Originally posted by Public Enemy
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If you can get a live tv picture or video feed it's usually way ahead of the scoreboards. Can you get tennis radio? That might be cheaper/easier.
Often the ATP and bet365 scoreboards update 10 secs later than the tv picture, sometimes even after the next point has been scored.If you want more luck... Take more chances!
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BACK THE FAVOURITE
I only use this strategy on ATP matches.
I start by going to the betfair tennis site.
http://form.tennis.betfair.com/tennis
There you can find all the latest prices, liquidity and basic stats on the players.
I look down the list and find a match where I have reason to believe the favourite will win. I have to feel confident about the match and have a good reason for thinking that way.
Next, I go to the ATP site.
http://www.atpworldtour.com/
I get a head to head of the players involved and look at the stats. It's important to know the surface they are playing on. I check both players stats for the year on the surface and then check their serve/return stats for the year. If the stats confirm my initial thoughts about the match then I will back the favourite.
1. Only ATP matches.
2. Check the matches on betfair's tennis site.
3. Choose a match where you're confident of the outcome.
4. Go to the ATP website.
5. Check the head to head of the players. The more recent the match the more relevance it has, particularly if it was on the same surface as the upcoming match.
6. Check the player's stats for the year and look for their records on the appropriate playing surface.
7. Check their serve and return stats for the year. Even just looking at the won serve % will give you an idea, although bear in mind that games on clay will reduce the effectiveness of a strong serve.
8. If you feel that the stats confirm your view of the outcome then you can go ahead and place the bet.
It's important to note that despite all the stats, having a knowledge of tennis is the main thing. I look at matches and straight away get a feel for a particular match, so don't use this strategy unless you're sure.
Also, you have to feel that there's value in placing the bet, I mean, you could back Roger Federer in his first round match against his world number 873 ranked opponent Canot Volli, but you're not going to be getting any value when Fed is priced at 1.03.
I will point out that my in game trading when using this strategy is entirely down to TradeShark, so I'm certainly not taking any credit for this, and a lot of you will already know the strategy.
If the match is going with serve and the favourite is 0-40 or 15-40 down then I lay off half the bet. You can wait until the break is confirmed but then you're just losing more ticks, so I just get out and if the favourite pulls back to deuce I back him again.
So, for example, I lay off £50 of my £100 stake when the favourite is 15-40 down, but if he comes back to deuce then I back him for £50, taking the total stake back to £100.
If, however he loses serve then there's a couple of options.
1. Switch and back the other player. You'll have to increase your liability when you do this to make sure you have enough green on the other player to make switching worthwhile.
When you do this you need to feel confident that the player you've backed is capable of holding his serve long enough to take the set.
2. Wait. You don't have to commit yourself to switching straight away, especially if you feel that the favourite is more than capable of breaking straight back. If you've been following the match closely (which you should of course) then you hopefully have some idea. Maybe the favourite has already had a couple of break points against his opponent and you believe it's likely that he'll break serve, then you should probably wait and see what happens in the next game before switching.
I never switch more than twice, and I only trade the first set using this strategy. You can switch as many times as you want of course, but you will keep increasing your liability when you do that, and if you're not careful you'll end up with red on both players. So unless you're confident when using this strategy I wouldn't recommend switching more than twice.
If you've switched twice but the match is utterly unpredictable, especially when it's getting close to a tiebreak then just hedge out. It is possible to switch during a tiebreak, but I wouldn't recommend it unless you're wearing a nappy!Public Enemy - charismatic and mysterious.
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WAIT FOR THE BREAK
This strategy has a lot in common with the back the favourite (BTF) strategy.
I only use ATP matches and follow the same process with this as I do with BTF.
What I'm looking for here is two players who are quite evenly matched. If your knowledge of the game is good then you'll know what matches are likely to be close, but otherwise just look at the odds on the betfair tennis page.
If the favourite is 1.7+ then the match could be a qualifier.
As with BTF you need to go through the process of checking the player stats. If both players hold serve more than 70% of the time then for me that's good enough.
If you're looking for value then this strategy isn't it. Whoever you back is going to have much shorter odds when you back them than they had at the start of the match. The upside is that it's a safer method than BTF.
Simply wait for one of the players to break serve and then back them. THAT'S IT!
If the strategy starts to go wrong and the opponent looks like breaking back, then you need to pretty much follow the guidelines layed out in BTF.
Lay off half the liability if it looks like your opponent is going to break back, but don't make a decision about switching too early, don't forget that a break back just means that the match is now going with serve again, so the set is still very much in the balance.
If all goes well then you can green up at the end of the set, but don't expect huge profits from this because as I pointed out, a lot of the value has already gone before you backed.
If things didn't go so well and the opponent managed to get the break back and there were no further breaks then you need to either commit yourself to backing the player who you believe has the best chance of winning the set (in effect, changing your strategy) or once the score reaches 6-5 in the set hedge out for the loss.
You'll also get some matches where you don't even get an opportunity.
1. Set goes to tiebreak without any breaks.
2. Player serving at 4-5 down gets broken, so loses the set 6-4.
It's a strategy that I've very rarely used so hopefully someone else can add some points that I may have missed.
Patience is needed for this one.Public Enemy - charismatic and mysterious.
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Chapter 4 – Info & Statistics
loading.........................................
atp
wta
tennis.wettpoint
tennis.betfair
ATP live scoreboard
tennisprediction
tenniscorner
tennistalk
tennisinsight
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Last edited by Knight Rider; 9 November 2009, 09:04 AM.
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