How do you trade

[The Real Moaner]

Thought I might try to create some discussion on how people approach the football markets on Betfair.

Basically, how do you trade the football markets? Are you a goals scalper or a win predictor? If so, what do you use to make your predictions? Or do you do something else.

Like Horse Racing and Tennis, Football is one sport that can be relied upon to produce several market opportunities so it's a good one to learn.

My own strategy revolves back to the initial days of ST and the Correct Score trading methods that used to be discussed before people tried to sell their "systems".

Put simply, I know nothing about football but have long believed that there is the potential for profit in the Correct Score market, because you can approach this in a "Market trading" sort of way which does not rely upon any in depth football knowledge; although of course that would help.

My main strategy is to scalp 0-0 in 0.5 / 1 increments. The advantage of this is that it is a fairly linear progression. The main disadvantage is that if a goal goes in, you're out.

That said, there are ways to minimise the risk and any green that you build up early on can then be used more substantially if the price drops.

Indeed, the scalping green earned on 0-0 can then allow you to look to trade other prices. Generally the Premiership markets tend to be liquid enough to allow for trades whilst not being too liquid to disallow small trades.

So that's my method (in a nutshell!). What's yours?

[crowdog]

I have a couple really.
Firstly, I back under 2.5 on selected matches and get out after about 10/15 mins but the obvious quick goal that inevitably pops up does you in. You could wait for the price to come back in or double up when that happens cos the price will shorten quickly after reaching it's peak but if you get another quick goal it's squeaky bum time. Even though I'm very selective with my matches it's not my fav.
I prefer to back over 1.5 part way through matches (usually ones I can watch) when still at 0-0. Again be selective, you not going to be doing this with 2 teams struggling to score. Obvious advantage is a much greater price in games where goals are expected, disadvantage is your games to trade are restricted cos you want games that will produce goals but not early goals.

The more methods we can post between us the better and also, if anyone has any improvements they can add?

Stay safe people

[BruceLee1973]

My fav is under/over 3.5 goals but most of the time you just let the bet/trade run.

[Scalper]

If I think the game is a mismatch then I will back overs with the favourite to win 2-0 on the correct score market, I use this quite often.

Other than that I will put in some straight forward bets in the win markets, some I'm happy to let run depending how the game is going.

I sometimes look to lay the correct score late in the game if one team is really pushing for a goal, I don't do this very often.

[Cran]

I am testing many sports and markets (including soccer) at the moment to see if laying low odds is a viable strategy.

The theory being that if it drifts you green if it doesn't you don't lose much...

[Scumbag trader]

Find the value, back it, rinse and repeat . . . . .

[Manic Trading]

I have been playing with scalping 0-0 but don't like the loss verses the gain % if a goals goes in early, which will always happen regardless of what the stats say.

Having a look at scalping 1-0 on the fav instead as the odds go down just as fast as the 0-0. If your caught with a lay bet waiting to be matched and the fav scores early the odds will go up, yes I mean up cause the market thinks the fav will go on to score a few more goals. So you haven't lost all your stake, and if the dog scores you're in the same position if you were on the 0-0.

My only problem is when to stop trading. The 1-0 continues to drop until half time, but if I carry on trading, over time the stats suggest I will break even at best.

Can you expand on your exit strategies please The Real Moaner because I end up chasing losses which isn't trading anymore.

[The Real Moaner]

To be honest, I don't really have any exit strategies / plans when it goes against me other than to carry on doing what I do. If I had a better plan then I would do that to begin with.

If you act differently when it goes against you, it just shows that you are not confident in your initial strategy. Sometimes things will go against you, but the most succesful strategies balance the occasional red with a greater green.

[Emkayracing]

If you act differently when it goes against you, it just shows that you are not confident in your initial strategy

Could you explain this statement?

At the top of the thread you are talking about scalping 0-0 and using the profits to trade other scores. Surely if you are only playing with 'Green' achieved from scalping you would have to have a reasonable strike rate with the scores that you go on to cover or the whole thing would be a wasted exercise?

[jibiko]

To be honest, I don't really have any exit strategies / plans when it goes against me other than to carry on doing what I do.

That's an interesting approach.
Not in the classic trading way (define entry point - exit point)
and not so trader friendly.
But it can work also? A modern way then?
If there is no exit point is it still trading?

My main strategy is to scalp 0-0 in 0.5 / 1 increments.

We can assume from the above statement that it is not
backing or laying, but is it trading?

The scalp technique and increments pointed, dictate that there are entry and exit points.
So it is still trading, and in a classic way also.
Untill the trader finishes his job or a Price Shock come.

Some notes from various books again on this (excuse me):

Mature understanding of and respect for risk is the hallmark of the best traders.
They know that if you don't keep an eye on risk, it will set its eye on you.

Most traders worry about four primary risks:

- Drawdowns: Strings of losses that reduce the capital in their trading accounts,
- Low returns: Periods of small gains in which one does not make enough money to live on,
- Price shocks: Sudden movements in one or more markets that result in a large unrecoverable loss,
- System death: A change in market dynamics that causes a previously profitable system to start losing money.

Price Shocks

A price shock is a sudden or very rapid movement in price. All traders who wish to stay in business would be prudent to keep the reality of price shocks in mind as they settle on an appropriate risk level for their accounts.
Anyone who wants to earn high returns runs an equally high risk
of experiencing a high drawdown or even
a total loss of his or her entire trading equity if a large price shock occurs.

And here comes the right money management to the rescue.

Is it still enough though?
Maybe yes?
Maybe no?

p.s.1 Some random thoughts, nothing special, just to keep the conversation going.

The more methods we can post between us the better and also, if anyone has any improvements they can add?

p.s.2 This thread, I think, takes the shape of an opening discussion about trading strategies, fundamentals and building of them, maintaining and improve them.
I am more than happy to participate in a conversation of this nature.

[jaybee2]

I trade/scalp the horse racing market,
I get my selctions from the Racing post naps table.
I back the selection in each race about 15 mins before the race time and take about 4 or five ticks, then move onto the next race.
If there is more than one selection in a race I take the favourite.

[taxbreaks]

- Price shocks: Sudden movements in one or more markets that result in a large unrecoverable loss,

Price Shocks - I have been trading (trying to ) for about a year and when I first started I would feel I had things under control and suddenly wham! The price moved either up or down several ticks after a large bet (rather than a trade?) was placed - have come to the conclusion sometimes you win and sometimes you lose and hopefully it evens itself out. I used to panic and immediately trade out if on wrong side - tend not to now as quite often there may be a bounce.

Irish markets where less liquidity seem (to me) to have more pronounced sudden movements - least it appeared like that to me yesterday - did at one point vow never to trade these markets ever again!

They are very scary when you first start but believe you need to be philosophical about these movements.

[The Real Moaner]

That's an interesting approach.
Not in the classic trading way (define entry point - exit point)
and not so trader friendly.
But it can work also? A modern way then?
If there is no exit point is it still trading?

Apologies. I'm not sure my initial post was all that clear with hindsight.

What I meant to say is that whilst I trade in 0.5 increments on 0-0, I have no specific strategy to deal with the green that I acquire on 0-0. If I have a big green on 0-0 and I lose it through a goal, then I just accept that and move on and continue.

Generally speaking though, I look to trade out green at the changes of odds intervals. (E.G. 10, 6 or 4.) Obviously there is a bigger difference between 10 and 10.5 than 10 and 9.8.

However, I will also pay attention to my book overall. For instance, if I have a 3-3 lay at the same time as a big green on 0-0 and there is an amount of cash to be matched before my 3-3 back, I'll be more likely to lay off 0-0 at the current price because obviously a goal would have a double effect. Equally, if I have a back of 2-2 waiting to be laid, I'm more likely to not trade out on 0-0.

Football is something that I am playing with my eyes, so any other thoughts would be great.

[jibiko]

I am playing with my eyes, so any other thoughts would be great.

match odds market
unders/overs markets

why not to start eye-playing with these?

the Correct Score trading methods

This correct score trading is too complicated for my little brain.
Sorry, can't help you with this.
But, I strongly believe that there are infinite ways to make money in the sports markets.
Where there is a will (& a market) there is a way.
Maybe in this market too.
Maybe yes.
Maybe no.

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[smudger78]

I trade/scalp the horse racing market,
I get my selctions from the Racing post naps table.
I back the selection in each race about 15 mins before the race time and take about 4 or five ticks, then move onto the next race.
If there is more than one selection in a race I take the favourite.

Hi,

I'm just starting out and reading as much as i can on different approaches/plans/systems. How long have you been following this sytem and how successful have you found it?

Cheers

Smudger