Using the HT/FT market for match odds profits

[Emkayracing]

Last weekend's Premier League fixture list threw up a number of HT/FT beauties which were easy enough to profit from as straight bets. A couple of others saw major odds changes in play;

Blackburn 1 Fulham 1
Samba 30 Dempsey 56
Attend: 23759 Half-time: 1-0 Potential H/A

Everton 0 Newcastle 1
Ben Arfa 45
Attend: 38019 Half-time: 0-1 Looked set for A/H

Stoke 1 West Ham 1
Jones 48 Parker 32

Attend: 27028 Half-time: 0-1 Another A/H chance

Tottenham 3 Wolverhampton 1
Van der Vaart pen 77 Fletcher 45
Pavlyuchenko 87
Hutton 90
Attend: 35940 Half-time: 0-1 An actual A/H

West Brom 3 Birmingham 1
Dann og 51 Jerome 15
Odemwingie 59
Olsson 69
Attend: 23062 Half-time: 0-1 The second A/H


I traded the Stoke v West Ham game and it was not surprising to see Stoke come into 2.5 for plenty of money early in the second half. Having dutched H/A and A/H at 60 and 30 respectively the lay of Stoke at around 6/4 brought in a nice profit;

1) 0-1 HT
2) 1-1 3 mins into second half. Stoke go 2.4-2.5 in match odds
3) Laid Stoke
4) Match ends 1-1
5) Stoke lay is a winner

The later games brought further opportunites (Which I missed ) at West Brom and Spurs. The price for Fulham would have also shortened nicely in their Blackburn game, whilst presumably Everton would have been a fair amount shorter than the 'Dutched' price in-running to beat Newcastle as well.

I have knocked up a quick file which is uploaded at the following address;

http://www.mediafire.com/?sc4cpq21odm8ih0

Will have a look at the Man C v Chelsea game next for this, the strike rate appears to be better when both sides start the game at odds-against

Be lucky

[MykalD]

1) 0-1 HT
2) 1-1 3 mins into second half. Stoke go 2.4-2.5 in match odds
3) Laid Stoke
4) Match ends 1-1
5) Stoke lay is a winner

What would your exit strategy have been had either West Ham gone 0-2 up and/or gone on to win the game?

[Emkayracing]

What would your exit strategy have been had either West Ham gone 0-2 up and/or gone on to win the game?

Mr BC, how the devil are you?

To be honest a 0-2 scoreline in-play would have meant 1 of 2 things;

1) A loss across all markets, or

2) Potential to cut some losses via the CS market

The thread for this game was here;

http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=3163

For me the match was a big winner. The CS market was very geared towards Stoke once they came out and grabbed an equaliser - the 2-2 just about halved in price at 1-1 (Backed 19.5), match odds was a massive winner from the HT/FT being 'Covered' and Kenwyne Jones bagged Stoke's equaliser to bring home the bacon in the last goalscorer market too.

Should you want to look at ifs, buts and maybes you can - however to quote myself from an earlier thread;

"Be wrong / Be right, make money or leave it behind"

We all play the game differently - for example some people want the comfort of knowing that most eventualities are covered when the first whistle blows. I prefer to be more selective about the matches I trade and therefore I can ride out the good & bad days.

This thread is certainly not a 'This is how you do it' write-up, more 'Look at the possibilities of decent returns from average stakes - Caution - High Risk'

Have a great weekend

[MykalD]

Mr BC, how the devil are you?

Is my style really that obvious? :-) I have been good.

To be honest a 0-2 scoreline in-play would have meant 1 of 2 things;

1) A loss across all markets, or

2) Potential to cut some losses via the CS market

OK, good to know.

We all play the game differently - for example some people want the comfort of knowing that most eventualities are covered when the first whistle blows.

Yeah, I tend to fall into that category.... :-(


This thread is certainly not a 'This is how you do it' write-up, more 'Look at the possibilities of decent returns from average stakes - Caution - High Risk'

Have a great weekend [/QUOTE]