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It's day one at Aintree today and the racing is absolutely top notch. A lot has been made over the state of the ground which currently rides Good to Soft on both the Mildmay and National courses. The weather is expected to be nice and warm for the next few days and the clerk of the course has mentioned the possibility of watering at some stage - as a result it is too early to assess the National in any depth as the key to any horse's chance lies in the state of the ground.
At this stage Backstage is the one that looks to be far too short in the betting for what he has actually achieved. Two recent point to point wins amount to little or nothing in terms of form, yet the 143-rated chaser is going to line up as around a 10 or 12/1 chance. Backers will point towards the fact that trainer Gordon Elliott has already trained a National winner in Silver Birch, but he was already a winner over the National fences and he also had a Welsh National to his name prior to taking the 2007 race. Jockey Paul Carberry rides Aintree particularly well (Over the National fences Ruby Walsh, Graham Lee, Barry Geraghty and Paul Carberry should be followed) so Backstage will not lack assistance from the saddle but I think that this is a massive ask for him - he is actually win less under rules since August 2009.
Don't Push It (Weight) and each of The Midnight Club, Silver By Nature and Oscar Time (If fast ground prevails) look opposable at this stage, the three I would side with at present would be What A Friend, Arbor Supreme and Calgary Bay. The current offer of 5/1 for What A Friend to go off favourite looks fair, particularly if it does stay dry and they do not water. Trainer Paul Nicholls has every chance of getting off to a flyer today and sustained support for his Gold Cup fourth will see WAF's odds tumble come race time.
Recommendations lay Backstage @ 14.5
Back What A Friend to start favourite with Totesport or Sportingbet @ 5/1
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Thursday picks;
2.00 Big Bucks / Carlito Brigante, Big Bucks / Karabak CSFs (Currently 7.43 / 17.13)
2.30 Third Intention, Zarkandar
3.05 Nacarat
3.40 Fort View, Turko
4.15 Sports Line, Pepsyrock
4.50 Tharawaat, Royal Charm
5.25 Sire Collonges, Russian George
Be lucky
At this stage Backstage is the one that looks to be far too short in the betting for what he has actually achieved. Two recent point to point wins amount to little or nothing in terms of form, yet the 143-rated chaser is going to line up as around a 10 or 12/1 chance. Backers will point towards the fact that trainer Gordon Elliott has already trained a National winner in Silver Birch, but he was already a winner over the National fences and he also had a Welsh National to his name prior to taking the 2007 race. Jockey Paul Carberry rides Aintree particularly well (Over the National fences Ruby Walsh, Graham Lee, Barry Geraghty and Paul Carberry should be followed) so Backstage will not lack assistance from the saddle but I think that this is a massive ask for him - he is actually win less under rules since August 2009.
Don't Push It (Weight) and each of The Midnight Club, Silver By Nature and Oscar Time (If fast ground prevails) look opposable at this stage, the three I would side with at present would be What A Friend, Arbor Supreme and Calgary Bay. The current offer of 5/1 for What A Friend to go off favourite looks fair, particularly if it does stay dry and they do not water. Trainer Paul Nicholls has every chance of getting off to a flyer today and sustained support for his Gold Cup fourth will see WAF's odds tumble come race time.
Recommendations lay Backstage @ 14.5
Back What A Friend to start favourite with Totesport or Sportingbet @ 5/1
__________________________________________________
Thursday picks;
2.00 Big Bucks / Carlito Brigante, Big Bucks / Karabak CSFs (Currently 7.43 / 17.13)
2.30 Third Intention, Zarkandar
3.05 Nacarat
3.40 Fort View, Turko
4.15 Sports Line, Pepsyrock
4.50 Tharawaat, Royal Charm
5.25 Sire Collonges, Russian George
Be lucky
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