Dont You just hate it when this happens

[ron]

Experience is the answer to most 'What if...' scenarios.

If you had backed first looking for a one ticker and the price shot down you would have rubbed your hands and taken the profit.

It is always fast and furious in the final minutes before a race, traders are doing their thing at the same time as punters and some on-course bookmakers. Gaff track money can be all over the place during this time.

For me it is a big Risk vs Reward issue - if you went in looking only for one tick every time you would need a pretty decent strike rate to compensate for when the price goes the other way.

your right if i had backed and then the price shot down i would have been very happy, it has happened to me in the past, i nearly always use offsets, and have been matched 5/6 ticks down as it goes whooosh.

i am a scalper its my style, i always look for the 1 tick, i just look to repeat it as many times as i can pre-race, yesterdays loss of £15.78 was my highest for a long while, last being when i got caught out by the early suspension in a usa race which amounted to a loss of -72 un-hedge with the nag winning and i having laid it.

[Scotty_73]

The only times I have let trades go in play are when distance is over 2miles and I laid first so looking for price to go out also horse must not be Fav. with the longer races the price swings are not so drastic in first min or 2 and there is always chance horse can fall and you win the lot, but you did the right thing by taking hit as you can make 15 back in one race but a few hundred quid would take a little longer!

[attheraces]

This is interesting,from an ex-trading software vendor:

10 Common Mistakes Made by New Traders

1. Predicting and trading in different timescales

You must make sure that you match the timescale of your prediction of the price’s direction with the amount of time that you hold your position. For instance, a classic mistake would be if you are trading the favourite’s price 3 minutes before the race is due to start and you see that the price is being Backed heavily and is going down. You think that this horse has a really good chance of winning the race so you decide to Back also. WRONG!!! If you do that you are basing a short term trading decision on a long term view of the price. The timescale of your prediction of the price, i.e that the price will go down because the horse will win the race, is different from the intended timescale of your trade, which is to trade out of it with a profit in a minute or less. Unless you’re going to hold the bet until the race has finished then you can’t base trading decisions on where you think the price will be when the race has finished.

2. Not getting out instantly

Short term traders don’t realize just how short term you have to be to avoid the losses. To trade without knowing anything about what is going on, you have to assume that any movement against you is going to carry on going against you in the most painful way it can. And this isn’t to drastic of an assumption, as anyone that’s held onto a losing trade only to see it get worse and worse will agree. Without any knowledge to the contrary you have to assume the worst, and the only protection against this is not to be in harm’s way: The less time you’re in a position, the less can go wrong. Take your profits quickly and your scratch trades and losses even quicker. By quickly I mean instantly, profit scratch or loss you should be out, or at least have your counter trade in, within 10 or 20 seconds at the most.

3. Not doing scratch trades

There is a tendency amongst new traders to see the scratch trade as a waste of time. The scratch trade is where you lay and back the horse at the same price. Once someone has done a scratch trade, only to then see the price go 2 or 3 ticks the right way they tend to stop doing them. The new trader can’t get it out of his mind that the scratch trade just cost him a profit and stops doing them. However, human nature, some more than others, will always make us dwell on what we just missed out on without appreciating what we’ve got. A scratch trade that gets you out of the market before the price suddenly turns against you is soon forgotten about as the trader quietly congratulates his trading skills and quickly forgets all about it. A missed profit has a different effect on many people than a saved loss of the same size has. The fewer scratch trades you do the more losses you will have, that is a fact, so therefore you need more profits just to get back the extra that you’re losing. It’s far better to not lose and then to not win than it is to lose and then win.

4. Letting losing trades ride as bets

To be a successful trader you must be taking profits and losses of roughly the same size, but having more profits than losses, the scratch trade taking the place of the losses. As soon as you start to let your losses get bigger than your profits you’re creating an uphill battle for yourself because then you have to have lots more profits than losses just to break even. The absolute worst thing you can do is hold on to a bet because you were losing on it and let it ride as the race runs. Doing this is total insanity from a risk reward ratio and is gambling at it’s worst. If you want to gamble then gamble but at least do it properly. Don’t do a hybrid mix of trading and gambling where you’re doing each one badly. To make small one and two tick profits and then risk your whole bank on the outcome of a horserace because you couldn’t take a small one or two tick loss is stupid. You know that in the long run it’s going to end in tears so why do it? There’s no point in winning 9 times and losing once if your loss is 50 times the size of your profit. Anyone with such a complete lack of discipline not only will lose but deserves to lose.

5. Reading form and watching racing

As a short term scalper the last things you want to do is read form and watch the racing on television. Those that wish to gamble on the outcome of the races should of course do these things but a trader should avoid the formbook and the television. Not only are they distractions from trading but they implant biases in the trader’s mind that detract from his ability to concentrate solely on the numbers and the patterns of movement that they are creating, leading to scenario 1. The scalper shouldn’t read the racing paper or switch on the television and should only log in to Betfair at the most 20 minutes before the first race.

6. Wanting to enjoy the racing

Trading is often described as boring and detracting from the enjoyment of racing. This may be the case but horseracing is of no concern to the scalper so this comment is meaningless. Horseracing has nothing to do with what the scalper is doing. Wanting to enjoy the racing or enjoy your betting is fine but you cannot trade successfully at the same time. You can do one or the other but not both. Trading requires concentration and dedication and if you’re watching horseracing at the same time then you are being unprofessional.

7. Over thinking their trades

Most traders over think which way the market is going to go which has 2 drawbacks: firstly, they don’t do enough trades which cuts down their potential to make money and secondly when they do eventually pull the trigger they have put so much thought and effort into their trade that they fall in love with it. They are unwilling to get out of such a trade with an almost instant scratch trade or an almost instant small loss. It’s as if doing that would be to embarrassing after waiting so long and putting so much time into it. This is why people ride their losses due to their inability to accept so quickly that they were wrong. Instead of entering into a trade with the confidence that you are right, each trade should instead be entered with the assumption that you are wrong with a willingness to react correctly if indeed you are wrong. As much as you may have built up your reasoning for the trade you just did, you must remember that you don’t actually know anything about what is going on and it’s ok to be wrong.

8. They don’t use .............

Not using ...... when scalping is by far the biggest mistake anyone could make!They say necessity is the mother of invention and that’s definitely the case with ....... Having live price feeds and one click bet submission at any price, lay or back, gives the trader the absolute flexibility he needs to turn on a sixpence which the Betfair website and other trading applications don’t let you do. When traders use the competition they start thinking their gimmicky little weight of money indicator is actually going to tell them which way the market is going to go. After putting their faith in that or in some equally crap graph they fall in love with the bet like in point 6 and don’t react the way they should when it goes wrong.

9. Get distracted during races

It’s easy to get distracted by lots of different things when you’re trading but you must ignore everything. Don’t check your emails, don’t be on instant messenger and don’t go on the Betfair forum while the racing is on. To really get in the groove you have to concentrate on every race, moving onto the next race when that one is due to start. That slack period where you have just greened up on a race and then move onto the next race and there is still 10 minutes to go and everything is quite calm shouldn’t be used to do other things. That’s the time where you can sit back for a few minutes while nothing much is happening and relax a bit, but you must still watch the price and be aware of what is happening. Don’t take your eyes from the screen except to go for a piss. If you smoke then smoke in front of the computer or not at all, nipping out for a cigarette will cost you thousands of pounds over the course of a year. And don’t completely leave the moment by chatting online to others, don’t even answer the phone or check out other websites. Concentrate dammit! For 3 and a half hours you are a trader and nothing else, you’ll be surprised how much better you trade when you don’t allow any outside distractions of any kind, letting yourself be absorbed by what you are doing and really seeing the movements and imagining what they might do next.



Regards

[attheraces]

And finally no.10 (as the above post was over 1,000)

10. Wanting a profit of predetermined size

Many people decide how much they want to make out of a trade before they enter it and then set their exit price according to that rather than what it looks like they can reasonably get now. Wanting to make 2 ticks is great but putting your countertrade in 2 ticks higher than you just layed at and then sitting back waiting is gambling, not trading. It might go up, but it might go down, if you can’t get out straight away with a profit you should ask for a smaller profit. If you can’t get the smaller profit straight away you should scratch, and if you miss the scratch trade you should take a loss. If instead of all that you remain motionless with your countertrade still in at the same price waiting for your 2 tick profit then you are gambling and will have your share of profits but also your share of big losses.

Regards

[Ted]

Our concentration becomes frayed at the edges, need a cuppa a few times a day.

In your case, Scotty, U can beam yourself up to Gallifrey, discuss tactics with Davros.

Seriously tough one, but we all do it, must average one a week myself, have say RUK on when should have

had ATR on etc, usually the ladder is jumping all over the place, then I twig....................

[Ted]

Scotty your P/L loss post has vanished off the face of the earth

making my reply look nonsense ?

[Scotty_73]

Hi Ted

sorry I took it down... after posting felt a little embarrassed about it.... I had been making steady progress and this was kick in the teeth that is part of life with trading... just wanted to vent a little.

for those who are interested.... I was up 150 for the day.... and last race, I actually wasnt planning to trade as it was long day.. anyways... trade went 2 ticks against.. I waited to try to scratch... they jumped... I tried to get matched on the way down and could only cover about 20% before it really went down... and so I could have taken about 150 loss of total 190 liability but stayed in just incase... was photo finish but unfortunately for me the wrong way round...

150 profit to 40 loss in 30sec...

today green of 70 with no trades in play... so happy to get back on track... I actually couldnt sleep last night just thinking about it but went for long run and felt better

[Ted]

Scotty, Big of you to post a human snag we all fall foul of, pleased U'r back to normal today.

I hate it when I do a days work for nothing, about a week ago miss traded 4 footer games on the bounce,

then botched the sat afternoon in-run games (play 5 or 6 at same time) wouldn't like to post it on here

though.

It's just unavoidable sometimes. It's all in the game, doesn't affect me much nowadays.

PS the good lady definately don't hear about it, can only give them good news.....ha ha

[J.S.]

Big up respect Scotty

[Quo]

Scotty, thanks for putting the P/L shot back up, certainly not something to be embarrased about, feels like shyte, we all been there. A good run of decent greens and wham bam, one big loss whipes your confidence away.

Better to show reality than showing nothing but green screens to make people think things are easy, we all know who the snake oil salesmen are that I am referring to

[whiffler]

And finally no.10 (as the above post was over 1,000)

10. Wanting a profit of predetermined size

Many people decide how much they want to make out of a trade before they enter it and then set their exit price according to that rather than what it looks like they can reasonably get now. Wanting to make 2 ticks is great but putting your countertrade in 2 ticks higher than you just layed at and then sitting back waiting is gambling, not trading. It might go up, but it might go down, if you can’t get out straight away with a profit you should ask for a smaller profit. If you can’t get the smaller profit straight away you should scratch, and if you miss the scratch trade you should take a loss. If instead of all that you remain motionless with your countertrade still in at the same price waiting for your 2 tick profit then you are gambling and will have your share of profits but also your share of big losses.

Regards

My understanding is that this forum freely permits the discussion of other trading software. I therefore think it is fair to point out that the first time I saw these "10 common mistakes..." was in the "Scalper" which was published by Adam Toad from Scumbag Traders. As the original article was marked as copyright of Scumbag Traders, I guess that he should get the credit. Incidentally, very wise words.....

[attheraces]

My understanding is that this forum freely permits the discussion of other trading software. I therefore think it is fair to point out that the first time I saw these "10 common mistakes..." was in the "Scalper" which was published by Adam Toad from Scumbag Traders. As the original article was marked as copyright of Scumbag Traders, I guess that he should get the credit. Incidentally, very wise words.....

Did you read quotes 1-9?(incidentally no one else is attempting to take any credit, as stated at the beginning of the post, it was from an ex trading software vendor,the man you mentioned)

Regards

[Keefter]

This happens to me everyday almost at some point. You enter the market and get insta-fisted. Its just a little bad luck with timing. When it happens there should be no debate at all over what to do. before that race starts you should be out of the market. Take the loss on the chin. You're a tradernot a gambler. If the odds of the horse reflect its true chance of winning then you're looking at around a 30% chance. Just get out. -15 is much easier to swallow than -360

[whiffler]

Did you read quotes 1-9?(incidentally no one else is attempting to take any credit, as stated at the beginning of the post, it was from an ex trading software vendor,the man you mentioned)

Regards

Yes I know. I wasn't implying you were trying to take credit. No offence intended. And yes, I did read the previous 9 items. What drew my attention to the post was the fact that coincidentally, I had been reviewing these words only a few days before and so I was amazed to see them quoted again. The previous scribblings of the trader in question are rather difficult to get hold of nowadays, so I am pleased that you have posted them for others to see. In my view, if anybody is contemplating trading seriously, then they should read those articles, as they really tell it like it is - difficult.

PS. Hi everybody. Have I lost my virginity yet?

PPS. Actually, I think there was a slight error in my original post. The quoted words were published by AT, but copyright RT!!! Just nitpicking.

[ron]

This is interesting,from an ex-trading software vendor:

10 Common Mistakes Made by New Traders



5. Reading form and watching racing

As a short term scalper the last things you want to do is read form and watch the racing on television. Those that wish to gamble on the outcome of the races should of course do these things but a trader should avoid the formbook and the television. Not only are they distractions from trading but they implant biases in the trader’s mind that detract from his ability to concentrate solely on the numbers and the patterns of movement that they are creating, leading to scenario 1. The scalper shouldn’t read the racing paper or switch on the television and should only log in to Betfair at the most 20 minutes before the first race.



[Regards

I disagree with the above on the watching TV bit, i have ATR on so that i know when the race is about to begin, some can run over a good few minutes, others the commentators will talk horses up or down and it can be seen to affect prices imo, if not Tv then willyhill radio is a good sub.