X Factor

[The Real Moaner]

I know it isn't a sport as such, and I know it isn't exactly going to enhance any credibility I have remaining , but I was wondering....

Does anyone trade the X Factor?

Ironically, it's what got me into trading!

[TRADER68]

I havent traded any of these type of markets,but as the wife and daughter watch some of these shows i have looked at the odd market while its been on.The results dont always go as the market would indicate from what i have seen.Thats not to say people dont make money on them.
Its a good excuse if someone catches you watching it though.

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

Yep they're perfect markets to trade, the markets overreact to the slightest things, plenty of mug punters happy to take any crap odds. What more could you ask for

[shadowninja]

You can bet on the mentor to win. Where else would I get the opportunity to lay Cheryl and Dannii at the same time?

A ninja sandwich.

[PFY]

You can bet on the mentor to win. Where else would I get the opportunity to lay Cheryl and Dannii at the same time?

A ninja sandwich.

Except that is equivalent to backing Louis and Simon, much less appealing when you put it like that.

[The Geek]

Except that is equivalent to backing Louis and Simon, much less appealing when you put it like that.

:Brilliant:YouRock

[taxbreaks]

Please can I just lay either one - don't want to be greedy

[shadowninja]

Except that is equivalent to backing Louis and Simon, much less appealing when you put it like that.

I guess you're a glass half empty kind of guy.

[Mickey Pearce]

These markets are OK if you like a bit of fun, particularly if you are a regular watcher of the programs involved. Not for going in heavy that's for sure.

They can and often do "move the goalposts" in order to generate interest from the general public.

This week in X-Factor, the rumour is that they have deliberately chucked out a few good singers so that they can "surprise, surprise" bring them back in again later on. This kind of thing can totally feck up your best laid plans.

Betfair have a regular blog for these "Special Markets". Have a gander before you make your bets.

http://betting.betfair.com/specials/xfactor/x-factor-2010-betting-twist-or-no-twist-these-three-will-go-041010.html

[The Real Moaner]

Interesting book percentages at the moment (95 - 92) due to the rumoured presence of the wildcards which is making this damn difficult to trade.

Signs are that the wildcard favourite isn't going to be included (despite being the favourite at Paddy Power!)

Always difficult to perform opinions pre show 1 as live performances can be so different and at the end of the day, the contest is little more than a "Who does Simon Cowell want to win" show, but I'm hoping it has the same volatility as recent series. There's usually at least one shock early elimination. (Last year was opening favourite being ditched in the bottom 2 around Week 4 despite Jedward trading at 1.01 to go!)

[The Real Moaner]

Immensley volatile Week 1 as you'd expect! Won't get that again, but with 14 acts performing next week you will still see some nice swings.

Pretty weird how the opening favourite can go to 5.7 during performance and then 4.7 after performance - shows just how manipulated the show is.

Thankfully the Wildcards came good. They came in at around 25 / 100 / 150 / 17.5 which, considering the book percentages were in the 95 - 92 range, would have been pleasing for layers!

Sadly, I have an awful feeling that the elimination market is likely to be voided - and I have a massive green there.

However - surely Katie has to be value at 10. There's a strong chance the judges will save, but who is ever going to vote for her?

[The Real Moaner]

At least the first elimination market wasn't voided - although I missed out by not trading it on Sunday.

It'll be interesting to see the Betfair markets for Week 2. Do they go for "To eliminate" or "1st elimination" and "2nd elimination". A "bottom 2" or a "bottom 3"?

A slight drift on the Winners market for Aiden since his performance whilst Matt has shortened.

I'll be honest - I'll be amazed if One Direction don't win. Not saying they deserve to, but they have the ideal fanbase, are competent enough singers and have Cowell's backing.

Also amazed at the price of Katie (Has no support - I was shocked she wasn't bottom bottom) and Mary (will stay around for a while, but has next to no chance of winning.)

Markets also seem more liquid than before so there will be hopefully be plenty of chances upcoming.

[The Real Moaner]

The biggest thing about the X Factor is that it's a popularity contest and not a singing contest.

So some of the prices for elimination look huge.

Katie at 10 is huge. The bounceback traditionally only applies to those with a fanbase and whilst her performance was not dreadful last night, she appears to be loathed.

Also, whilst John's performance was excellent, he is very easy to overlook and at 20, looks great value.

Same in the 4th elimination, where Katie is 16 and John is 20. I'd say they are strong contenders to be in the bottom 3, and if so, anything can happen if it is referred to the public vote.

And then there is Diva Fever who fail on both singing and popularity counts and are 16 to go first.

[Riggs]

There's been quite a bit of talk about people power coming in again against Cowel and votes going for Wagner. Currently 90's so might be worth a couple of quid if last years Rage Against the Machine effort is anything to go by.

[The Real Moaner]

I had a huge red on Wagner this morning but saw the papers and fearful of a Jedward II, I did level up at a small loss. However, I'm kicking myself I didn't pile in.