Draw No Bet

[Red Red Robin]

Hi Craig and any other RL fans out there. As you can probably guess from my name I am a Hull KR fan and I enjoy trading and punting on RL (as well as some other sports). I have recently been enjoying a fairly succsesful spell on the footie by utilising statistical analyses and some applied mathematics to find value bets in the DNB markets.

I thought I would try the same approach to RL using the draw as insurance (for the really risk averse punters/traders ) and see where it leads and also it will give TRM some company on here!

I will therefore post any value bets (as I see them) on here for observation/paper trading purposes, and see how it goes.

Any comments/questions welcome but please don't expect long answers as I am not in the same league as TRM when it comes to output

All the best

RRR

[Firkinelle]

Great RRR and welcome.

[Red Red Robin]

No Foolin

Hi

Hope today is not the wrong day to kickstart this but here goes anyway, these are paper trade advices as this is an experimental by product of one of my footie betting projects, anyone betting real money does so of their own volition, no guarantees offered or implied.

Remember it is value bets we are looking for, I will quote bookie odds (at the time of posting) as Betfair liquidity on the RL markets can be a bit thin.

Therse bets do not allow for the draw which is a rare (ish) occurence in RL but if wanting to account for it then an amount to cover stakes should be placed on the draw at the best price available. For the purposes of this excercise if the match ends in a draw it will be recorded as a loss.

First up

Crusaders v Harlequins - I have this as a comfortable win for the Crusaders and so do the bookies so there is no value here. NO BET

Rhino's v Bulls - Leeds have not had the best start to the season by their standards and Bradford can win this, being a local derby both sides will be going for it and at 5-2 Bradford are value. BACK BRADFORD AT 5/2. S JAMES & EXTRABET

GL

RRR

[The Real Moaner]

Not sure how I missed this the other day.

Maybe, I am spending too much time at work!

Anyway, welcome RRR. Anything to stop me from talking to myself has to be a good thing!!! And it will be good to get some opposing views.

Which I definitely have on the Crusaders v Harlequins match.

Now, I have greatly underestimated Crusaders this season and have not totally figured the reasons for this. Certainly, Michael Witt looks a good signing and they have a very god coaching set up, but I have an inherent objection to them being favourites in any game!

As for Harlequins, they have really improved as of late with a creditable performance against Bradford last week and a good fightback v Huddersfield which showed a team spirit that can be the all important factor when you are down at the bottom.

But the fundamental thing for me is the return of Rob Purdham for Quins.

It was Purdham's absence that made me back Quins for the Wooden Spoon and whilst he won't exactly solve the issue that Quins are very light (which plays into the hands of a big Crusaders side), Purdham will offer guile, creativity and leadership.

In fact, Purdham along with the likes of Jon Wilkin, Kevin Sinfield (and to a lesser extent Richard Whiting) are hugely underrated players. They are amongst the most intelligent RL players (on the pitch in reading a game I mean) but lack the elite athleticsm to make them superstars. But their work doesn't go unnoticed.

Add in my views on form and away factor (Although I need to do some analysis this weekend to see if 2009 trends have continued in 2010), and this looks like a Quins back for mine. But I've been getting things wrong a lot recently so we'll see!

Just a quick note on the draw. I am a huge draw backer but even I have to acknowledge the appaling value on non in play games. 56 games this year. No draws. Draw starting price is in the 20s. Now, I know that is the equivalent of tipping a 1.04 shot but for non SKY games, with no liquidity, I'm starting to resent having green on the draw in games!!! (SKY games are different due to trading opportunities.)

And the Thursday SKY game is Bradford v Leeds. I agree with the potential for value in Bradford. (Although the return of Lee Smith is a boost for Leeds and the possible return of Kevin Sinfield is also huge in offering Leeds direction.) The fact is the Rhinos displayed a lot of tenacity and heart last week against Wigan; traits that are all the more important in derby games.

So whilst I wouldn't advocate backing them, knowing what I know about SKY games, and how the odds drop if the favourites score the opening try, I may wait for that and then lay Leeds in the high 1.1s / low 1.2s.

As I always say. If a team is favoured, you expect them to score first. Does the first 6 points in a game which usually sees 40+ really deserve such an odds shift? I think not but again, am yet to analyse this in the 2010 season, but I can already think of 3 1.1 1st half reversals in the past month.

[The Real Moaner]

Bradford now 5 on Betfair.

[The Real Moaner]

(1) Brent Webb FULL BACK Brett Kearney (6)
(28) Lee Smith WINGER Dave Halley (1)
(3) Brett Delaney CENTRE Michael Platt (15)
(4) Keith Senior CENTRE Chris Nero (4)
(5) Ryan Hall WINGER Stuart Reardon (5)
(6) Danny McGuire STAND OFF Paul Sykes (3)
(7) Rob Burrow SCRUM HALF Matt Orford (7)
(8) Kylie Leuluai PROP Andy Lynch (10)
(14) Matt Diskin HOOKER Heath L'Estrange (9)
(16) Ryan Bailey PROP Nick Scruton (8)
(17) Ian Kirke SECOND ROW Elliott Whitehead (20)
(11) Jamie Jones-Buchanan SECOND ROW Jamie Langley (13)
(13) Kevin Sinfield LOOSE FORWARD Steve Menzies (11)

(12) Ali Lauitiiti SUBS Glenn Hall (12)
(19) Luke Burgess Wayne Godwin (14)
(9) Danny Buderus Craig Kopczak (18)
(24) Luke Ambler James Donaldson (22)

Leeds starting to get back to looking a very strong team. Sinfield is back which is huge. I want to get on Bradford - Leeds are too short but Paul Sykes at 6 is a huge handicap.

[The Real Moaner]

Leeds now 1.25 to lay!

[The Real Moaner]

I spent last year loving the draw. This year it collapses so much its ridiculous and should be laid.

[The Real Moaner]

Hmmm. I tried to back Bradford after the try. Forgot about it and then got matched as Leeds attacked. So I then traded out for a nice profit. But if I'd have left it, I'd have already had my biggest win of the year!

Still, £70 for 10 minutes work. I'll take it but I was so lucky.

[The Real Moaner]

Wow.

What a game.

6 to 1.6, out to 2(!), to 1.08 and then out to 1000!

Game ended up as a draw. Terrible value on the draw but my decision to cover at HT due to my risk averse tendencies looks good now.

[Red Red Robin]

The Long Good Friday

Well our first attempt was scuppered by the draw and laying Leeds instead of backing Bradford would have been a better option and one I will consider in the future, as the workings for this are from a Draw No Bet perspective on the footy, this would have been a scratch bet but as the draw in RL is so rare and the value so bad and there isn't a DNB market we will just have either have to take them on the chin, lay instead of back (which may be poorer value and is also subject to Betfair liquidity) or cover the draw (which in the long run is terrible value but you're glad you did it when there is a draw)

Bradfords price drifted out before Ko and but came in (see TRM's posts) during the match so a very nice green would have been possible for anyone trading ratherr than straight punting. :Kerching

And the selection process worked which I am happy with

Todays matches

Hull KR v Hull FC - A mother of a local derby and no bias here I have the Robins as value at evens so BACK HULL KR AT EVENS. VC/SJ/WH

Wolves v Reds - Although Warrington are flying high at the moment Salfords win against Hull last week shows they are capable on their day and the 9/1 standout with Stan James looks too tempting to leave so BACK SALFORD AT 9/1. SJ

Giants v Dragons - The Giants lost to St Helens last week so will be looking to bounce back quickly, however the Dragons are in form and defeated the mighty Robins last week here we have another value opportunity with a bet on the Catalans at 11/2 so BACK CATALAN DRAGONS. 11/2 Extrabet/5/1 SJ

Wildcats v Tigers - The Tigers tails will be up after a win against the Crusaders last week and are value at the 9/4 with the magic sign so BACK CASTLEFORD AT 9/4 LADBROKES.

Saints v Warriors Possibly the best match of todays fixtures and could easily go either way, although my RL head would say a Saints victory my betting head says leave this one alone as there is no value to be had backing either team so NO BET

GL

RRR

[Red Red Robin]

A Good Friday for the odds compilers

Well four out of four went down in flames yesterday, but that's value betting! Only the mighty Robins gave us any hope but unfortunately they couldn't get over the Hull line in the 2nd half. The reds went the way the odds suggested and there was no joy for the Dragons or the Tigers.

Will post up Monday's matches and see how it goes but for now we stand at -5 points

Enjoy the weekend

RRR

[Red Red Robin]

I don't like Mondays

TRM has posted an excellent preview so I will just post up the value bets as they come out on the numbers

Harlequins v Hull KR - BACK Hull KR @ 10/11 Sp Bet/SJ

Bulls v Crusaders - NO BET

Reds v Giants - BACK Salford @ 9/2 SJ

Warriors v Willdcats - BACK Wakefield@ 5/1 Boyle/PP/Bodog

Hull FC v Wolves - BACK Hull FC @ 11/8 SJ

Tigers v Saints - NO BET

Dragons v Rhinos - BACK Catalans @ 7/2 Bet Fred & Expekt

GL

RRR

[The Real Moaner]

TRM has posted an excellent preview so I will just post up the value bets as they come out on the numbers

Harlequins v Hull KR - BACK Hull KR @ 10/11 Sp Bet/SJ

Bulls v Crusaders - NO BET

Reds v Giants - BACK Salford @ 9/2 SJ

Warriors v Willdcats - BACK Wakefield@ 5/1 Boyle/PP/Bodog

Hull FC v Wolves - BACK Hull FC @ 11/8 SJ

Tigers v Saints - NO BET

Dragons v Rhinos - BACK Catalans @ 7/2 Bet Fred & Expekt

GL

RRR

RRR - Do you not use the exchange for some of these?

Catalans are currently 5.6 on Betfair although if you pay the premium charge, the others are probably worth backing at the bookmakers.

I would also urge caution on Catalans. They were down to 18 fit players on Friday, and really are looking like a one man team with Thomas Bosc. I also prefer to wait for the in play games.

[Red Red Robin]

Hi Craig

Yes I would use Betfair for anything that was a better price than the bookies after commission etc. but to keep things transparent and accountable should (ha) they turn a profit then I have quoted the best Bookie odds available at the time of posting, also liquidity can be thin on Betfair.

Regards

RRR

PS Great Blog write ups, keep em coming and well done on the GP