Want your thoughts about my trading

[Rorschach]

Hi everyone, first real post here so be gentle

I am currently trading the "lay the draw" system on betfair.

My starting bank was 1000 pts.

My first two lays my liability was 100 pts.
Then i upped this to 500 pts and have slowly increased this.
Yesterday i did my 25th trade with a liability of 800 pts.

23 of these 25 trades have been green, averaging a profit of about 8.5% of my liability.
The bank have increased with 916 pts, so almost a doubling in two weeks.

I will make the liability a smaller and smaller percentager of my bank as the bank gets larger, but for now i am content with having a large liability.


The most important factors here are match selection and a clear exit strategy.

* If underdog scores first, i trade out for small loss or breakeven.
* If still 0-0 in the beginning of 2nd half, i trade out for a loss when the loss equals 20% of my liability.

Of my 25 trades, i have had one of each.

If betfair looses feed and market does not go inplay again, then i can back the draw at a regular bookie, even though i pay some for this by having a tad bit shorter odds.

If my internet connection breaks down (god forbid), then i leave myself open for a potential loss of my entire liability.

My question is: Are there any other pitfalls apart from these mentioned i am not aware of, having such big liability?

[flok]

once it happened to me that the market was suspended: 1-0 - very well, i thought.
but before the market reopened, the other team scored immediately 1-1 and i wasn't able to hedge my green.
i know that is a very rare case, but since that day i place a small back on 1-1 first

EDIT: if the connection breaks down, maybe you can close the trading using the cellphone? or buy a usb internet key to use in case of emergency?
if i had a liability of 800 euros i'd have a heart attack if the match ends in a draw

[Rorschach]

once it happened to me that the market was suspended: 1-0 - very well, i thought.
but before the market reopened, the other team scored immediately 1-1 and i wasn't able to hedge my green.
i know that is a very rare case, but since that day i place a small back on 1-1 first

EDIT: if the connection breaks down, maybe you can close the trading using the cellphone? or buy a usb internet key to use in case of emergency?
if i had a liability of 800 euros i'd have a heart attack if the match ends in a draw

Thanks for your response.

Yes i have had that situation, 1-0 and then 1-1 before it reopened. When that happens i just have to treat it like if it's still 0-0, trading out when i reach my normal exit point, if no further goals are scored.

Indeed i actually have the betfair mobile application, and it seems to work fine, so yes, that's an option if my household connection breaks down.

And no, i don't have 800 euros. I stated my bank in points (pts) since my actual bank size is mostly irrelevant.

[Rorschach]

Furthermore, i have experimented (no real bets) what the outcome would be if i backed the favourite after they scored 1-0, leaving all profit on them and break-even on the draw and underdog.

It seems though that the increased profit on the favs is very small compared to an all green on all outcomes, and anything can and will happen in football.

Also, my job as a trader in lay the draw is NOT to try to guess who will ultimately win the match.
Better to just go for equal green on all outcomes and move on, stressfree

[flok]

i agree 100%

[KingA]

Hi
Have read your post quickly and the stand-out point is that you can ring Betfair and using your Telephone Account Number(TAN) you can instruct an agent to close your position in any market.
I would do this to see if a satisfactory outcome can be achieved on a "dry run" basis.
Regards K

[Rorschach]

Of course i jinxed it by posting here, got burned at napoli - palermo, so lost 20% of liability there evil

Still got a healthy profit though, just keep on selecting good matches is key

[Rorschach]

Back on track with Roma yesterday

[Caan Berry]

Its all good if your making profit i did alot of LTD last year and made some good cash like that.... it can be dificult though as its sods law when you red out another goal is scored but thats just the nature of the beast i suppose... when it gets around to febuary time tread carefully as it gets alot more unpredictable i found, good luck though!

[PC0845]

Still got a healthy profit though, just keep on selecting good matches is key

How do you determine a good match, id it the expected number of goals ?

For example if the overs is favoured are these a better game to LTD on ?

When do you trade out for your profit, is it immediately after a goal is scored ?

Any help welcome.

[Rorschach]

Its all good if your making profit i did alot of LTD last year and made some good cash like that.... it can be dificult though as its sods law when you red out another goal is scored but thats just the nature of the beast i suppose... when it gets around to febuary time tread carefully as it gets alot more unpredictable i found, good luck though!

Thanks

How do you determine a good match, id it the expected number of goals ?

For example if the overs is favoured are these a better game to LTD on ?

When do you trade out for your profit, is it immediately after a goal is scored ?

Any help welcome.

Well there are a lot of things i take into consideration.

Obviously it's a good thing if a lot of goals is expected, meaning the odds for over 2.5 goals is lower than under 2.5

But i am also looking at:

* h2h history, should be lots of goals and no 0-0 encounters
* injuries
* motivation....!
* odds movements
* experienced punters reviews of the match

Other things can be stuff like, for instance, some teams like to score early, some score late in the match.