WTA Week 6

[mark]

Well off we go again with another week of crying on ciurt, hissy fits, broken service games and general tantrums oh yes bring it on

Pattaya Open Thailand and Paris Open GDF are the tournaments this week and I think they may well be a couple of trading chances today if I can locate a live feed.

Anna Chakvadetze V Jill Craybas - AC leads the head to head 3-0 but all of these were played when AC was top 20 in the world and looked a real star in the making. Ever since the incident where she and her father were attacked in their home she has slowly gone downhill and from a career high of 5 she is now down to 67 in the world and rather sadly looks only to be heading one way. Now today she pits her wits against American veteran Jill Craybas and while she is certainly no great shakes it is worth bearing in mind she reached the final here two years ago just narrowly losing out to Flavia Pennetta in 3 sets. Prices are AC 1.43 JC 3.25 Now while AC might win I cannot be taking her at that price seeing as though I have seen her play some right shockers against steady opponents in the past.

[mark]

Unable to find a live feed currently and always one of my rules are never to trade from just the scoreboard unless I am willing to let a trade run making it a bet. Now I am certain that AC will trade higher than 1.43 but do I break one of my rules? Am I that confident that I would be willing to let my lay of AC run the distance of the match? When you are unable to watch the match then you cannot gauge a players body language and are basically at the mercy of courtsiders, scoreboards operators etc.

[mark]

Anna Chakvetadze lost her first service game drifted out to 1.90 broke back, down to 1.50 held serve and has broken Craybas twice more and now has just won the first set 6-1 now no feed or not I think I am going to have to get involved as the only time Anna Chakvetadze should be this price 1.12 is if she is serving for the match.

[mark]

Another perfect example of market overreaction. Anna won the first set 6-1 as stated above and was 1.12 she then proceeded to lose the 2nd set and during the 2nd and 3rd sets was available at between 1.25 and 1.80 I think she may well have hit a high at 2.0 but not sure on that certainly 1.8 was available. Then she breaks Jill Craybas in the 3rd and final set and 4-3 to take a 5-3 lead so she is now serving for the match and her price???? yep you guessed it 1.12. That is why it pays to know tha players so you can form what you believe to be a correct price and react to what happens in tha market.

I am not explaining it very well but what I mean is AC was a silly price at 1.12 so early in the match as even if she would of broken Craybas early in the 2nd set her price would of still been around 1.07 mark as she had a break point and it still only went down to 1.09 so clearly the 1.12 was too low and it was pretty much a risk free lay. My only regret is that no live pics were available.

[mark]

Akgul Amanmuradova V Sabine Lisicki - Again the prices appear a little skinny on the German Lisicki she is available @ 1.21? Not for me once again looks like no pictures but I wont pretend to know a lot about her opponent I know she has played mainly on the ITF circuit has won a few titles on that is rumoured to have a decent serve along with fairly heavy ground strokes as you would expect from someone who is 6ft 3 tall but her movement is slightly cumbersome although Lisicki is not exactly lighting around the court. Lisicki is still a very unreliable performer yes she has the potential to be very good but she is not in the best of form and I would rather lay @ 1.20 than Back and my gut feeling is she may struggle against her opponenet to start with.

[rockaren]

well done mark

I had a sleep till now after last nights Super Bowl so I missed all tennis action this morning but I am ready now....just as you said must check if there are some live pics available.

BTW, Bellucci did a great job as I was expected

[mark]

well done mark

I had a sleep till now after last nights Super Bowl so I missed all tennis action this morning but I am ready now....just as you said must check if there are some live pics available.

BTW, Bellucci did a great job as I was expected

Do you think Bellucci is worth following this week? Gotta be honest I had never really heard of him much

[rockaren]

Do you think Bellucci is worth following this week? Gotta be honest I had never really heard of him much

Yes, I really think so. Monaco wasn't playing bad from start at all, it was Bellucci playing great...but as you see in 2nd set he lost 0-6 lol

6-2, 0-6, 6-4 looks like a WTA match .....

Who knows what happens to this young guy after he won an ATP tourney ? Now he is going to play at home in Brazil. I was impressed how great he can play so it is a warning for him.

[mark]

I will keep an eye on him.

[mark]

Once again Lisicki breaks serve and is 15-0 on her own serve and is trading @ 1.08???? Crazy totally crazy

[mark]

See now this is my point Lisicki is 5-0 up and still available @ 1.05 so basically if you had backed her 1-0 you have just watched her destroy her opponent winning another 4 straight games and breaking serve twice more yet all the reward for that is 3 ticks?? When else in the game could a player win 4 straight games including two breaks and just go down in price by 3 ticks?? If the unthinkable happens and Lisicki starts to go off form in the 2nd set her price will be above 1.08 in a matter of seconds.

Lisicki's opponent retired after losing the first set 6-0 and once again the reasons for having pictures is vital albeit less vital if you are laying at a small price as the potential loss is minimal but still if trading from the scoreboard then you would of had no idea that a retirement was imminent.

[rockaren]

Good for Lisicki backers they finished 1st set. With no live stream available I stay away from this tournament.

ATP is live now and from tomorrow WTA from Paris will be live i think.

[mark]

Paris is live tomorrow on Eurosport I am currently watching Tipsy in his tiebreak

[mark]

Well todays action starts around Midday UK time on Eurosport and I am guessing they are showing the main court which means its looks like missing out on the start of the first match on that court. Iveta Benesova v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - Now here we have IB who is in awful form not particulary happy on indoor hard courst up against one of the most promising players on tour and one who I think will be top 20 by the end of the year minimum. So far this year in competitive tennis she has beaten the players she has been expected to beat but fell against the slightly better players being beaten by Kuzzy and Ivanovic(although on the weekends showing I think she might beat Ana now) and that is the next step up for AP she needs to start beating the higher ranked players. Certainly Benesova does not look in very good form currently and can easily get down on herself during matches when things start going wrong her serve is likely to come under alot of pressure today and again under pressure it does tend to fold. One word is that Anastasia does sometimes start slow in her matches so she may well go behind to start with but I think a win is on the cards.

Melanie Oudin V Sorana Cirstea - Met just before the season started in the Hopman cup with Oudin a fairly easy winner I would not read to much into that match as it was a pre season tourney and one where getting match fit is the primary objective. What I would pay attention to is the fact that Oudin looks in better form she was impressive in the Fed Cup after being narrowly beaten in the frst round in the OZ open but a point to note is in all her matches this season she has started well by winning the first set. She was a revelation last year at the US Open but the one thing slightly worrying me is that she was an unknown last year but now players would of seen her game and know her strengths and weaknesses and she will not have that same surprise element this year. Cirstea looked a player to follow durin parts of last year, good serve, good groundstrokes but has not quite start this season how she would of liked. She has been based in Paris since the end of last year so should feel very at ease here and this match I think is a coin toss could go either way. I just favour Oudin but again it will be a wait until it starts before getting involved.

Patty Scyhynder V Virginie Razzano - Patty towards the end of last year looked so uninterested in tennis it was amazing just turning up week after week tanking getting the cheques and wandering off. She can find angles in games that no other player can spot and is a joy to watch but I just wonder about her enthusiasm for the game anymore? Razzano on the other hand had a magical spell during last year which got her to around 20 in the world rankings and while I feel that is a little high for her playing her normal standard she would beat Schynder I think 6-7 times out of ten meetings on Indoor hard. Head to head is 2-2 PS Wins were 5 years ago and Razzano's both were last year so are probably more relevant. The one thing putting me off is Razzano's form she has only won one game this year and lost a set to Daniella Hantuchova 6-0 for gods sake! Too tight to call this one it might just be a case of laying whatever player goes below 1.30 as they are both unreliable currently although Schynder more likely to tank.

[mark]

Obviously Betfair is currently unavailable as they normally are a few times a week and have timed it to perfection with the tennis now starting on television So I wander across to purple and see the liquidity for the Oudin V Cirstea match is £2,750! I guess Betfair know they can do whatever they like and treat people however they like as they basically have no competition.