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[jibiko]

fookme publications strikes again




Copyleft All Wrongs Reversed, wtf? movement



FREE online book

Write YOUR own book.

Feel free to cannibalize this thread in every possible way.

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p.s.1 don't forget:

Nobody's born pro.
Everyone was noob in the beginning.

p.s.2 fookme publications is a collaborative effort from
people around the world to provide free online books.
Joint movements: wtf? movement
wtf? movement is fighting for the same cause.
For more information for the wtf? movement visit the site of wtf?

soccer trading
for noobs

Intro

Chapter 1 - Do your homework, please

Chapter 2 - Hardware

Chapter 3 – Software

Chapter 4 - Info & Statistics

Chapter 5 - LIVE

Chapter 6 – Scoreboards

Chapter 7 – Tactics

Lay the Draw (link1 link2)

Laying the draw at HT

1+ Goals

1+ Goals at HT

Overs/Unders

under / over 2.5 market

Chapter 8 - Q & A link

p.s.3
This is just a draft.
Feel free to edit everything.
Write it down and it will be done asap
or better;
write every chapter or part of it that you want
and we can redirect the link to your postcount number
(e.g. check above)

TT_st ver 0.1.6

[jibiko]

[Timstertoo]

A strategy that's been around for quite some time and seems to be still working if you select your matches right is the lay the draw strat.

It's a really simple strategy.

You lay the draw.

If there is a goal you trade out for a green screen.

Job done.

Now there are a couple of things you have to make sure of for this to be profitable.

1. you need a clear favorite for the odds to jump high enough
2. the lay odds should be UNDER 5.0
3. I believe that the traders who do this, or at least claim to, profitably trade out for a red screen if it's still 0-0 at either 70th minute or the odds hit 2.0


Further match selection can be done by checking the last results of both teams making sure there are little to none 0-0's there and and the over 2,5 is 1.8 or lower.

This system pivots around greening up after a goal is scored by the favorite so if you stay in afterwards because you think they will keep this lead or even score more don't blame the system if you start losing money.

If the dog scores and the odds don't change enough to get green, stil trade out for a small red. It's a marathon, not a sprint.

I've tried this system a couple of times and am going to do a lot more of it in the future as I think it holds merit. I do believe though that match selection is essential and just jumping on every game with a draw lay under 5.0 will prove to be a loosing strategy. Same goes for taking odds over 5.0 as one team is clearly stronger.

Word to the wise. I've had a nice green screen on a couple of occassions and messed it up by getting in again, or not getting out being a bit of a greedy sod.

So if anyone has anything to add, change or correct on above please do so, I'm probably the last person on this forum you want to follow blindly.

[BettingSherlock]

If you MUST do the LayTheDraw then please keep a record of the available price on 1+ goals. You may be surprised which one is actually more profitable.

[Timstertoo]

If you MUST do the LayTheDraw then please keep a record of the available price on 1+ goals. You may be surprised which one is actually more profitable.

I will, thanks for that.

[Wednesday 13]

Yep, that's the same thing I wanted to propose when reading your post; and not only 1+, but also 2+ (over 1.5) and 3+ (over 2.5); namely, the main flaw of Lay The Draw strategy, beside goalless match, is situation where underdog scores first; in those cases, odds for draw not only will not rise, but will shorten up significantly, if traders evaluate that favourite has capability to equalize, but not to completely overturn the result; so, my experience shows this strategy works best when both teams are balanced and there is no clear favourite in the match

Additional improvement of this strategy may be laying the draw at HT (naturally, if the game is draw at HT); in that case, draw should be available to lay at odds between approximatelly 2.50 and 3.00, which significantly lowers your liability, and therefore increases profit (or decreases loss, if you're forced to exit for red screen); furthermore, rise of odds if goal is scored in second half is much bigger, as there remains less time for team who conceded goal to equalize (for the same reason, when laying the draw prior to kick-off, if the goal is scored early in the game, before 10th minute, odds for draw will not rise enough even in the match of balanced teams, as the other team has plenty of time to try and equalize).

The "beginners" approach to this strategy says that correct score 0-0 should be backed as insurance bet, to cover the initial liability in case of goalless game; though, it eats a lot of profit, so I usually leave it alone...

Back to the remark of Betting Sherlock, for recording odds on total goals; as I said, in game where there is a clear favourite/underdog, goal scored by underdog will mess up your trade on the draw; so, if you believe there will be goals in such a game, then better back overs (1+, 2+, or even 3+, depending what is your opinion), and those odds will shorten, nevertheless who scored a goal, favourite or underdog, and you will be able to green up (or you may lay the unders, and odds will rise up after a goal).

Laying the draw produces usual profit of about 10 to 20 % of liability (i.e., if you layed for a liability of 100 units, in most cases you can hope for profit of 10 to 20 units; for example, laying at 4.0 and backing at 8.0, givces about 15% profit); at 1+ goal, you can get usually 5 to 12% profit, in over 1.5 goals market you can hope for about 15 % profit (but just in case that first goal is scored somewhere before 35 minute; otherwise, you have to wait for second goal, which is not trading but gambling, and it's flaw of that strategy; it can be improved to some extent by backing over 1.5 not at kick-off, but after 10 to 15 minutes, if there is no goal, odds will rise to an acceptable level) and in over 2.5 goals, it can go to over 30%, but again, with at least one goal scored by 30th minute. Though, backing 1+ goals at HT (if there is no goals in first half, obviously), will reward you with 25 to 35% of profit, if there is at least one goal in second half.

As Betting Sherlock proposed, keep the records of odds movement for these several similar markets, and after some time, you will be able to define which one most suits your needs and trading style, and is applicable to each specific event.

[jibiko]

[Temujin]

Am I wrong in thinking this thread started out as a thread full of sarcasm?

[jibiko]

fookme publications is a collaborative effort from
people around the world to provide free online books.

[jibiko]

Chapter 5 – LIVE

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Bwin
Betfair
Bet365
rojadirecta.com
myp2p.eu
Footy Doctor
ATDHE.net
http://www.iraqgoals.net/ (kindly provided by Rod Flanders)

p.s.1 check for time delays
p.s.2 the above photo is kindly provided by Knight Rider

[jibiko]

Chapter 4 - Info & Statistics

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soccervista

xscores

tip-ex

sportpress

http://uk.soccerway.com/

[Knight Rider]

info & statistics & current scores

http://xscores.com/

[taxbreaks]

http://www.tip-ex.com/

[jibiko]

[jibiko]

for all da soccer lovers in da house

http://www.football-lineups.com/

cause soccer is about tactics too.
You can find and other interesting things in there