Succesfull in betting

[morthill]

Hi all,

Read some very interesting discussions in the several forums here and finally decided to post some of my findings i have found in the years I have been trying to make a profit out of betting.

I have been working for a bookmaker as developer for livebetting products and developed several models for sports with which we compile odds. These models are the base for all odds offered. Furthermore all markets are compared to other competitors/BF throughout the event and odds will be adjusted to the market. The basic rule for a bookmaker is obviously to never put itself out of the market as that is equal to giving money away. This would basically lead me to the first rule of betting:
Don't bet unless you REALLY know what you are doing

It is simply impossible to win with betting unless you have a certain idea about loopholes in the market and have tested these ideas on historical data. I myself have come up with loads of stratagies thoughout the years but beating the margin of a bookmaker or the commission of Betfair is shear impossible, especially if stratagies are based on knowledge of sports. With the bookmaker that I work for less than 3% of customers are winning. And these customers will be cut. Winning against a bookmaker is impossible unless you only bet when a bookmaker makes a mistake. Thinking to know things about a match is not a base on which you will win money, bookmakers also know these things.

I have read a lot of strategies where people would trade on certain markets and then secure their positions in other markets. This is very difficult. Almost all Betfair markets are governed by robots and you can be quite sure that these robots are very accurate. All markets in a certain event are linked together and are purely based on calculated probabilities.

So let's talk about how you can win money. Obviously it is possible as a lot of people on this forum have experienced. But do look honest to your betting-history: if you have placed more than 1000 bets and you are losing.. Stop betting or change your strategy!.. You are nor going to win.

After years of trying I am finally winning money in recent years. For me these are the iron rules for betting:
- Never be depended on the money that you are playing with. This would increase the chance hugely that you play with fear and diminish your chances.
- Dont be fearful to have some risk on a certain market. Placing a 'stupid' bet to even books will ruin your margin on long term.
- As mentioned over and over again on these forums: Have your staking linked to your bankroll and stick to this. I can place 50 smart bets with a 1-pound stake and ruin all my efforts with an emotional 50-pounds stake.
- Stick to your strategy in bad times. It is impossible not to lose money sometimes even in a longer period. The winners are winners because they stick to their strategies in bad times.
- Don't let your life depend on your winnings or losing. Don't be over the moon when you have some winnings. See it as a game. Try to see it as monopoly money This attitude has helped me a lot. Although it is not always easy to not be a bit grumpy after a horrible betting-week.

Well, I guess I haven't told much news. It is just my story of betting..

[eggman]

Interesting post.

It is possible to beat bookmakers. I know because I've done it using a simple system in a particular area. The bookmakers weren't making a mistake as such, I just felt they were incorrectly pricing this particular area (maybe they were making a mistake, then!)

I generally agree with your iron rules, but don't link my staking to my bankroll. I'm often placing bets that are 0.25% of my bankroll, other times 50%. For me the size of the bet is determined by the sport, the liquidity of the market, the odds of the selection and volatility which is risk. But I bet inrunning, so it may be different for all you pre-race grinders .

[morthill]

bankroll

Hey eggman,

But if you stake 50% of your bankroll in one go.. isn't that similar to suicide? Even when the bet is really good? I can only imagine doing that with a cheating bet when the result is already decided Although I try to stay away from that type of betting

[kawasaki]

what you mean by ''and these customers will be cut''? theyr accounts will be restricted?
thanks for the post btw, always was interested in what is going on ''outhere''

[morthill]

cut

Hi,

Yes kawasaki, By cut I mean we limit customers that win, but only when they win by placing value bets. We don't mind people at all who win by placing average bets... We will get them in the end anyway. People that place smart bets will not be cut to 0% as their bets give us valuable information. People who place cheating bets are cut to 0%. Though will always receive their winnings. But each company works with different methods. Obviously I cannot tell you for what company I work.

Cheating bets is a category of bets with different aspects. Cheating may be quickly placing bets after points are scored, betting when there is an obvious mistake etc etc. Most bookmakers are very quick to detect these kind of punters. Though for example WillHill and bWin are very slow with cutting eventhough you are cheating. Well that is my experience.

Every betting company has a KYC, also known as Know Your Customer. Data is collected from each customer and in this way customers get tagged. Things to look out for example: Try to deposit through credit card rather than Moneybookers and companies like that. Don't deposit more then 2000 Pounds at once. Don't start staking high in your first weeks as customer. Give your account a bit of a rest the first few weeks as new accounts will be looked at much more rigidly. And so on, and so on.

If you bet with bookmakers just try to stay under the radar. Doing this is a discipline on it's own.

[Temujin]

I find it amusing the term "cheating bets"... Seriously, if a bookmaker offers odds, a punter requests them, and the bookmaker accepts them, there is no cheating involved.
A live game, points are always scored. In play betting is punter vs bookmaker. If the punter is quicker than the bookmaker, then good luck to them. And if they are quicker by such an amount that the bookmaker still hasn't caught up after the score, the request, and the confirmation, then that just suggests a shit bookmaker, not a cheating punter.

Seriously. With all the terms and conditions punters have to abide by to bet with these scammers, and somebody has the nerve to call punters cheats?

Apart from that, I appreciate your posts. But seriously, that one term actually pissed me off.

Bookmaker: Lazy immoral gutterscum who preys on the weak, hides behind legalities, and cries foul when somebody with an iq over 100 comes along and outsmarts them.

Seriously, if a bookmaker is trying to make a book and a punter comes along and accepts their bet, that should be the end of it. All this "winning accounts" bullshit is just that. Offer the odds, then complain when somebody takes them?

Bookmakers can GOANGTFCKD IMO......

[Mickey Pearce]

By cut I mean we limit customers that win, but only when they win by placing value bets.

morthill, good to have you on board educating the members on the inside world of the "auld enemy".

I would say that the above statement is not quite accurate IMHO. I would say that it is not only winners that are limited, but anyone who is regularly making bets of a particular kind (you know the ones I mean morty ), who will eventually be shown the door.

If this is all a mystery to some of you then, walk into your High Street bookie (any they are all the same when it comes down to it) Have a good look at the screens behind the counter (especially above, out of sight of the customers). They usually have one with all the bets they are trying to swerve that day or coming up soon. They will either have paltry limits on these selections and more often than not, have to phone through for permission to take your bet, which is usually refused, when they get to know your face.

There is no long term future in betting with the bookies (if you are a shrewdie) IMHO. If it wasn't for the exchanges I would have chucked this game years ago.

[ron]

Some great points and rules to go by, however i dont think i will use an online bookmaker as.

A. the over rounds are always in thier favour,
B. they wont allow me to back at good odds, then lay in-ruuning
C. Mickey pearce is correct in his appraisal of having bets with limits on, even i have come across this and that was for a £35 bet on a 10/1 shot about 18 years ago.

[J.S.]

Thanks for the post morthill, having worked for a bookmaker previously, I do agree with it.

It's all about perspective I suppose, if you're the bookie and lose out then the punter is a cheat, and if you're the punter then you've done your job well. I do agree with Temujin on that point, a bet's a bet and if accepted it must stand whether the bookie made a pricing error or not. Whichever bookmaker you worked for morthill, they were a damn sight better than my previous employers - where pricing errors were almost always covered by the palpable errors rule, and other such rules to insure against expensive errors! Now that's bloody unfair! In reality if you were a bookie you would note who is costing you the most and try to squeeze them out, but I think rules like this really take the mick. Basically voiding your bet after it was confirmed by both parties or settling at the 'correct' price. If you were hedging for instance, you would be screwed.

Trying to beat a bookie longterm is practically impossible unless you have a distinct advantage over them. Considering the resources & protection they have in this day and age that is very unlikely.

[morthill]

cheating bets

Hey Temujin, J.S and others,

I agree with the fact that it is more or less ridiculus to cancel bets because they were in the 'cheating' category. Well ridiculus,,, at least it is unfair. Although I am working for a bookmaker I cannot deny that over the whole bookmakers are scum indeed. But here I do have to note: that is business. The betting-industry relies on the fact that punters believe the story that they can actually win money. Basically the bookmaker has never any real risks. In the end they will always win. So point taken.. Stop betting with bookies unless you have some system or unless you arb or something..

You know what would be interesting:
Try to really hurt a bookmaker. But to do that you would need to place a lot of money on value-bets in a consistent way. I think the best would be to do this on inplay events as there are more opportunies there than pre-match and bookmakers can never respond in time.

What we would need to do is have a system that detects value bets by comparing odds to other sources (I can do that). Then have a programmer make a robot that places the bets (fed by the value-bets-detect-program) and then get 1000 accounts at the same time betting ...

Obviously this is nearly impossible to do and then bookmakers will defend themselves against these systems.

[Temujin]

I have bookmakers that value my business. They send me gifts even for being such a "valued customer".... Then, other bookmakers will cut me off within a day for my "betting habits"....

Seriously, I have no respect for any bookmaker that thinks I am better than them.... At the end of the day, that doesn't matter, but when they claim to be the "number 1 bookmaker", as most will do, I tend to have a good laugh, knowing that they are simply some geek that knows how to run a website, and nothing more. Most, are not a bookmakers asshole.

[gohbm]

another iron rule,
do not purchase any so call "winning strategy" from any site, that wouldn't help to win a single cent. Simple, if you really know any, you will keep to yourself than to share with others.