Football Laying Strategy - Looking for Advice

[AndrewKent]

Hi folks,

I've only really just got into Football trading (about 4 months in now) and I have been working hard on developing a strategy for predicting when I should Lay a particular outcome within a match.

I have a few data sources that I have found and being an Access/Excel developer for a living, I have this information updating a database and perfroming calculations at the click of a button.

I have a strategy that seems on paper to be quite effective (out of 120,000 matches in my database, it predicts a Lay bet between 88%-93% accuracy rate). I've been using this now for a month and it works but I'm always on the lookout for improvements.

I've been advised that if you find something of value like this that you shouldn't go shouting from the rooftops (which is why I am being quite vague about this!) but I has anyone every developed their own betting strategy and can you offer any general advice about what to watch out for?

I have the basics mastered, such as a staking system and close Bankroll management. But I am looking for more obscure advice. For example, if there is a red card in a game, it can scew my strategy so I tend to "sell" my bets if that happens. Also, I have heard that games/predictions at the start of a season are unpredictable?

Any advice would be great.

Cheers,

Andy

[Ted]

Hi there, Andrew,

nice to have you around.

You don't actually mention what markets you play on, far as I'm

concerned, consider it to be next door to impossible, to win on the

match market, because of the commission.

As you refer to 'within a match', assume U mean in-run

markets ? Staking systems a danger area, we don't know how long

a piece of string is..... most of us on here, like to think we have

developed a 'feel' for mkts like 1.5/2.5/3.5 gls & correct score's

aimed at 'greening up' in-run.


'Sell' sounds like U're a Spread bet refugee ?

Plenty will respond if you put ideas up, without giving the

game away have fun......

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

Agree with Ted there's not much to go on, an 88%-93% strike rate is very impressive but if it's identifying lays around 50/1 it's not going to be much use. Ealy season form can be unreliable but sometimes that throws up value in itself, as for red cards again depends who gets the red card. You should be able to identify those situation from your database already.

The real test with any system is when you start putting cash down as that'll highlight any real flaws hell of a lot quicker, just start small and build up. You'll never get a 100% strike rate and sometimes reducing the number of bets to increase that strike will have a negative effect on your pnl rather than increase it. If you have a system that'll win money on the football you'll be laughing as it's a lot easier to increase stakes there as opposed to most other sports

[Caan Berry]

A very interesting post andrew, i like the idea of compiling some of my own databases and stats that i can autofilter and go through.... do you do it for any other sports? i seen the other thread where there are lots of sources for footie stats do you or anyone else know where the best place for me to build my own database for greyhounds or possibly horses?

Chuck

[kawasaki]

maybe this helps http://www.greyhound-data.com

[AndrewKent]

Hi guys,

Thanks, I think you've given me a few ideas that I need to consider.

I should have said a couple of things, firstly I am betting only on football. I know next to nothing about the markets on other sports and wouldn't know were to begin. Secondly, I am very new to the terminology that's used on here so if I have any stupid questions, be gentle lol!

Okay, I see where you are coming from when you are talking about the strike rate and it not being much use if it loses money in the long run.

My database contains odds data from several betting companies for 1X2 for games over the last 10 years or so. It also has match results. Basic data but I was hoping to keep things simple to start with so I can learn.

I look at a game thats scheduled, and then look at what has happened with the teams involved in previous games where the odds are similar. I then work out a % calculation of how successful I think a "Lay Home, Lay Draw, Lay Away" bet would be.

I have a matrix that I have worked on that I use as a base level for my bets. For example, I will only place a bet if the success chance of my Lay is above 90%. I also ran a series of checks on my strategy. For example, the majority of my Lay Draw bets that lost have draw odds of under 4.50.

So with those things in mind, am I progressing in the right direction? I'm happy to share more of what I am doing if anyone has any pointers in terms of ideas for calculations.

I've noticed that a lot of my Lay Away predictions are 94% accurate but the odds on the away team can be anything from 7.00 to 20.00 so I fully understand the comments concerning value.

Is there anything I should watch out for?

Cheers,

Andy