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All eyes will be on four-time winner Kauto Star when the tape goes up Kempton on Boxing Day, it's the same scenario as previous years in that he is a short priced favourite and it's double figures bar three;
Kauto Star - Needs no introduction. This four-time King George winner also has two Cheltenham Gold Cups, three Betfair Chases and two Tingle Creeks in the bag. Usual partner Ruby Walsh is sidelined, his reappearance at Down Royal turned out to be what looked like a workmanlike performance but he will have come on a ton for that run and he will be raring to go come Boxing Day. Hard to beat. 2.3
Long Run - Only a 5yo, ex-French. Won here on Boxing Day last year (Feltham Novices Chase) in a time some 8 secs slower than Kauto Star's winning effort over the same distance. Dropped back to 2m at Warwick afterwards, when connections were deciding upon a tilt at either the RSA Chase or Arkle at the Festival. They opted for the former and Long Run finished a tired 3rd on ground which would have been the fastest that he had encountered. 2/1f for the 18 runner Paddy Power Gold Cup a few weekends ago, he disappointed with his jumping and ran out of petrol on the run in. Won a stack of races on the flat, left handed course at Auteuil in his native France and he has now disappointed twice at Cheltenham, so the theory that he does not want an undulating track may be the correct one. Must jump better and could do with some professional assistance in the saddle for me. 7.8 and Pricewised in Tom Segal's ante post preview today.
Imperial Commander - Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, Ryanair Chase winner and Cheltenham Gold Cup winner at the Gloucestershire track, this fellow can only boast two wins under rules away from Prestbury Park - at Newcastle in 2007 (Bog standard Class 4 Hurdle) and last time out in the Betfair Chase at Haydock (Won well). Form figures away from the Cleeve Hill track read 136P25U1. Has disappointed behind Kauto Star twice previously here now - in '08 he faded after the turn in (Explanation 'Muck in lungs') and last year he was hampered at the second fence and later stayed on through beaten horses to take 5th (Beaten over 60l). A cut which he received in his Haydock race has hindered his preparation and connections have yet to confirm his participation, however the fact that the Gold Cup winner is currently 9 to back suggests that enough people out there do not see him acting on Kempton's speedy chase track. Would be near enough favourite if this race was staged at Cheltenham. 9.0
Forpadydeplasterer - Smart 2 miler who won the Arkle at Cheltenham in 2009 and ran second in the Queen Mother Champion Chase there in March. Since his Arkle win his form figures read 2222222, to his credit the list of race winners include Albertas Run and Twist Magic. Has been tried twice over 2m4f and seemed to get home on both occasions, as with my comments towards Barbers Shop in the race last year - it is an easy-ish track to stay on and speedier horses tend to get trips at Kempton. Entered in the Lexus and will be attempting 3m for the first time in one race or the other, according to trainer Thomas Cooper. 14.0
Riverside Theatre - 6yo who ran well in his prep races last season but disappointed at the Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals (5th in Arkle, fell in Ireland). Of his seven wins to date, four have come at Kempton although he has yet to be tried beyond 2m4 1/2f, the trip he won over last time out. Subject of an ante-post move this week, his trainer Nicky Henderson also has Burton Port, Mad Max, Long Run and Punchestowns left in at this stage, so running plans have seemingly yet to be confirmed. 15.5
Sizing Europe - Former smart hurdler who won the Arkle in March and was runner up to Kauto Star at Down Royal on November 6th. Did not jump fluently that day and he was closely matched with a 152-rated animal in China Rock. Trainer Henry de Bromhead has been quoted as saying "We're leaning towards running him at Kempton" (i.e. Lexus is the alternative). Class horse on his day but probably had his chance to overturn Kauto at Down Royal and his run that day did nothing to suggest that he truly sees out staying distances. 17.5
Nacarat - Front running grey who acts well around here, with a Racing Post Chase (Handicap) win and second in his locker. Won first time up this season in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby (Race conditions worked in his favour) but then he disappointed slightly when finishing some 11 1/2 lengths off Imperial Commander in the Betfair Chase at Haydock next time. Wants good or good to soft ground according to trainer Tom George, however on the overall balance he has plenty to find with some of these. 21.0
Planet Of Sound - The same comments apply to POS as they did to Nacarat - he put in some creditable efforts last season but his reappearance at Haydock was a disappointment (9 1/4l away from Imperial Commander). Has a Haldon Gold Cup (Grade 2, 2m2f) and a Guinness Gold Cup (Grade 1, 3m1f) in his trophy cabinet and so versatile with regards to trip, however trainer Philip Hobbs had pointed to the ground for his Haydock flop, stating decent ground would be a "Big plus" at Kempton. 22.0
Of the others;
Burton Port (75) has an entry for the Welsh National at Chepstow on Dec 28th - a decision will be made when his new handicap mark is confirmed
Punchestowns (70) is hoping to get a prep run so his participation is apparently somewhat weather dependant
What A Friend (330) will proabably head to Ireland to defend his Lexus title
Albertas Run (70) ran flat at Aintree first time up and then took a horrible fall last time. He joins the queue of horses who want good ground.
Deep Purple (140) will only run here if the Peterborough at Huntingdon is abandoned for any reason
Catch Me (1000) and Tranquil Sea (310) are two of a whole list of horses who are entered up at this stage but who will defect on December 7th (Add Captain Cee Bee (200), Glencove Marina (320), Cooldine (190), Kempes (230) & J'y Vole (220) ).
Summary - A typically competitive look to the race on paper at this stage, with Kauto Star favourite to take the race for a record fifth time. His price is unlikely to change much between now and race time, especially with Pricewise having put the second favourite Long Run up today as a 7/1 win bet selection.
With 22.0 on offer and any number of these expected to come out of the race between now and race day, I would be tempted to take a price about Planet Of Sound as this is his obvious target and he could easily get his ground. If any of Imperial Commander (Injury), Forpadydeplasterer (Alternative engagement), Sizing Europe (Alternative engagement) or Riverside Theatre (Stable fully entered-up) come out, the selection's price can only go down. Throw in the fact that he is as low as 14/1 in a couple of places already and I think we could be cooking on gas come Boxing Day.
Recommendation - Back Planet Of Sound @ 22.0
Keep warm and be lucky
Kauto Star - Needs no introduction. This four-time King George winner also has two Cheltenham Gold Cups, three Betfair Chases and two Tingle Creeks in the bag. Usual partner Ruby Walsh is sidelined, his reappearance at Down Royal turned out to be what looked like a workmanlike performance but he will have come on a ton for that run and he will be raring to go come Boxing Day. Hard to beat. 2.3
Long Run - Only a 5yo, ex-French. Won here on Boxing Day last year (Feltham Novices Chase) in a time some 8 secs slower than Kauto Star's winning effort over the same distance. Dropped back to 2m at Warwick afterwards, when connections were deciding upon a tilt at either the RSA Chase or Arkle at the Festival. They opted for the former and Long Run finished a tired 3rd on ground which would have been the fastest that he had encountered. 2/1f for the 18 runner Paddy Power Gold Cup a few weekends ago, he disappointed with his jumping and ran out of petrol on the run in. Won a stack of races on the flat, left handed course at Auteuil in his native France and he has now disappointed twice at Cheltenham, so the theory that he does not want an undulating track may be the correct one. Must jump better and could do with some professional assistance in the saddle for me. 7.8 and Pricewised in Tom Segal's ante post preview today.
Imperial Commander - Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, Ryanair Chase winner and Cheltenham Gold Cup winner at the Gloucestershire track, this fellow can only boast two wins under rules away from Prestbury Park - at Newcastle in 2007 (Bog standard Class 4 Hurdle) and last time out in the Betfair Chase at Haydock (Won well). Form figures away from the Cleeve Hill track read 136P25U1. Has disappointed behind Kauto Star twice previously here now - in '08 he faded after the turn in (Explanation 'Muck in lungs') and last year he was hampered at the second fence and later stayed on through beaten horses to take 5th (Beaten over 60l). A cut which he received in his Haydock race has hindered his preparation and connections have yet to confirm his participation, however the fact that the Gold Cup winner is currently 9 to back suggests that enough people out there do not see him acting on Kempton's speedy chase track. Would be near enough favourite if this race was staged at Cheltenham. 9.0
Forpadydeplasterer - Smart 2 miler who won the Arkle at Cheltenham in 2009 and ran second in the Queen Mother Champion Chase there in March. Since his Arkle win his form figures read 2222222, to his credit the list of race winners include Albertas Run and Twist Magic. Has been tried twice over 2m4f and seemed to get home on both occasions, as with my comments towards Barbers Shop in the race last year - it is an easy-ish track to stay on and speedier horses tend to get trips at Kempton. Entered in the Lexus and will be attempting 3m for the first time in one race or the other, according to trainer Thomas Cooper. 14.0
Riverside Theatre - 6yo who ran well in his prep races last season but disappointed at the Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals (5th in Arkle, fell in Ireland). Of his seven wins to date, four have come at Kempton although he has yet to be tried beyond 2m4 1/2f, the trip he won over last time out. Subject of an ante-post move this week, his trainer Nicky Henderson also has Burton Port, Mad Max, Long Run and Punchestowns left in at this stage, so running plans have seemingly yet to be confirmed. 15.5
Sizing Europe - Former smart hurdler who won the Arkle in March and was runner up to Kauto Star at Down Royal on November 6th. Did not jump fluently that day and he was closely matched with a 152-rated animal in China Rock. Trainer Henry de Bromhead has been quoted as saying "We're leaning towards running him at Kempton" (i.e. Lexus is the alternative). Class horse on his day but probably had his chance to overturn Kauto at Down Royal and his run that day did nothing to suggest that he truly sees out staying distances. 17.5
Nacarat - Front running grey who acts well around here, with a Racing Post Chase (Handicap) win and second in his locker. Won first time up this season in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby (Race conditions worked in his favour) but then he disappointed slightly when finishing some 11 1/2 lengths off Imperial Commander in the Betfair Chase at Haydock next time. Wants good or good to soft ground according to trainer Tom George, however on the overall balance he has plenty to find with some of these. 21.0
Planet Of Sound - The same comments apply to POS as they did to Nacarat - he put in some creditable efforts last season but his reappearance at Haydock was a disappointment (9 1/4l away from Imperial Commander). Has a Haldon Gold Cup (Grade 2, 2m2f) and a Guinness Gold Cup (Grade 1, 3m1f) in his trophy cabinet and so versatile with regards to trip, however trainer Philip Hobbs had pointed to the ground for his Haydock flop, stating decent ground would be a "Big plus" at Kempton. 22.0
Official ratings of the market leaders
Kauto Star 190
Long Run 162
Imperial Commander 185
Forpadydeplasterer 167
Nacarat 158
Riverside Theatre 160
Sizing Europe 160
Planet Of Sound 163
Long Run 162
Imperial Commander 185
Forpadydeplasterer 167
Nacarat 158
Riverside Theatre 160
Sizing Europe 160
Planet Of Sound 163
Of the others;
Burton Port (75) has an entry for the Welsh National at Chepstow on Dec 28th - a decision will be made when his new handicap mark is confirmed
Punchestowns (70) is hoping to get a prep run so his participation is apparently somewhat weather dependant
What A Friend (330) will proabably head to Ireland to defend his Lexus title
Albertas Run (70) ran flat at Aintree first time up and then took a horrible fall last time. He joins the queue of horses who want good ground.
Deep Purple (140) will only run here if the Peterborough at Huntingdon is abandoned for any reason
Catch Me (1000) and Tranquil Sea (310) are two of a whole list of horses who are entered up at this stage but who will defect on December 7th (Add Captain Cee Bee (200), Glencove Marina (320), Cooldine (190), Kempes (230) & J'y Vole (220) ).
Summary - A typically competitive look to the race on paper at this stage, with Kauto Star favourite to take the race for a record fifth time. His price is unlikely to change much between now and race time, especially with Pricewise having put the second favourite Long Run up today as a 7/1 win bet selection.
With 22.0 on offer and any number of these expected to come out of the race between now and race day, I would be tempted to take a price about Planet Of Sound as this is his obvious target and he could easily get his ground. If any of Imperial Commander (Injury), Forpadydeplasterer (Alternative engagement), Sizing Europe (Alternative engagement) or Riverside Theatre (Stable fully entered-up) come out, the selection's price can only go down. Throw in the fact that he is as low as 14/1 in a couple of places already and I think we could be cooking on gas come Boxing Day.
Recommendation - Back Planet Of Sound @ 22.0
Keep warm and be lucky
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