DVWooly Diary - trading horses pre race

[WhyAlwaysMe]

That's a real shame.

[dvwooly]

too be honest its not the first time i have done it!! ... i get bored do a bit of in running and blow my bank.

maybe my gambling is verging on an addiction/problem as when i get into things i usually do them 110% ... who knows but it is stopping now and the only sure fire way for me not to do it is to remove AGT from my system. Its a great program as others have said, pre race i can make some cash consistently using just 1 line on a graph and no prices, it is so simple but for me it is boring.

I suppose i gamble for the fun of it and for the thrill of it.

I will top up my bank by £100 on January 1st and start over again with my place betting using my robot which i basically set and forget.

Anyway enough of my self sabotage!!

I think that i need to look at one other aspect of the selection method to remove some of the ridiculous selections that it is spitting out ... some of the horses even a blind man can see arent going to place.

It would be helpful if i could get the Racing Post historical cards to back test but i can use Sporting Life although this might not be a 100% comparison.

I will still post up updates .........

[mixed trader]

sorry to hear you blew your bank,we,ve all done it mate,id take a week or so off from betfair,come back all fresh and raring to go.
cheers
terry.

[dvwooly]

i will still be running my place betting.

I have it running today with 5% stakes ... im up 64p!

should be £18 but thats the way betting goes!

[dvwooly]

for those of you interested in the line i use pre race .....

60 second moving average SMA on a 180 second chart from 10 minutes to the off ....... thats all you need all along with a simple price line.

it takes a little while to get used to it as it is usually around 6 minutes to go when the signal is at its strongest

if they are both going in the same direction follow the trend when the MA hits through 0 and out when it crosses back.

suprisingly simple yet very very profitable ..... you hit the massive drifts and plunges very early 99% of the time and can easy get for or 5 ticks when the price is bouncing between support and resistance

[dvwooly]

for those of you interested in the line i use pre race .....

60 second moving average SMA on a 180 second chart from 10 minutes to the off ....... thats all you need all along with a simple price line.

it takes a little while to get used to it as it is usually around 6 minutes to go when the signal is at its strongest

if they are both going in the same direction follow the trend when the MA hits through 0 and out when it crosses back.

suprisingly simple yet very very profitable ..... you hit the massive drifts and plunges very early 99% of the time and can easy get for or 5 ticks when the price is bouncing between support and resistance

let me know how you get on with this.

i had some screenshots but deleted them ... the SMA is better as it is a lot smoother than the EMA which creates a lot of noise

I think i may be able to send the cloud of this strategy if anyone wants it.

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Thanks dv .

One good thing is blown banks are much less of a problem than not being profitable in the first place so if you can sort that out you will be OK.

[custard]

suprisingly simple yet very very profitable ..... you hit the massive drifts and plunges very early 99% of the time and can easy get for or 5 ticks when the price is bouncing between support and resistance

Do you really believe that such things as "support" and "resistance" actually exist in the trading of horses in races ? It's easy to see the "raison d'etre" for these concepts when dealing with the trading of stocks, shares, etc because there is a huge capital investment which can be protected by manipulating the price. This is not the case in sports betting.

Nobody draws a line in the market and says that he is determined to maintain a price to his dying breath. The market moves and that is all there is to it. Prices are offered and taken and, when they are no longer available, the market moves on.

I have stated many times that graphs in sports trading are completely worthless. They never tell where the market is going, only where it has been. To suggest that there is a way of using them which is "very, very profitable" is wrong.

A blown bank does nothing to support your "system".

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

Afraid I'd have to agree with Nigel, you need to learn why and when money enters the market to pick out direction of the market not look at it's past performance. Not saying graphs don't have their place as there are few 'pro' traders I know who don't have a peep at them to gauge certain things.

As for it being 'easy' to win money trading the nags,, think I'd be a very rich man if I had a pound from every losing trader who convinced they'd be a winner if only they could stop one thing or another.

[WhyAlwaysMe]

let me know how you get on with this.

i had some screenshots but deleted them ... the SMA is better as it is a lot smoother than the EMA which creates a lot of noise

I think i may be able to send the cloud of this strategy if anyone wants it.

Yes I'd be interested if you can manage it as don't find it so easy setting these graphs up. But if not I will learn.

I certainly need something as my current way is all noise and no signal .

Custard my reason for wanting graphs is Mikey B has them and they look cool on his vids .

Doubleback has proven they work in running too .

[dvwooly]

custard you are controversial and it is always nice to have someone to liven up a discussion.

I have reloaded AGT for the 17:50 in response to Custard's comment

I have a screenshot of the 17:50 ........ my red line creamed in the money

5.2 to 4.6 and still droppping on Port Charlotte at 0 secs
5.9 to 6.6 and out on Stetson before the off.

Give it a try and see if it works.

I have saved a screenshot but dont know how to upload if it isnt a web photo!

[custard]

Graphs are just representations of figures. Geek's in-play function shows exactly the same thing in a different way. Simple observation of a grid will show which prices are rising and which are falling, again same thing, different display. None of these three methods is able to predict future price movements.

I have never seen MikeyB claim that his success is due to graphs.

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Nobody draws a line in the market and says that he is determined to maintain a price to his dying breath.

You do see that happen if a price has moved too far and has become value. You can see the layers come out on mass if a price has got ahead of itself.

[dvwooly]

Yes I'd be interested if you can manage it as don't find it so easy setting these graphs up. But if not I will learn.

I certainly need something as my current way is all noise and no signal .

Custard my reason for wanting graphs is Mikey B has them and they look cool on his vids .

Doubleback has proven they work in running too .

I have PM'ed you

[custard]

custard you are controversial and it is always nice to have someone to liven up a discussion.

I have reloaded AGT for the 17:50 in response to Custard's comment

I have a screenshot of the 17:50 ........ my red line creamed in the money

5.2 to 4.6 and still droppping on Port Charlotte at 0 secs
5.9 to 6.6 and out on Stetson before the off.

Give it a try and see if it works.

I have saved a screenshot but dont know how to upload if it isnt a web photo!

I don't seek to be controversial. Nothing that you have written supports your theory about future movements. Any screenshot you provide will only show previous changes. What you have described happens in almost every race.

When you have devised a graph strategy which will tell about future price changes, please get back to me. Meanwhile, please forgive me if I pass on your offer this time.