soccer strategy - criticisms?

[pingu]

Hey, ive never traded soccer, and have barely traded at all. ive traded tennis so far with micro stakes (£2 bets). im up so far. ive learnt an awful lot in what ive done so far though, and it seems to be an ever learning process.

ive thought of what seems like a profitable situation for soccer trading, so i thought i would post it here and get some criticism. Please tell me what you think of it honestly. ill be trying it out to see how things go with microstakes, when i get the time. (i work full time atm).

The idea is to place 2 bets pre-game and another one during the game (sometimes). the 2 bets you place are lay under 1.5, and back 0-0. amounts? well decide your amount for laying under2.5, for example ill be using £2 bets on this to test out my strategy. 0-0 bet depends on what odds you are getting. for this i use an arbitrage lay and back calc. using the following odds from the current odds of a game waiting to be played: lay under 1.5 odds: 6.2. 0-0 CS back odds: 21.

the back stake would be £0.59 for this.

This way, if the game remains goalless, then im guaranteed a profit. job done. If the game has a goal, then i back the under1.5 at a higher price. because the odds should move out.


there is one downfall to this, as there will be with anything. if the first goal is scored say in the 87th minute... the odds for under1.5 wont be good enough for me to green up on. at this point, ill red up instead and admit a small loss.


To help prevent losses from this, im going to game select. This is one thing im struggling on, as im not really aware what odds should be for certain markets. What odds do you think on the under1.5 market for example would indicate that both teams are high goal scorers? or basicly, that theres a damn good chance of lots of goals? I guess ill figure it out in the longrun, but having somewhere to start would eb helpful too.


anyways, let me know what you think, good or bad. feel free to try it and let me know what happens.



thanks for reading

[Torrezno]

Seems reasonable pingüino, but as you just asid you will not be able to apply to all games and you will leed to carefully select them. For example, las week Arsenal and Chelsea matches with los of goals would not suit yogur strategy. May be Italian league is a good place to work it out (not too many goals I guess).

As for the odds i cannot help you because I do not work tose 1,5 markets, but we ave active participante in the forum tradin the 2,5 Inés that may be can help you.

Good luck

[TRADER68]

I think you will struggle to find games giving you the odds you need for your back bet.The prices are basically built round the stats.To gain these odds the games will appear to have little goals.As Torrezno says some of the other leagues other than the top ones in Britain may offer you your best chance of success.Teams that wont go full on from kick off.This is only my opinion and the fact you are showing the markets respect and not jumping straight in suggests you will find a profitable strategy.
I wish you the best of luck.

[Mugged]

Agree with the posts above really.

Maybe you should look at the french leagues as I've found early goals almost unheard of in that league.

Also, may be pertinent to consider that if there are 2 goals in first 15 minutes, you are going to lose a lot of money using the strategy you have outlined above.

So game selection will be critical. Why not lay the over 2.5's as liability is less that way and you have more options to get out.

Also, in games where not many goals are expected, you can be looking as low as 8's for the 0-0. I find the best prices to go in on 0-0 is 11. This way, you get your full stake as a free bet after first 5 minutes or so by closing liability.

Then I take little bits out on the way down. Because it's lower prices, you get more for your hedge.

Hope I have explained myself adequately, and good luck with this

[bp_me]

This way, if the game remains goalless, then im guaranteed a profit. job done. If the game has a goal, then i back the under1.5 at a higher price. because the odds should move out.


there is one downfall to this, as there will be with anything. if the first goal is scored say in the 87th minute... the odds for under1.5 wont be good enough for me to green up on. at this point, ill red up instead and admit a small loss.

You will need to be ready to back the under 1.5 as soon as the goal is scored. This is when it's price peaks. As the game goes on the price will continue to shorten even after the first goal is scored (obviously the market closes if there is a second).

In this situation I'm not sure you can green enough to more than partly cover the stake you lose in the correct score market as remember that you need to green the 1.5 market or you have even higher potential loss.

Ideally if there is to be a goal you need it to be before half time so you can trade (single or two point scalping) the under 1.5 market at half time. If it happens in the second half of the game you may find it very difficult to trade out of sucessfully.

I dont think you will get 20.0 on very many correct score markets. About 10-10.5 seems typical pre-game in any I look at.

[pingu]

heya, just a quick update. started betting on 2 simultaneous matches today. theyre still ongoing, but ive hedged and closed one with a definate profit. that was on the aston villa match. as soon as goal was scored, i placed my final bet then locked in a profit. the odds didnt move as much as i anticipated, and for that reason, I see this method as probably not viable. I know that was the general consensus here as well, but i had to see for myself. i was risking practically nothing anyway. I think im going to make 4-9p from that match in total....


the other match im betting on just went to half time, and remains goalless. im trying a strategy i read about (so yes im being wary with it). but it sounds good to me...

care an critisise the weak points of this strategy?

basicly, i lay the following scores: 1-1, 2-2, 3-3 prematch.
then, after a goal (straight after) i lay both teams playing, as the odds should have gone out on the draw.

for this match, the odds were:

1-1: 13.0 : staked £0.38
2-2: 38.0 : staked £0.13
3-3: 260.0 : staked £0.02

I also layed any unquoted, thinking that that would cover draws. After having done so i thought it was stupid as games will rarely reach 4-4 or 5-5 etc... and if they do then so be it, i can wait for the next game. however, the odds were 5.50, and i staked £0.91

now im waiting to lay both teams after a goal is scored. at time of writing (its currently half time) their odds are 1.65 and 12. if i layed them at the correct prices now, i would make a small loss. 11 pence loss before commision. however, if no goal is scored, im not placing any more bets and my 4 lay bets (will be 3 lay bets in future for this strat) will all win, so ill get profit. and if a goal is scored, the odds on the daw will lengthen, and between the 2 teams that means they will shorten (when added together) so i should be able to lay them to lock in a profit.

I think that this is a sound strategy, and at the moment i cant really think of a time when it loses other than scores such as 4-4, 5-5 etc. im a complete newb at this however, and am still walking on eggshells trying to get into this atm, so if you see anything wrong with this id be happy to know! thanks.


Oh, the match im doing the second trade on is juventus V sturm graz.

[The Joker]

Pingu my simple advice would be to back 0-0 at start of game and lay U 1.5 after 10 mins.

Game selection is everything and you can get some excellent sites outa tradepedia, betterbettor is good also though I have read that its stats may not be upto date as of the present. Indeed with anything inplay if you don't have pics you are betting blind! you must gauge the game and go from there


statistical analysis - results of analysis
Overall DataAll Seasons All Teams
Score at 15 mins
Score at 15 mins Occurrences Average %
0-0 1714 1.41 71.1
1-0 333 7.23 13.8
0-1 259 9.3 10.8
1-1 45 53.53 1.9
2-0 37 65.11 1.5
0-2 11 219 0.5
2-1 5 481.8 0.2
0-3 2 1204.5 0.1
3-0 1 2409 0
1-2 1 2409 0
2-2 1 2409 0

Total 2409

Can a mod please format the figures above so they show correctly ?? I have tried and you will see on the edit that they show ok but not when the post is made

[nigelbleddfa]

Your strategy is far too complicated, Pingu. After Juventus scored tonight, you would have had to lay Sturm Graz at over 100. What would have happened to your position if Sturm Graz had recovered and won the game ?

Betfair markets are closely related and there are rarely major discrepancies which can give rise to significant profit.

The strategy referred to by The Joker above is much simpler but even his can be blown apart if a goal is scored in the first minute of the game.

The reality is that we have all spent countless hours on trying to come up with betting systems that guarantee wins. The truth is that we never find them because of the efficiency of the markets.

I am not trying to discourage you from trying to find the "Magic Bullet" as the more you look for it, the more you will learn. So, keep trying but try to keep things simple if you can

[Cran]

please format the figures above so they show correctly ?

statistical analysis - results of analysis
Overall DataAll Seasons All Teams

Score at 15 mins

Score - Occurrences -- Average ------ %
- 0-0 -------- 1714 ----- 1.41 -- 71.15
- 1-0 --------- 333 ----- 7.23 -- 13.82
- 0-1 --------- 259 ----- 9.30 -- 10.75
- 1-1 ---------- 45 ---- 53.53 --- 1.87
- 2-0 ---------- 37 ---- 65.11 --- 1.54
- 0-2 ---------- 11 --- 219.00 --- 0.46
- 2-1 ----------- 5 --- 481.80 --- 0.21
- 0-3 ----------- 2 -- 1204.50 --- 0.08
- 3-0 ----------- 1 -- 2409.00 --- 0.04
- 1-2 ----------- 1 -- 2409.00 --- 0.04
- 2-2 ----------- 1 -- 2409.00 --- 0.04

-------- Total 2409

[pingu]

nigel, after juventus scored, i was able to lay juventus at 1.19 and sturm at 75. £4.20 on juventus and £0.07 on sturm.

It ended in overall profit.

http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/9655/tmpgd.png

there wasnt much liquidity straight after the goal was scored, but enough for my micro stakes. if i got in a bit earlier (i faffed about for a little too long) i could have got sturm at 65.

the biggest problem i can see with this is not having enough money to match your own with higher stakes. would backing the draw almost always be almost the same as laying both teams?

I dont see how its too complicated im sorry. im just trying to think of longterm +EV trades. this one seems to be to me as long as theres enough liquidity...

[The Joker]

Your strategy is far too complicated, Pingu. After Juventus scored tonight, you would have had to lay Sturm Graz at over 100. What would have happened to your position if Sturm Graz had recovered and won the game ?

Betfair markets are closely related and there are rarely major discrepancies which can give rise to significant profit.

The strategy referred to by The Joker above is much simpler but even his can be blown apart if a goal is scored in the first minute of the game.

The reality is that we have all spent countless hours on trying to come up with betting systems that guarantee wins. The truth is that we never find them because of the efficiency of the markets.

I am not trying to discourage you from trying to find the "Magic Bullet" as the more you look for it, the more you will learn. So, keep trying but try to keep things simple if you can

Have to agree with Nigel here, I look for value as the game progresses and react accordingly, Nigel has been a football bettor for a while and you can do alot worse that to listen to his advice, having said that the Welsh did produce dirty Sanchez !!



Or was that the Yanks

[The Joker]

nigel, after juventus scored, i was able to lay juventus at 1.19 and sturm at 75. £4.20 on juventus and £0.07 on sturm.

It ended in overall profit.

http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/9655/tmpgd.png

there wasnt much liquidity straight after the goal was scored, but enough for my micro stakes. if i got in a bit earlier (i faffed about for a little too long) i could have got sturm at 65.

the biggest problem i can see with this is not having enough money to match your own with higher stakes. would backing the draw almost always be almost the same as laying both teams?

I dont see how its too complicated im sorry. im just trying to think of longterm +EV trades. this one seems to be to me as long as theres enough liquidity...

Very Cool Pingu!

By the way my lads love it when you slide on your stomach But they don't understand you (Strange that )

[TRADER68]

In your second game had sturm graz scored in the first half there is a good chance the draw odds would of shortened not lenghthened.The earlier the goal the more likely this would of happened.This would be the case in most matches with a relatively strong favourite,as most would be of the opinion there was plenty of time for the favourite to get back in the game.Obviously as the game continues there would eventually be a point where it would lenghthen.
I am glad to see you made a profit