world cup

[MartinS_NFA]

Hi i was wondering with the world cup coming up that if anyone has any tips for watching these markets. I have noticed that there are opportunities to trade just seeing if there any pointers?

[Scotty_73]

I am no expert on Cricket but have been trading it now for a while, there are many factors in each game which can be used to get a better understanding.

Pitch - each pitch has its own characteristics, some start out totally flat (good for batting team) then rough up later (good for bowlers). Here you might want to back the team batting first. Other pitches are the opposite, they start out fierce and calm down as they get bowled on.

Batsmen/Bowlers - who is in form and who isnt, top order batsmen who arent in form might be worth laying if they bat first. same with bowlers


You can also try just picking a price under evens (2.0) and laying both teams at this. works better for T20 due to bigger price swings but can still work on ODI if team starts really well then has a collapse in the middle of innings

ODI price swings are not as wild as T20 so a 4 or a 6 will see a price move but not a huge amount. Wickets will always give big price movement except at end of innings. So laying the team batting first can prove profitable especially if pitch favours bowlers. I would only hang around for first 10-15 overs though as if team starts really well in this period then wickets wont move price as much as they will still have good run rate.

use sites like cricinfo.com to get prematch info and form guide, then try to get pitch information and weather conditions then try to use this to form an opinion of whether there is high chance of early wickets, then put your trades in accordingly

Team who wins the toss will usually see price come in a bit so might give option to put in a lay bet depending on whether they chose to bat or bowl

[Temujin]

Yeah, can't give much more advice than the obvious here.

Watch the first couple of balls and if it there is obvious swing that is often enough to move the market a heap. Have seen a test match move 30 cents in the first over of an innings purely on ball movement alone.

Good thing with cricket is there is generally some good momentum swings. Wickets are the obvious point of call. No wickets, and the batting team generally shortens, then wicket, price jumps. The earlier the wicket, the bigger the move. Obviously first wicket falling first ball effects more than the first wicket falling in the 40th over. The more wickets in hand for longer, the less impact of a wicket.

Recommendation for cricket is to simply lay as a team is batting. Put a few lays in as the overs pass, trade out on a wicket. Easy as that.
The idea behind this is to bet smallish, and as you continue laying, your average odds decrease meaning you will green up on a wicket.
This way, you don't need to predict anything more than a wicket will happen.
Trade out on the wicket regardless of profit level. Then do again.

Problem with cricket and this strategy, is trains do happen. Very rare, but be aware that it is possible to go a game where 1 team just does not get a look in.

The other thing with cricket, in general, is that teams don't generally like to be too aggressive when chasing. They like to time their innings and will generally finish in close to their allotted overs. If you look at Aus v Eng so far, both teams have performed badly. But no matter how bad the 1st innings score, the team chasing have generally made a meal of it at some point, so wickets are still big as a team chasing and pace setting, can still have good pressure applied and screw things up.

So if you are just starting out, I would recommend you take a figure that isn't life changing if you lose it. Judge the conditions early, and then lay the batting team for maybe 20% of the figure you have set aside that you are able to lose (if a train should happen). A few overs later, lay them again, and then do that until you reach your figure. Trade out on a wicket.
You will get a feel of how often to lay judging on how much a teams price is moving. Obviously don't do this every ball, as the odds wouldn't have moved and you may then have to wait for a wicket, which may bring the odds back to under where you layed anyway.
Maybe go every 4 overs? assuming the price is moving, either that, or 10 cents price come in?
Either way, that is the easiest way without prediction to at least be involved in the game from a trade point of view.
Not saying you will make money, but the theory is strong.

[MartinS_NFA]

excellent posts all the info that i needed. hugely appriciated i have played some markets but couldnt find were i would have my edge.

thanks again!

[Scotty_73]

take game right now as example... PAK are the most incosistent team and biggest cheats obviously but with the right conditions and right mental approach they have a devastating bowling and batting line up. Game against NZ, PAK ticking over just about 4 runs per over.

reaches 41st over and they are only 4 wickets down... I decide to back them as I know that they have wickets to spare and can go for it...the result amazing...they have smashed about 70runs in 40 balls. price came from about 2.4 to 1.4.

[mark]

Also be aware that 300 on a sub continent pitch alot of the time can been seen as a par score, whereas 300 on pitches elsewhere can be seen as a very formibable target.

[MartinS_NFA]

there is alot more to the cricket than i expected lol. I think once i get ma head around the conditions of pitches and they way the market reacts to different games 20/20 ODI. I think i will stay away from the test cricket for now as the prices move slowly and the game takes for ages lol.

thanks again lads for the help!

[Charles49]

Love to lay the favourite in these games.
Australia have a formidable record in this format of the game.....back them at $7 or better and enjoy the ride in as they shorten up come finals time.

[MartinS_NFA]

yeah charles on the 20/20 games a while back only played between 10-15 games i just layed the fav and then i profited which was successful. But i am looking for an edge and would like to have a better understanding of what i am trying to achieve. it was mostly with big odds on numbers because the market has some crazy swings if it goes against you it will not travel too far in.

[Charles49]

The World Cup has always had its share of upsets so if you want an edge lay the short price favourites and then use a predetermined method to achieve what suits you personally.
Take the WI v Kenya game for example.
West Indies are $1.05 so you may regard that as a non event. But if you layed WI for $100 your liability is just $5. If the price went out to $1.10 and its quite possible this will happen then if you traded out you could back WI for a nice little profit.
You may want to scalp these type of games just by laying at 1.05 and trading out at $1.06...again its your decision and you can do whatever suits your style.
You could just let the bet ride in the hope that this will be one of the upsets in this years World Cup.
Personally I would try and get as much info about the game as possible before placing a bet. Match conditions, player injuries, history between these two teams, importance of the game in terms of positioning in WC ladder just to mention a few.
A close mate of mine does his own blind markets and that works as an edge for him. He also has a calculator at hand and works out the likely team score in advance as the game progresses so he can anticipate what the odds might be at the end of an innings.
Some punters have their own rules they stick by religiously such as not betting on any of thes games unless a direct tv feed is available for all of the match.
One day games dont experience the same degree of swings as 20/20 games do so you generally have a lot more breathing space to make decisions.
Everyone is different in their approach to these games so if you want an edge do your research thoroughly, assess the odds on offer,determine the profit you want to achieve and just as important determine how much you are prepared to lose.
Having done all of that and more then you may be on the way to achieving a small edge in your favour.

[eddierivers]

i would only add that take care in backing south africa as they have a reputation for choking come the business end of the world cup. they will be my back to lay for the world cup. remember they were beaten by bangladesh in one of the icc competitions which now would be no disgrace. as a proud english man i hate to say it but the aussies are still the best at the 50 over game and are looking good against england at the moment. be wary of pakistan when they are down thats when they play there best.

good luck throughout the competition whatever way you play.

[mark]

Sri Lanka for me. On some of the low and slow pitches that will be being played on they are masters along with India of keeping the middle overs run rate high against slower bowlers/spinners and this is the part of the game where I feel Eng/SA and AUS will be found wanting.

[CJG1979]

I'm keeping Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh onside. South Africa will look good until up they play a team from the subcontinent they are overrated because of their pace attack but it won't do much on these pitches. Aus can't play spin at all, England are knackered and are poor in these conditions. India are obviously good in these conditions and with the draw set up for them to make the final, you could do no worse than take the 4.1 trade on bf as they will be shorter come quarters.

[Knight Rider]

[Firkinelle]

How much commission will Betfair lose on a void 36 million market because of the India/England tie?