How much money in the markets is trader money?

[Rozzy]

In your reckoning, how much of the money in the markets you trade in is trader money? (As opposed to regular punters money)

Obviously it will depend on what markets you trade in, so maybe its worth posting what market you normally trade in out of interest!

[KOTBIIAJIbTO]

There should be another option: "I have no idea!"

[Rozzy]

There should be another option: "I have no idea!"

Haha! Yes there should have been... I don't think I can change it now though :-)

[Rozzy]

I should say that in the tiny amount of time that I have been trading, I have mostly traded in darts, football and snooker simply they have been on the box at the time.

I have looked at other markets but not really got involved. I reckon about 20-40% is trader money but I have nothing really to base it on, and am probably way off as there is no way of telling for sure.

[kawasaki]

much more interesting would be to know how much there are bot money trying to spoof everyone evil

[bazbaz]

With horses its mostly traders matching money against other traders, no doubt about that

[Caan Berry]

its a rather broad poll, i'd say for the horses 80% + untill the last 10 15 mins or so decreasing as time goes on and volume increases possibly?

[theman73]

With horses its mostly traders matching money against other traders, no doubt about that

With horses its mostly traders matching money against other traders, no doubt about that

I must agree with this , but , lets clarify one think

Like all people see now are more fotball games to trade every day , if the majority of the money are trader money , why are not all fotball games full of money ? Bear in mind the games are at diferent hours so must be a real heaven for traders but is not , a lot of fotball have just a few thousand matched .

Lets say i'm a sportbook , lets say my sportbook name is betinternet ..... tomorow game west ham - birmingham , west ham have 2.1 at betinternet and on betfair is 2.28 right now .....

like a sportbook i take one bet from one player of 1000 euro at 2.1 (i;m betinternet) so if i back 947 euro from my player at betfair at 2.28 , me like a profesional sportbook i will make a nice profit of 52 euro without risking anything

so , lets think again about how much money are trader money in the market

i dont know about horses but in my opinion in fotball and other sports the most money in the market is punters money and sportbooks money

please fell free to correct me

[PC0845]

"Trade what you see not what you want to see", hmm , I've being doing that for some time without success. Please elaborate

http://plaw999.blogspot.come!

[Portman]

I've understood that this is the one million dollar question, i have an idea about an aspect of that but it is only a supposition: when a big bet came and covers multiple odds without splitting the bet in little ones or waiting for matching, it is probably a punter bet because none of the traders/scalpers will do a such disadvantageous thing. Have a sense this reasoning for you, or there is some strategy that requires a such behaviour?

[Rozzy]

Portman if ive understood that right, couldn't the large sums of money you see be advanced traders trying to control the weight of money (and therefore the direction of the market) with large bets that are never intended to be matched?

[Portman]

Sorry very difficult for me to explain complex ideas in english. I also remained confused by a couple of wasting in-play moments during these days!

@FIRST_RULE='dontgoinplay'

[Ted]

Disregarding the %......it's the punters money that MOVES the market...

[Rozzy]

Disregarding the %......it's the punters money that MOVES the market...

Absolutely. I wonder if there is a saturation point somewhere where traders trading out their position cancels out the natural punters movement.

Take for example the classic 'Lay the draw' strategy in football. A goal is scored and the odds move out but the traders (and bots?) are then frantically backing to close their position, bringing the odds back in almost instantly?

[nigelbleddfa]

I think that the distinction between trader and punter is somewhat blurred. If someone is capable of placing a back bet with Betfair , he is capable of placing lay bets too. So, a punter is just one click away from being a trader.

Betfair's back prices are usually higher than the High Street bookies and I can see that some might place straight back bets with Betfair before the start and walk away until the event is completed but, how many do this ? Not many, I think.

The market is incredibly complicated. I have sometimes asked for a price of 2.5 and received as much as 14 just because somebody had offered that price at that moment.

The punter who walks away does not cause the market to change in running. Only traders can do that. They change it in accordance with their views of the probable outcome.

Some people are punters. They have an input into the market in its initial formation but do not influence it thereafter. I think their input can be disregarded as I believe that the market is, essentially, formed by traders alone once an event begins.