Assessing over/unders bets

[LFCBADBOY]

I would just like to open a discussion on what data you use to analyse whether to take a bet or not with the over/under football goal markets.

For me personally, I look at the following details:

1. Amount of games the home team have gone over/under that amount of goals
2. Amount of games the away team have gone over/under that amount of goals
3. The number of head to head meetings which have gone over/under that amount of goals

Does anybody use any different stats, or any additional information?

Would be interested to hear,

Cheers

[Ted]

BadBoy,
it's all about 'the price' being right. Look at the sat prem games stats, jot down what price high/low U think is value, then look at tha prices
to see how your guestimates shaped up.

I have a downer on low prices, either direction, we still have to
pay 'comm' an absolute 'killer'.

Keep a log of your 'spadework' after a while, you'll be aware if
price is out of line.

[LFCBADBOY]

Thanks for the reply Ted.

That is exactly what I do, I work out the probabilities using stats to determine whether a value bet exists.

Was just wondering if anybody thought there are some crucial stats I am missing in my analysis.

I suppose you can over analyse things, so I guess what I am using works just fine

[Ted]

'Politics' will soon rear it's head, as season nears end. Those just above
'trapdoor' seek to shore up for safety, with 9 bodies behind ball, it's all
good fun, as most then go low, but it's the price, anything can go wrong
ha ha.....

We will get a few of the usual 'Italian job' draws........

[jamiedavies02]

Personally I don't consider how many previous games have gone over/ under. My stats include home for and against and away for and against for the past 60 or so games.

[xtrt]

Why bother with boring stats when the spread betting firms have already done that?
Unless you know something they don't, just take the total goals quote from sportingindex and work out the O/U prices.
For instance if their total goals spread is 2.5-2.7 you can safely use the mid-price of 2.6 and this would equate to U2.5@1.89, approximately.

[Roeman2446]

Hi
How does U2.5@1.89 equate to 1.89?