk and a contrarian line of thought, nothing more, nothing less.
Of course if I was a pension fund manager, this speculative buy would only constitute a small part of the portfolio due to the high risk.
I feel that the sports trading community are at a crossroads, will BetDaq and Smarkets step up to the mark?
Will a new CEO at Betfair bring something new?
Will the Euro 2012 and the Olympics mean a bumper year for Betfair?
Questions, questions..........