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It's only a few weeks until Cheltenham so I thought that I would take the opportunity to review a few of the Ante Post markets to see if we can find some good old fashioned value.
The Gold Cup does look to be a match between the mighty Denman and the classier Kauto Star barring accidents and the race is best left alone on that basis.
The Champion Hurdle is as open as I can remember one being. Question marks over how good last year's renewal was have been aired in recent weeks – Winner Punjabi, runner-up Celestial Halo and third Binocular have not set the world alight yet this season and as a result horses like Medermit and dual winner Khyber Kim are prominent in the market. The Irish will have Solwhit and Go Native as their big hopes and there is a chance (Albeit a small one) that the novice Dunguib will take on the more experienced horses rather than tackle the opening Supreme Novices. Triumph Hurdle winner Zaynar remains unbeaten over hurdles and he looks to be the best of the English runners although Triumph Hurdle winners had a terrible race until recent years (Katchit won both, Celestial Halo won Triumph / 2nd Champion). Looking at the prices, double figures about Celestial Halo does look tempting – his form figures at Cheltenham are 122 and you can probably forget about his last run in Ireland because of the soft / heavy ground. In hindsight he could not have afforded to give a horse like Khyber Kim 4lb on soft ground as he attempted to in December but on genuine good ground Celestial Halo is a different proposition. 23 is on offer and that looks huge. We just need a dry spell to collect as the price is bound to shorten come race day.
It is normally a good idea to see what turns up for the Champion Bumper rather than get involved in the Ante Post market (Some horses wait for Aintree, some for Punchestown) however I have been pointed in the direction of Araucaria following her win at Punchestown over Christmas. Charlie Swan apparently holds Lonesome Dove in high regard (4th that day beaten 30+ lengths) and Araucaria's trainer says she is the best he has trained. The horse has had 3 starts – winning two and finishing second on the other occasion (Winner For Bill is 7/7 under rules to date). It is always an open race but 14/1 (Ladbrokes are currently better than BF??!) looks worth an interest for a horse that could turn out to be very useful indeed. Dermot Weld has two horses at the head of the market and it is doubtful that both will turn up so 14 could easily be 6 or 7 on the day.
The final selection that I am going to put forwards today is another from the all-conquering Paul Nicholls' stable. In the RSA Chase hisInchidaly Rock is simply too big at 25/1 (Again, the BF market is quiet). There are doubts about this ones participation as he could be re-directed towards the National Hunt Chase (4m for Novices) but looking at the entries Nicholls has both Forest Pennant and Massasoit entered up for that event too, the latter would be a live contender based on his Saturday run at Sandown. Given that PFN was happy enough for Inchidaly Rock to take his chance in the recent Gold Cup trial rather than keep him in Novice company (Started Fav, fell when travelling very well), you would have to assume that he is well thought of. It would therefore be unlikely that he would tackle the 'Novices National' which is a race where anything can happen. He is only 14/1 in some places for the RSA and that looks more like it. Note that Denman and What A Friend have represented the stable in this race over recent seasons.
Summary
Celestial Halo @ 23 – Too big especially if the ground dries up to anything other than soft
Araucaria @ 14/1 (14 BF...) - The word is that she is something special
Inchidaly Rock @ 25/1 (25 for pennies on BF) - Overpriced and overlooked, cracking E/W
Good luck all
The Gold Cup does look to be a match between the mighty Denman and the classier Kauto Star barring accidents and the race is best left alone on that basis.
The Champion Hurdle is as open as I can remember one being. Question marks over how good last year's renewal was have been aired in recent weeks – Winner Punjabi, runner-up Celestial Halo and third Binocular have not set the world alight yet this season and as a result horses like Medermit and dual winner Khyber Kim are prominent in the market. The Irish will have Solwhit and Go Native as their big hopes and there is a chance (Albeit a small one) that the novice Dunguib will take on the more experienced horses rather than tackle the opening Supreme Novices. Triumph Hurdle winner Zaynar remains unbeaten over hurdles and he looks to be the best of the English runners although Triumph Hurdle winners had a terrible race until recent years (Katchit won both, Celestial Halo won Triumph / 2nd Champion). Looking at the prices, double figures about Celestial Halo does look tempting – his form figures at Cheltenham are 122 and you can probably forget about his last run in Ireland because of the soft / heavy ground. In hindsight he could not have afforded to give a horse like Khyber Kim 4lb on soft ground as he attempted to in December but on genuine good ground Celestial Halo is a different proposition. 23 is on offer and that looks huge. We just need a dry spell to collect as the price is bound to shorten come race day.
It is normally a good idea to see what turns up for the Champion Bumper rather than get involved in the Ante Post market (Some horses wait for Aintree, some for Punchestown) however I have been pointed in the direction of Araucaria following her win at Punchestown over Christmas. Charlie Swan apparently holds Lonesome Dove in high regard (4th that day beaten 30+ lengths) and Araucaria's trainer says she is the best he has trained. The horse has had 3 starts – winning two and finishing second on the other occasion (Winner For Bill is 7/7 under rules to date). It is always an open race but 14/1 (Ladbrokes are currently better than BF??!) looks worth an interest for a horse that could turn out to be very useful indeed. Dermot Weld has two horses at the head of the market and it is doubtful that both will turn up so 14 could easily be 6 or 7 on the day.
The final selection that I am going to put forwards today is another from the all-conquering Paul Nicholls' stable. In the RSA Chase hisInchidaly Rock is simply too big at 25/1 (Again, the BF market is quiet). There are doubts about this ones participation as he could be re-directed towards the National Hunt Chase (4m for Novices) but looking at the entries Nicholls has both Forest Pennant and Massasoit entered up for that event too, the latter would be a live contender based on his Saturday run at Sandown. Given that PFN was happy enough for Inchidaly Rock to take his chance in the recent Gold Cup trial rather than keep him in Novice company (Started Fav, fell when travelling very well), you would have to assume that he is well thought of. It would therefore be unlikely that he would tackle the 'Novices National' which is a race where anything can happen. He is only 14/1 in some places for the RSA and that looks more like it. Note that Denman and What A Friend have represented the stable in this race over recent seasons.
Summary
Celestial Halo @ 23 – Too big especially if the ground dries up to anything other than soft
Araucaria @ 14/1 (14 BF...) - The word is that she is something special
Inchidaly Rock @ 25/1 (25 for pennies on BF) - Overpriced and overlooked, cracking E/W
Good luck all
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