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I can't believe we are one third of the way through the season already! :WTF
It sure feels like it started just yesterday!!! Anyway, opinions should be almost fully formed by now but I don't feel I've got a full handle on the year so far due to other factors. When it's the Cup I'll probably use the weekend to do some research but before that we have Round 10 on Monday.
A quick word on this as this round is by far the most different in the competition. RL is an intense, physical sport yet they are expected to back up within 72 hours for the next game! Crazy and the players really aren't fans.
However, the show must go on - but some teams can make major changes to their starting thirteen so watch out for that. Who can ever forget this fiasco. http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugb...ue/3813425.stm
Anyway, some quick thoughts although I'd make sure to check team news before the game in case you need to reverse your position.
Harlequins v Hull KR - 2.00 PM
Harlequins' game at Crusaders was called off so the Quins will have had the benefit of a prolonged rest before the match. Quins can also recall their influential captain Rob Purdham and his return is a massive boost. This would have made them a great selection against Crusaders. But we should note that Purdham can do little to boost Quins' lightweight pack and I feel that the market is grossly overestimating the impact of not having played on Thursday and home advantage.
If Hull KR had won on Friday, then I could understand Quins' price but KR know this game is a must win for them and they will be keen to bounce back from what would have been a heavy blow in losing to Hull FC at home.
One of my main beliefs in RL trading is that the better team should always win no matter where the game is played and no matter the conditions. Frankly, I'd expect 1.5 maximum for HKR and therefore I am currently finding large value with the side from Humberside.
Bradford v Crusaders - 3.00 PM
Ironically, the market does not appear to be factoring the increased rest into the Crusaders price with Bradford at 1/3. Now, I feel I am way off on Crusaders this year. I stil think they are the weakest side in the competition; made up of NRL rejects who surely can't have gelled together. I expected Brian Noble to mould them into a competitive team eventually but not this quickly. Complicating matters is the fact that there are strong rumours that Bradford's coach Steve McNamara is set to depart to accept the post of England coach and one of the rumoured contenders to replace him is Brian Noble.
Given that I have a poor handle on the Crusaders, and the fact that the Bulls may be emotionally spent after their capitulation against Leeds (and have one of the thinnest squads in SL), I think the value may lie with the Wrexham based outfit, but I certainly wouldn't look to get involved heavily.
Salford v Huddersfield - 3.00 PM
I was particuarly high on Salford coming into the year. They had defeated the top 3 teams in 2009 and expected them to kick on with Stefan Ratchford in particular set to reach new heights. Sadly, they appear to have regressed and have an inexperienced backline and a lightweight pack, whilst Ratchford appears to be the poster boy for underachievement currently being out of the side for form reasons.
Huddersfield, for mine, are the RL equivalent of Ronseal. I believe they are a solid, professional outfit who lack the X factor to become a top, top team but are a good enough side to do well consistently and beat up on lower sides, and new signing Danny Brough appears to have slotted in seamlessly to scrum half. However, Salford did manage to beat the Giants last year.
The absence of Brett Hodgson however means that there could be some value with the hosts, but it could also refocus the Giants and ensure another victory for the Yorkshire based side.
Wigan v Wakefield - 3.00 PM
Wigan proved their class against Saints on Friday. They are a professional outfit with great go forward and finishing ability in the backs. Why then do I see value in Wakefield?
Well, I think the market is underestimating the Wildcats. 1.2 to lay? Too low. Wakefield are a good side who I saw value in pre-season and continue to see now. Now, their late kick off and victory against Castleford on Friday reduces their appeal in my mind as the mental side of RL especially when there is such a short turnaround is so important, but Wakefield are plenty good enough to win this game. Will they? Probably not. Are they better value than the odds suggest? Definitely.
Hull v Warrington - 3.15 PM
This is a difficult game as I can come up with valid reasons for backing either party.
Warrington are the better side and coming off an easier game. They have Lee Briers returning, but might that be a disadvantage in that Briers can demand so much from other players with his game. They also have one or two injury worries and I'm not sure how they match up against Hull.
Hull also have a few injury worries but should remain focused despite their impressive victory over Hull FC with their golden oldies providing a newfound sense of professionalism.
At first, I fancied Wire. Strongly. However, the more I think, the more I lean to Hull.
Castleford v St Helens - 3.30 PM
Both sides will be out for two points after disappointing performances and losses in derby matches on Friday. I can't warm to Sants this year. I don't rate the #7 Kyle Eastmond (although he does impress me more and more) and think the side has been put together in an awful fashion by an insipid coach. That said, they remain a good team with some outstanding players.
Castleford are another side who aren't impressing me. However, I don't think I've seen them enough to have a fully informed opinion. They did look impressive on SKY at home to Warrington and Hull KR but managed to conspire to lose those games, as they did against Wigan despite holding their own in the first half.
For odds reasons alone, I like the look of laying Saints - but this is similar to Celtic v Bradford.
Catalans v Leeds - 5.30 PM SKY Sports 1.
I'll post more on this later.
It sure feels like it started just yesterday!!! Anyway, opinions should be almost fully formed by now but I don't feel I've got a full handle on the year so far due to other factors. When it's the Cup I'll probably use the weekend to do some research but before that we have Round 10 on Monday.
A quick word on this as this round is by far the most different in the competition. RL is an intense, physical sport yet they are expected to back up within 72 hours for the next game! Crazy and the players really aren't fans.
However, the show must go on - but some teams can make major changes to their starting thirteen so watch out for that. Who can ever forget this fiasco. http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugb...ue/3813425.stm
Anyway, some quick thoughts although I'd make sure to check team news before the game in case you need to reverse your position.
Harlequins v Hull KR - 2.00 PM
Harlequins' game at Crusaders was called off so the Quins will have had the benefit of a prolonged rest before the match. Quins can also recall their influential captain Rob Purdham and his return is a massive boost. This would have made them a great selection against Crusaders. But we should note that Purdham can do little to boost Quins' lightweight pack and I feel that the market is grossly overestimating the impact of not having played on Thursday and home advantage.
If Hull KR had won on Friday, then I could understand Quins' price but KR know this game is a must win for them and they will be keen to bounce back from what would have been a heavy blow in losing to Hull FC at home.
One of my main beliefs in RL trading is that the better team should always win no matter where the game is played and no matter the conditions. Frankly, I'd expect 1.5 maximum for HKR and therefore I am currently finding large value with the side from Humberside.
Bradford v Crusaders - 3.00 PM
Ironically, the market does not appear to be factoring the increased rest into the Crusaders price with Bradford at 1/3. Now, I feel I am way off on Crusaders this year. I stil think they are the weakest side in the competition; made up of NRL rejects who surely can't have gelled together. I expected Brian Noble to mould them into a competitive team eventually but not this quickly. Complicating matters is the fact that there are strong rumours that Bradford's coach Steve McNamara is set to depart to accept the post of England coach and one of the rumoured contenders to replace him is Brian Noble.
Given that I have a poor handle on the Crusaders, and the fact that the Bulls may be emotionally spent after their capitulation against Leeds (and have one of the thinnest squads in SL), I think the value may lie with the Wrexham based outfit, but I certainly wouldn't look to get involved heavily.
Salford v Huddersfield - 3.00 PM
I was particuarly high on Salford coming into the year. They had defeated the top 3 teams in 2009 and expected them to kick on with Stefan Ratchford in particular set to reach new heights. Sadly, they appear to have regressed and have an inexperienced backline and a lightweight pack, whilst Ratchford appears to be the poster boy for underachievement currently being out of the side for form reasons.
Huddersfield, for mine, are the RL equivalent of Ronseal. I believe they are a solid, professional outfit who lack the X factor to become a top, top team but are a good enough side to do well consistently and beat up on lower sides, and new signing Danny Brough appears to have slotted in seamlessly to scrum half. However, Salford did manage to beat the Giants last year.
The absence of Brett Hodgson however means that there could be some value with the hosts, but it could also refocus the Giants and ensure another victory for the Yorkshire based side.
Wigan v Wakefield - 3.00 PM
Wigan proved their class against Saints on Friday. They are a professional outfit with great go forward and finishing ability in the backs. Why then do I see value in Wakefield?
Well, I think the market is underestimating the Wildcats. 1.2 to lay? Too low. Wakefield are a good side who I saw value in pre-season and continue to see now. Now, their late kick off and victory against Castleford on Friday reduces their appeal in my mind as the mental side of RL especially when there is such a short turnaround is so important, but Wakefield are plenty good enough to win this game. Will they? Probably not. Are they better value than the odds suggest? Definitely.
Hull v Warrington - 3.15 PM
This is a difficult game as I can come up with valid reasons for backing either party.
Warrington are the better side and coming off an easier game. They have Lee Briers returning, but might that be a disadvantage in that Briers can demand so much from other players with his game. They also have one or two injury worries and I'm not sure how they match up against Hull.
Hull also have a few injury worries but should remain focused despite their impressive victory over Hull FC with their golden oldies providing a newfound sense of professionalism.
At first, I fancied Wire. Strongly. However, the more I think, the more I lean to Hull.
Castleford v St Helens - 3.30 PM
Both sides will be out for two points after disappointing performances and losses in derby matches on Friday. I can't warm to Sants this year. I don't rate the #7 Kyle Eastmond (although he does impress me more and more) and think the side has been put together in an awful fashion by an insipid coach. That said, they remain a good team with some outstanding players.
Castleford are another side who aren't impressing me. However, I don't think I've seen them enough to have a fully informed opinion. They did look impressive on SKY at home to Warrington and Hull KR but managed to conspire to lose those games, as they did against Wigan despite holding their own in the first half.
For odds reasons alone, I like the look of laying Saints - but this is similar to Celtic v Bradford.
Catalans v Leeds - 5.30 PM SKY Sports 1.
I'll post more on this later.