Tweet
Rain, rain and more rain. Expect Saturday's fields to cut up drastically. Quality all the way throughout Saturday afternoon's card;
2.30 Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) 7f
Maybe is a shorty for the Ballydoyle team. She led from start to finish in a 6f Naas Maiden last month on Good to Firm ground. The second from that race finished second next time in the Listed race won by Teolane (Beaten in the Albany, Friday). Maybe is a filly by Galileo - she takes on the colts here and is put in the 6/4 favourite. The chief danger according to the market is another filly, Godolphin's Falls Of Lora. She has raced twice - first time up she was green and headed in the final furlong of a 6f Goodwood maiden, next time she was the clear-cut winner of a 7f maiden at Doncaster. By Street Cry out of a Danehill mare, soft ground is possibly not going to suit her ideally. Richard Hannon runs a son of Lawman, Fort Bastian. He showed signs of greenness in his only start to date at Haydock, where he finished runner-up to Mezmaar. That experience should stand him in good stead for this but he is another who looks to have major ground doubts. At 9/1 is Peter Chapple-Hyam's Telwaar - he has the two runs behind him, 5th first time out at Leicester over 6f and then victory over the same distance in a Doncaster maiden just a fortnight ago. By Haafhd, a son of Alhaarth, he probably wants better ground to be seen at his best. Polydamus has every chance of getting into the money if he can step up again on his debut run when third in a 7f race at Sandown. This son of Nayef is by a Dr Fong mare so both sides of his pedigree tick the ground boxes. They bet 28/1 bar these five.
Recommendation: The fillies at the head of the market do bring the best form to the table, but from a value angle I would side with the 20/1 shot Polydamus each-way for small stakes. A back to lay is a possibility but it might be safer to place the bet on the book as I can see him getting into the race late and grabbing a place as others tire on the ground.
3.05 Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) 1m4f
A field of 9 will go to post for this, as Afsare was declared a non-runner earlier today. The race looks to be another penalty kick for the Ballydoyle boys, as Await The Dawn has been put in at 4/5 and he is solid even at those odds. He won a soft ground maiden on his 2yo debut back in July 2009 and went on to have a crack at the Champagne Stakes (Group 2) at Doncaster, where he trailed in last of the seven runners. He was not seen on the track again until the following August, when he won a 3 runner Cork event. It was back to Group company next time, he won the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown over 1m2f. Await The Dawn won the Huxley Stakes at Chester in May over 10 furlongs - showing an end of race spurt that has convinced everyone that the 12 furlong trip in the Hardwicke will not prove to be problematic for him. You can get 12/1 bar one in this and that price covers the trio of Passion For Gold, Calvados Blues & Campanologist who all represent Godolphin. They are hard to split but Passion For Gold's defeat of Mikhail Glinka on heavy going in November 2009 is probably the most worthwhile peace of form from the three. Drunken Sailor has bits & pieces of soft ground form and all he does is stay. Poet was probably flattered by his close second to Workforce at Sandown recently where he dictated the pace. The same tactics failed on soft ground in France last time and so he has points to prove now. Laaheb could prove to be the main danger, judged on his Meydan run behind Rewilding in March. This son of Cape Cross won't mind the ground, the same comment applies to Harris Tweed who made great strides in Handicaps as a 3yo last year. Kings Gambit cannot be totally discounted in a race where staying will prove to be the key.
Recommendation: Tactics, tactics, tactics. Godolphin run three, Ballydoyle one. I would happily lay Await The Dawn at Evs, so at 4/5 it has to be done. Wait to see how Maybe does in the first as the price could shorten yet further!
3.45 Golden Jubilee (Group 1) 6f
Expect Delegator to come out, as the boys in blue were making noises about the ground on Friday. Bewitched would become favourite is Delegator does defect, the daughter of Dansili posted a career best last time when beating the eventual St James' Palace second Zoffany in a Group 3 over 7f at Leopardstown last time. This is a significant rise in class for her - so although she can offer some soft ground form she would probably prefer it to be a bit quicker under foot. Connections of Star Witness always had this race as their charge's main target, he was looked after when second earlier in the week but his ability to act on this rain softened surface must now be taken on trust. Bated Breath and Dalghar feature next in the betting but both have ground question marks. The 3yo Hooray carries Cheveley Park's main hopes for this and she is improving with every run. At the prices she appeals more than Kingsgate Native who runs for the same owners. If he runs it will be his first experience of such a soft surface, although being out of an Indian Ridge mare he has a chance of acting on the soft. Genki was beaten by Bewitched off levels in October and he must now give that rival 3 pounds. Elzaam (Redoute's Choice) probably wants better ground, whereas Definightly (Diktat) will be OK, but stable jockey Steve Drowne has opted to ride Genki.
Recommendation: Obviously it will depend on who goes to post and who does not, however at this stage I would be looking to split stakes between Hooray (12.0) on one side of the draw and Definightly (15.5) on the other.
4.25 Wokingham Stakes (Handicap) 6f
As with the last on Friday, the focus point is soft ground horses with a mid-high draw. Of the older generation Prime Defender makes some appeal at massive odds. His mark has slipped to 102 now (Has won off 109, peaked at 113) and although he doesn't win very often (7/51), he'll be fine on the surface and charges out of box 17. Of the young'uns, Victoire De Lyphar has to be of some interest as he is clearly on the upgrade. He ran well under the race conditions last time at Haydock (May, 6f, Good to Firm) and that would have put him spot on for this contest.
Recommendation: If you can get 50/1 e/w 1-2-3-4-5 Prime Defender, take it. Victoire De Lyphar is a fraction of the price at 12 but he should also be backed each way.
5.00 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) 1m4f
19 go to post and their official ratings vary from 91 (Coin Of The Realm) to 101 (Prompter) after Salute Him's defection. Modun probably justifies his position at the head of the betting (7/2f), following an un-extended victory at Newbury first time up in a 0-85. The second horse that day was a cosy winner two starts later. This son of Kings Best is untried on soft but both his father and dam-sire produce soft ground progeny so it should not be a problem for him. Sharaayeen has proven himself on this type of going whereas Rock A Doodle Doo has not. Taqleed beat Sharaayeen in a handicap last season (Giving away 9lbs) and now gets four pounds - so he must feature high on the list of possibles. Blissful Moment, like Modun, hails from Sir Michael Stoute's stable. He is by Dynaformer out of Desert Prince mare - this surface is a big unknown and my head says that he won't act on it. They bet 12/1 bar five and the pick of the remainder for me would be the Johnston pair Fox Hunt and Jutland - probably in that order. A wide, wide open affair.
Recommendation: Modun should prove popular but the percentage call is to side with Taqleed (8.8) and Fox Hunt (24.0) for me. Each way or back to lay.
5.35 Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) 2m5f
20 runners over 2m5f and it will have been raining all day on already soft ground by the time the starter lets them go! Easy! The top one Ajaan is undoubtedly class on his day, although they are now few and far between. Overturn has proven himself as a useful stayer on the flat as well as mixing it in the hurdling ranks, but 4/1 looks to be short all things considered. The sensible call here is to sit it out, for an interest I would chance runners 13, 14 & 15 as their respective pedigrees suggest that a marathon trip on soft would be within their capabilities.
Recommendation: Crack a beer, toast the Queen (And English racing
) and place absolute minimum win bets on Kayef (0.34 pts @ 28), Herostatus (0.33 pts @ 65) and Chink Of Light (0.33 pts @ 50). Either that or just crack a beer and watch the slowest runners of the whole week slug it out for 5 mins, whilst counting the profits from what has gone before.
Have a great weekend people
2.30 Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) 7f
Maybe is a shorty for the Ballydoyle team. She led from start to finish in a 6f Naas Maiden last month on Good to Firm ground. The second from that race finished second next time in the Listed race won by Teolane (Beaten in the Albany, Friday). Maybe is a filly by Galileo - she takes on the colts here and is put in the 6/4 favourite. The chief danger according to the market is another filly, Godolphin's Falls Of Lora. She has raced twice - first time up she was green and headed in the final furlong of a 6f Goodwood maiden, next time she was the clear-cut winner of a 7f maiden at Doncaster. By Street Cry out of a Danehill mare, soft ground is possibly not going to suit her ideally. Richard Hannon runs a son of Lawman, Fort Bastian. He showed signs of greenness in his only start to date at Haydock, where he finished runner-up to Mezmaar. That experience should stand him in good stead for this but he is another who looks to have major ground doubts. At 9/1 is Peter Chapple-Hyam's Telwaar - he has the two runs behind him, 5th first time out at Leicester over 6f and then victory over the same distance in a Doncaster maiden just a fortnight ago. By Haafhd, a son of Alhaarth, he probably wants better ground to be seen at his best. Polydamus has every chance of getting into the money if he can step up again on his debut run when third in a 7f race at Sandown. This son of Nayef is by a Dr Fong mare so both sides of his pedigree tick the ground boxes. They bet 28/1 bar these five.
Recommendation: The fillies at the head of the market do bring the best form to the table, but from a value angle I would side with the 20/1 shot Polydamus each-way for small stakes. A back to lay is a possibility but it might be safer to place the bet on the book as I can see him getting into the race late and grabbing a place as others tire on the ground.
3.05 Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) 1m4f
A field of 9 will go to post for this, as Afsare was declared a non-runner earlier today. The race looks to be another penalty kick for the Ballydoyle boys, as Await The Dawn has been put in at 4/5 and he is solid even at those odds. He won a soft ground maiden on his 2yo debut back in July 2009 and went on to have a crack at the Champagne Stakes (Group 2) at Doncaster, where he trailed in last of the seven runners. He was not seen on the track again until the following August, when he won a 3 runner Cork event. It was back to Group company next time, he won the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown over 1m2f. Await The Dawn won the Huxley Stakes at Chester in May over 10 furlongs - showing an end of race spurt that has convinced everyone that the 12 furlong trip in the Hardwicke will not prove to be problematic for him. You can get 12/1 bar one in this and that price covers the trio of Passion For Gold, Calvados Blues & Campanologist who all represent Godolphin. They are hard to split but Passion For Gold's defeat of Mikhail Glinka on heavy going in November 2009 is probably the most worthwhile peace of form from the three. Drunken Sailor has bits & pieces of soft ground form and all he does is stay. Poet was probably flattered by his close second to Workforce at Sandown recently where he dictated the pace. The same tactics failed on soft ground in France last time and so he has points to prove now. Laaheb could prove to be the main danger, judged on his Meydan run behind Rewilding in March. This son of Cape Cross won't mind the ground, the same comment applies to Harris Tweed who made great strides in Handicaps as a 3yo last year. Kings Gambit cannot be totally discounted in a race where staying will prove to be the key.
Recommendation: Tactics, tactics, tactics. Godolphin run three, Ballydoyle one. I would happily lay Await The Dawn at Evs, so at 4/5 it has to be done. Wait to see how Maybe does in the first as the price could shorten yet further!
3.45 Golden Jubilee (Group 1) 6f
Expect Delegator to come out, as the boys in blue were making noises about the ground on Friday. Bewitched would become favourite is Delegator does defect, the daughter of Dansili posted a career best last time when beating the eventual St James' Palace second Zoffany in a Group 3 over 7f at Leopardstown last time. This is a significant rise in class for her - so although she can offer some soft ground form she would probably prefer it to be a bit quicker under foot. Connections of Star Witness always had this race as their charge's main target, he was looked after when second earlier in the week but his ability to act on this rain softened surface must now be taken on trust. Bated Breath and Dalghar feature next in the betting but both have ground question marks. The 3yo Hooray carries Cheveley Park's main hopes for this and she is improving with every run. At the prices she appeals more than Kingsgate Native who runs for the same owners. If he runs it will be his first experience of such a soft surface, although being out of an Indian Ridge mare he has a chance of acting on the soft. Genki was beaten by Bewitched off levels in October and he must now give that rival 3 pounds. Elzaam (Redoute's Choice) probably wants better ground, whereas Definightly (Diktat) will be OK, but stable jockey Steve Drowne has opted to ride Genki.
Recommendation: Obviously it will depend on who goes to post and who does not, however at this stage I would be looking to split stakes between Hooray (12.0) on one side of the draw and Definightly (15.5) on the other.
4.25 Wokingham Stakes (Handicap) 6f
As with the last on Friday, the focus point is soft ground horses with a mid-high draw. Of the older generation Prime Defender makes some appeal at massive odds. His mark has slipped to 102 now (Has won off 109, peaked at 113) and although he doesn't win very often (7/51), he'll be fine on the surface and charges out of box 17. Of the young'uns, Victoire De Lyphar has to be of some interest as he is clearly on the upgrade. He ran well under the race conditions last time at Haydock (May, 6f, Good to Firm) and that would have put him spot on for this contest.
Recommendation: If you can get 50/1 e/w 1-2-3-4-5 Prime Defender, take it. Victoire De Lyphar is a fraction of the price at 12 but he should also be backed each way.
5.00 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) 1m4f
19 go to post and their official ratings vary from 91 (Coin Of The Realm) to 101 (Prompter) after Salute Him's defection. Modun probably justifies his position at the head of the betting (7/2f), following an un-extended victory at Newbury first time up in a 0-85. The second horse that day was a cosy winner two starts later. This son of Kings Best is untried on soft but both his father and dam-sire produce soft ground progeny so it should not be a problem for him. Sharaayeen has proven himself on this type of going whereas Rock A Doodle Doo has not. Taqleed beat Sharaayeen in a handicap last season (Giving away 9lbs) and now gets four pounds - so he must feature high on the list of possibles. Blissful Moment, like Modun, hails from Sir Michael Stoute's stable. He is by Dynaformer out of Desert Prince mare - this surface is a big unknown and my head says that he won't act on it. They bet 12/1 bar five and the pick of the remainder for me would be the Johnston pair Fox Hunt and Jutland - probably in that order. A wide, wide open affair.
Recommendation: Modun should prove popular but the percentage call is to side with Taqleed (8.8) and Fox Hunt (24.0) for me. Each way or back to lay.
5.35 Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) 2m5f
20 runners over 2m5f and it will have been raining all day on already soft ground by the time the starter lets them go! Easy! The top one Ajaan is undoubtedly class on his day, although they are now few and far between. Overturn has proven himself as a useful stayer on the flat as well as mixing it in the hurdling ranks, but 4/1 looks to be short all things considered. The sensible call here is to sit it out, for an interest I would chance runners 13, 14 & 15 as their respective pedigrees suggest that a marathon trip on soft would be within their capabilities.
Recommendation: Crack a beer, toast the Queen (And English racing
) and place absolute minimum win bets on Kayef (0.34 pts @ 28), Herostatus (0.33 pts @ 65) and Chink Of Light (0.33 pts @ 50). Either that or just crack a beer and watch the slowest runners of the whole week slug it out for 5 mins, whilst counting the profits from what has gone before.Have a great weekend people
Comment