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Le Beau Bai heads the market at 5.9, although he has done nothing on the track to warrant such a short price. Yes - he has won at Chepstow (Last time out, off top weight) and Yes - he won a small uncompetitive handicap at Warwick over 3m5f in February but this is a hugely competitive contest and I would be looking to take him on.
The Tother One ran well enough at Cheltenham last time out when he and the eventual winner The Package drew well clear. The Package was entitled to win on revised terms from their meeting at Wincanton weeks earlier and so for The Tother One to only get beat a length it must be a big positive for his chance in this race. 7.8 is fair if not attractive and AP rides for the Champion trainer.
The general consensus towards Halcon Genelardais is that he stays all day on soft ground and so he will be at home here. Beaten 7l in this race last year when conditions were similar, he has only had three races since - at Cheltenham in January when he was beaten by Joe Lively and then a Gold Cup flop and Betfair Chase fourth (Both races were won by Kauto Star). A rating of 157 makes life difficult but he does have a touch of class and plenty of stamina. Chance. 11.5
Silver By Nature has been off the track since he won at Carlisle on 1st November. He has been risen 13lb for that effort and on his previous runs he looks likely to struggle here. 15 looks short.
Operation Houdini is being backed and has some decent form in the book, the best of which is arguably a win at Galway in October (2m6f). Yet to tackle extreme distances, he has obvious stamina question marks but heavy ground and a left handed track are definite positives. 14
Flintoff, Coe, Old Benny and Gone To Lunch are all handicappers who may have their day. I would side with the Trevor Hemmings-owned pair of Coe and Old Benny on official ratings from these four.
Kilbeggan Blade was on many a Grand National list in April (Pulled up) but ground as always is key and he gets his favoured soft going here. He slammed the subsequent Grand National winner Mon Mome by 4l over hurdles in January when giving him weight. Read what you like into that. 50 is very appealing.
Ballyfitz could be a forgotten horse as well. He ran unbelievably poorly in the Hennessy but re-appeared quickly at Sandown and won well over hurdles. Soft ground and a test of stamina are his requirements so he should enter calculations here, although how he will fare off 144 is open to question. 34 looks too big, though.
Nozic travelled up in his last Newcastle race but faded when asked a question, on the overall balance of his form 18 looks skimpy.
Kornati Kid should make the shortlist on his Hennessy run, the handicapper has actually lowered him 3lb and he is off 145 here. 23 is a fair each way call.
Of the others, Hello Bud has not won off 142 before and struggled at Aintree last time, Iris De Balme won the 2008 Scottish National but the ground is totally different here and he has been off the track for an age, Dream Alliance is one to keep an eye on after a recent hurdles spin and Mon Mome had better start now if he is to win, while Miko De Beauchene (Form),Cornish Sett (Handicap mark) and Zacharova (Form) should not trouble the judge.
Summary Coe, Kilbeggan Blade and Ballyfitz stand out as being too big for me. Dream Alliance should be noted in the betting too.
Lets hope it passes the inspection
The Tother One ran well enough at Cheltenham last time out when he and the eventual winner The Package drew well clear. The Package was entitled to win on revised terms from their meeting at Wincanton weeks earlier and so for The Tother One to only get beat a length it must be a big positive for his chance in this race. 7.8 is fair if not attractive and AP rides for the Champion trainer.
The general consensus towards Halcon Genelardais is that he stays all day on soft ground and so he will be at home here. Beaten 7l in this race last year when conditions were similar, he has only had three races since - at Cheltenham in January when he was beaten by Joe Lively and then a Gold Cup flop and Betfair Chase fourth (Both races were won by Kauto Star). A rating of 157 makes life difficult but he does have a touch of class and plenty of stamina. Chance. 11.5
Silver By Nature has been off the track since he won at Carlisle on 1st November. He has been risen 13lb for that effort and on his previous runs he looks likely to struggle here. 15 looks short.
Operation Houdini is being backed and has some decent form in the book, the best of which is arguably a win at Galway in October (2m6f). Yet to tackle extreme distances, he has obvious stamina question marks but heavy ground and a left handed track are definite positives. 14
Flintoff, Coe, Old Benny and Gone To Lunch are all handicappers who may have their day. I would side with the Trevor Hemmings-owned pair of Coe and Old Benny on official ratings from these four.
Kilbeggan Blade was on many a Grand National list in April (Pulled up) but ground as always is key and he gets his favoured soft going here. He slammed the subsequent Grand National winner Mon Mome by 4l over hurdles in January when giving him weight. Read what you like into that. 50 is very appealing.
Ballyfitz could be a forgotten horse as well. He ran unbelievably poorly in the Hennessy but re-appeared quickly at Sandown and won well over hurdles. Soft ground and a test of stamina are his requirements so he should enter calculations here, although how he will fare off 144 is open to question. 34 looks too big, though.
Nozic travelled up in his last Newcastle race but faded when asked a question, on the overall balance of his form 18 looks skimpy.
Kornati Kid should make the shortlist on his Hennessy run, the handicapper has actually lowered him 3lb and he is off 145 here. 23 is a fair each way call.
Of the others, Hello Bud has not won off 142 before and struggled at Aintree last time, Iris De Balme won the 2008 Scottish National but the ground is totally different here and he has been off the track for an age, Dream Alliance is one to keep an eye on after a recent hurdles spin and Mon Mome had better start now if he is to win, while Miko De Beauchene (Form),Cornish Sett (Handicap mark) and Zacharova (Form) should not trouble the judge.
Summary Coe, Kilbeggan Blade and Ballyfitz stand out as being too big for me. Dream Alliance should be noted in the betting too.
Lets hope it passes the inspection
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